E.J. Fagan
@ejfagan.com
3.8K followers 1.6K following 1.8K posts
Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Illinois Chicago. Author of The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics. Also, baseball.
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Reposted by E.J. Fagan
bbkogan.bsky.social
CBO fy2025 projections for deficit/spending/etc are out

Some issues make simple comparisons apples-to-oranges, so I'll do apples-to-apples & explain in the thread

Relative to pre-Trump projections:
-Primary deficits ⬆️ $34 bn
-program spending ⬆️ $97 bn
-revenues ⬆️ $63 bn
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
	2025 (January estimate, adjusted to fix issues)	2025 CBO estimate (remove student loan one-time revaluation)		2025 (adjusted for student loans) vs. 2025 projection (adjusted to fix issues)
Spending	7061	7166		105
Program spending	6108	6205		97
Interest	953	961		9
Revenue	5163	5226		63
Primary deficit	945	979		34
Total deficit	1898	1940		42
ejfagan.com
Just to clarify how dumb and political it is to bring in the Texas National Guard to allegedly protect a federal facility in Broadview, here is the distance from the Illinois National Guard base nearby compared with Texas.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
davidcorn.bsky.social
It was taxpayers’ money. Did Homan give it back? If he kept it, did he declare it on his taxes?
markfollman.bsky.social
Tom Homan, head of ICE, accepted $50k from undercover FBI agents last year, reportedly a bribe in a sting operation. All cash, in a paper bag. Pam Bondi, reading from a script, insists Homan did nothing wrong—yet she refuses to answer any questions about what happened to that cash? Really?
thetnholler.bsky.social
WATCH — @whitehouse.senate.gov : “What became of the $50,000 in cash in that Cava bag? Did the FBI get it back from Homan?”

AG PAM BONDI: *LASHES OUT aggressively, avoids answering entirely* 🤷🏼‍♀️
ejfagan.com
In most cases, a party out of power makes promises about macroeconomics that it can't really deliver on. Prices, economic growth, unemployment etc are mostly out of the control of policymakers.

Democrats in 2029 are going to be able to lift tariffs and pretty quickly lower the cost of living.
warren.senate.gov
Housing is too expensive to build and too expensive to afford.

Donald Trump's solution? Make it even MORE expensive with his chaotic tariffs.

Americans can't afford Donald Trump's housing market.
ejfagan.com
Ugh. Blame my not sleepy toddler.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
brianmfloyd.bsky.social
the guy who caught cal raleigh’s homer was wearing a shirt that said dump 61 here and he immediately took it off and had a shirt that said dump 62 here
ejfagan.com
Fun fact: the Illinois National Guard has a large depot about fifteen feet away from the Broadview town border. You could literally park there and walk to the protest sites. But instead Trump is sending these winners from Texas.
ronfilipkowski.bsky.social
Greg Abbott sends the elite Meal Team 6 from the Texas National Guard into Illinois.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
My item on this suggested that while it could be how inept Trump always is, what I suspect is going on is that the GOP has just lost the ability to talk to anyone outside their strongest supporters. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/underminin...
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
(Politico) - One week into the government shutdown, top Republican leaders appear to have lost the plot.

#RepublicansInDisarray @politico.com
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
faineg.bsky.social
i have met a number of pigs, including pigs i later went on to eat (we have small farmers in our family) and quite frankly, getting to know pigs has made me feel even less bad about eating them

they would 100% eat us if given the chance
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
chrislhayes.bsky.social
Just go ahead and delete article 1 entirely while you’re at it.
peark.es
Well that's not how appropriations work at all

*WHITE HOUSE TO TRANSFER TARIFF REVENUE TO FUND WIC: LEAVITT
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
bcburden.bsky.social
The 2024 @electionstudies.bsky.social has the share of "pure independents" in the US at its lowest level since 1952 (7%)
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
robinsonmeyer.bsky.social
NEW: Trump is moving to kill all funding for proposed Texas and Louisiana mega-hubs to capture CO₂ from the atmosphere

The bipartisan-backed hubs represented a rare clean tech industry where the US was on the cutting edge

by @emilypont.bsky.social for @heatmap.news

heatmap.news/politics/doe...
Trump to Cancel Direct Air Capture Hubs in Texas, Louisiana
A new list of grant cancellations obtained by Heatmap includes Climeworks and Heirloom projects funded by 2021 infrastructure law.
heatmap.news
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
bgrueskin.bsky.social
“A federal team in El Paso that once pursued child traffickers has been disbanded.

“A task force in Kansas focused on stemming fentanyl has been redirected.

“Highway checkpoints near the border—on roads identified as major drug-trafficking routes—have gone unstaffed”

🎁
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Trump’s Immigration Push Diverts U.S. Agents From Drug, Money and Sex-Crime Cases
Federal investigators are resigning, and morale is low, as they juggle complex cases and detain migrants.
www.wsj.com
ejfagan.com
There’s way too much literature on issue ownership. My opinion is that voters sense which party cares most about an issue relative to other issues and trust them to prioritize it. Voter trust is derived from the party’s core priorities and especially social/interest group coalitions.
ejfagan.com
The gap is very stable over time though. In fact, really stable between left-right parties across countries.

It's a big reason why I believe spatial models are a bit oversold. It matters more which issues are salient, often outside of a party's control.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
ejfagan.com
Very skeptical of this question wording. My guess is that the party out of power will always look worse when asked about a plan, because one does not reasonably exist until at least the presidential nomination campaigns.

“Trust to handle” is the classic wording.
ejfagan.com
Players don’t choke, managers do.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
heathercherone.bsky.social
Pritzker is also furious: “Should National Governors Association leadership choose to remain silent, Illinois will have no choice but to withdraw from the organization.”
Gov. JB Pritzker’s letter to the National Governors Association
ejfagan.com
This project is still a long way off, but: policy topics of all social science papers (very broadly defined) compared with all CRS reports, plus within-field comparisons. Human society = anthropology, political science, area studies, etc.

With @alexanderfurnas.com and a bunch more.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
chrisgeidner.bsky.social
"Transparency and faith in the rule of law" are at issue here, Ellis says, noting that having her name on opinions keeps her "from going off the rails, because I have to do it publicly. Here, I think it is important that these officers and agents, at some point along the way, could be identified."
ejfagan.com
I've started taking attendance and banning technology in the classroom this semester. The results have been impressive. Students can still learn.

I also believe that it's my responsibility to make class fun and interesting. We're performers as much as instructors.

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/06/u...
Harvard Students Skip Class and Still Get High Grades, Faculty Say
www.nytimes.com
ejfagan.com
A great deal was made during the 2024 post-mortem that Republicans had become the party of the cool, edgy youths while Democrats had become woke and square.
gbbranstetter.bsky.social
Some advertising you just can't buy
MAGA Congresswoman: Bad Bunnys super bowl halftime show a demonic sexual performance
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
chrisgeidner.bsky.social
NEW: I'm listening in on a second new lawsuit out of Illinois today, addressing First Amendment freedoms surrounding protests, including press and religious claims.

Judge Sara Ellis, an Obama appointee, is hearing the TRO motion and has found the plaintiffs, for TRO purposes, have standing.
IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE NORTHERN DISTRICT OF ILLINOIS
EASTERN DIVISION
CHICAGO HEADLINE CLUB, BLOCK CLUB CHICAGO, CHICAGO NEWSPAPER GUILD LOCAL 34071, NABET-CWA LOCAL 54041, ILLINOIS PRESS ASSOCIATION, RAVEN GEARY, CHARLES THRUSH, STEPHEN HELD, DAVID BLACK, WILLIAM PAULSON, AUTUMN REIDY-HAMER, and LEIGH KUNKEL, on behalf of themselves and others similarly situated,
Plaintiffs,
V.
KRISTI NOEM, Secretary, U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS); TODD LYONS,
Acting Director, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE); MARCOS CHARLES,
Acting Executive Associate Director, Enforcement and Removal Operations, ICE;
RUSSELL HOTT, Chicago Field Office
Director, ICE; RODNEY S. SCOTT,
Commissioner, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP); GREGORY BOVINO, Chief Border Patrol Agent, CBP; DANIEL
DRISCOLL, Director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF);
WILLIAM K. MARSHALL III, Director of the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP); PAMELA BONDI, Attorney General of the United States;
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE; UNIDENTIFIED FEDERAL OFFICER DEFENDANTS; UNIDENTIFIED FEDERAL AGENCY DEFENDANTS; and
DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States,
No. 25-cv-12173
PLAINTIFFS' COMPLAINT FOR INJUCTIVE AND DECLARATORY RELIEF