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erikvoeten.bsky.social
Erik Voeten
@erikvoeten.bsky.social
2.4K followers 360 following 70 posts
Georgetown prof. Expect content on international politics, climate, soccer, and other random stuff. @goodauth.bsky.social editor. Views my own. Website: https://erikvoeten.georgetown.domains/
erikvoeten.georgetown.domains
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adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Aug 3
The annoying spam texts destroying the Democratic brand:

$678M raised through those spam tactics

$282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies.

$11M to actual campaigns (1.6%)

The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.
The Mothership Vortex: An Investigation Into the Firm at the Heart of the Democratic Spam Machine
How a single consulting firm extracted $282 million from a network of spam PACs while delivering just $11 million to actual campaigns.
open.substack.com
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erikvoeten.bsky.social
Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jul 28
New UN ideal point estimates available. These are for the first time based on years rather than UNGA sessions. For more, see here: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...
dataverse.harvard.edu
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Reposted by Erik Voeten
simonhix.bsky.social
Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · Jun 26
This is fantastic. Very excited by this development in European Political Science.

Please come and join us. Get involved. Sign up to the listserv. Etc
epssnet.bsky.social
EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · Jun 26
🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨

We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.

🔗 epssnet.org

Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.

🧵
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Reposted by Erik Voeten
fgenovese.bsky.social
Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · Jun 17
🚨Global public action (climate!) is most effective when countries do it together yet we're in a period of IO backlash rooted in left-behind places

Does it mean all left-behind regions hate IOs the same?

@patrickbayer.bsky.social & I have a paper accepted @bjpols.bsky.social abt this🧵

osf.io/rtymv
Climate Policy Costs, Regional Politics and Backlashagainst International Cooperation by Patrick Bayer and Federica Genovese. This paper investigates the conditions under which subnational concerns shape public assessments of international climate governance. In line with existing literature, we maintain that costly policy adjustments fuel negative views of international cooperation in policy exposed regions. At the same time, we argue that the more resentful relations are with the national center of politics, the more sympathetic these regions areto international institutions and global governance. Based on geographically targeted survey data from theUnited Kingdom, we find that fossil fuel-intensive regions with strong, institutionalized regional politics have more positive assessments of international climate cooperation than structurally similar regions where regional political institutions are less pronounced. The findings show that regional politics characteristics are key for understanding climate policy beliefs among citizens that bear the brunt of adjustments to international climate agreements
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erikvoeten.bsky.social
Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 14
Thanks, Federica!
erikvoeten.bsky.social
Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 12
The US does not have to exploit this advantage. It could exercise strategic restraint and think more long-term. There is little evidence of such thinking in the current Trump Administration. Thus, we see energy dominance as a structural factor that facilitates disruptive foreign policies
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erikvoeten.bsky.social
Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 12
For example, the EU is not going to apply reciprocal tariffs to the main products it imports from the US (oil and gas), which puts it at a bargaining disadvantage.
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 12
Oil and gas create different types of interdependencies than trade in other goods. Oil importers have a strong interest in global stability, as disturbances in price or access can have large economic and political consequences. Exporters have temptations to leverage their position for concessions.
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 12
At that time, the US still had an oil export ban. Now it has become the world's leading oil and gas exporter. Among the five leading US export categories are crude oil, gasoline, and LNG. The trade relationship with the EU is even more dominated by oil and gas.
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 12
We draw on an article we wrote for ISQ about a decade ago, which documents that (and why) oil exporters tend to be less cooperative in the international arena. academic.oup.com/isq/article-...
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doi-org.proxy.library.georgetown.edu
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erikvoeten.bsky.social
Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 12
I have a new short piece in Foreign Affairs with @profmichaelross.bsky.social arguing that "the United States’ emergence as the world’s leading oil and gas producer is a critical and often neglected element of today’s global disorder." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Petrostate America
The downsides of energy independence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
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erikvoeten.bsky.social
Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 10
I really hope the new editorial team of the Journal of Politics is able to improve the speed of the process, and I wish them well. I know very well how hard it is but it is essential for academic publishing to do better,
erikvoeten.bsky.social
Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 10
In the meantime, a different paper on climate rulings and stock market valuations has been published that was written after mine but has now been out for over 6 months.
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 10
Careerwise, this doesn't affect me. But it would for a more junior person. Moreover, this paper is topical, and I would have liked to affect current debates. It's really hard to write about current events when publication moves this slowly.
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 10
On process: The submission and R&R process was smooth, if a little slow. However, this piece was conditionally accepted on February 5, 2024. It took almost 1,5 years to appear on First View online. There were no issues with replication or anything else.
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 10
This suggests that investors do update their valuations of the most directly affected firms (e.g. the likely beneficiaries of subsidies or targets of phase outs) but not of firms whose exposure to policy change is less unambiguous.
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 10
I find that plaintiff victories have modest but economically significant positive effects on renewable energy stocks and similarly sized negative effects on coal stocks but no significant effect on “green” firms or major oil and gas producers. Plaintiff losses have no significant effect on asset prices.
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 10
The idea is that investors may update their beliefs about the likelihood of climate policies that could affect the valuation of firms whose profits are sensitive to such policies.
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 10
The paper examines the effect of domestic court rulings that (fail to) hold governments accountable for meeting their climate obligations by examining the impact of court rulings on stock market valuations of green and brown companies.
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 10
Global climate commitments are difficult to enforce. Some NGOs and individuals have gone to domestic courts to hold governments accountable for their promises. Does this work?
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erikvoeten.bsky.social
Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Jun 10
(Finally) out in the Journal of Politics: Do Domestic Climate Rulings Make Climate Commitments More Credible? Evidence from Stock Market Returns." A quick thread on paper and process www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....
University of Chicago Press Journals: Cookie absent
www.journals.uchicago.edu
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · May 1
And the optimal friend tariff should be set based on historical friend deficits.
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Reposted by Erik Voeten
voosen.me
Paul Voosen @voosen.me · Apr 11
BREAKING from @science.org: The Trump admin is seeking to kill nearly all climate research at NOAA, its climate science agency.

Its near-final budget proposal would end all NOAA research labs, academic institutes, and regional climate centers. And it wants to fully end the NOAA Research division.
Trump seeks to end climate research at premier U.S. climate agency
White House aims to end NOAA’s research office; NASA also targeted
www.science.org
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Apr 10
Trump’s policies are terrible for even the people who support him. Episode 34276 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Texas Oil Executives Are Frustrated at Trump for Crushing Crude Prices
The angry mutterings at the Permian Basin Petroleum Association’s “Spring Swing” golf tournament this week weren’t all about missed putts or lost balls. The Texas oilmen on the fairways had a more ser...
www.bloomberg.com
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erikvoeten.bsky.social
Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · Apr 4
Important and yet another illustration of both how pointless and harmful these tariffs are.
cullenhendrix.bsky.social
Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · Apr 4
What are countries like Côte d'Ivoire supposed to do? 90% of their exports to the U.S. are cocoa beans and natural rubber - can you build those behind the tariff wall?

No.

My latest for @piie.com on the disaster these #tariffs may mean for many resource-dependent developing economies.
piie.com
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · Apr 4
The new tariffs do not mirror tariffs developing countries impose on the US, nor account for different economic conditions & fiscal realities shaping tariff regimes in poorer countries—& ignore basic realities of institutional capacity, resource endowment, & geography. By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social:
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