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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 1d

Impact on public budgets is another thing to watch, especially with all the construction coming up in 🇩🇪 (rail, bridges etc.). Public procurement is an important lever (cf Buy European discussion), but this also makes things more expensive.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 1d

Trade policy is an important part of industrial strategy, and tariffs are an instrument, but interventions should be targeted. There needs to be a much clearer theory of how this helps the economy and not just the sector.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 1d

For 🇪🇺, this doesn’t look strategic: Steel is a commodity that can be imported from many places at high quality (including 🇯🇵 🇧🇷 🇹🇷). On the geoeconomic side: Specialised steels used for defence etc are often produced domestically afaik, and dependency doesn’t look like a huge risk here.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 1d

Tariffs on steel are good for steel makers, but bad for anyone making things from steel - also in 🇪🇺. Evidence from Trump I: steel tariffs created an estimated 1000 jobs in steel making and cost 75000 downstream (carmaking, machinery…) - with much more added value. econofact.org/steel-tariff...

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 2d

New vicious cycle unlocked: France is unable to act, is outvoted, unpopular outcomes drive anti-EU sentiment, this makes France less able to act.

Camille Gijs @camgijs.bsky.social · 2d

What France's collapse means for EU trade policy

"France will increasingly be seen as unreliable and unyielding — giving Germany and others more influence and leadership at this crucial time for Europe," said Georgina Wright, from the German Marshall Fund.

Liveblog:
www.politico.eu/article/fran...

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigns — live updates

France’s fifth government in three years resigns just 12 hours after being appointed.

www.politico.eu

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Reposted by Etienne Höra

D64 @d-64.org · 6d

Ohne private Kommunikation entsteht eine Atmosphäre der Selbstzensur.

„Wir schaffen damit eine Infrastruktur, die autokratische Staaten in und außerhalb Europas zur Verfolgung von Oppositionellen und zur Unterdrückung von Kritik nutzen könnten“, so @sveawindwehr.bsky.social

#ChatkontrolleStoppen

Chatkontrolle: Zivilgesellschaft warnt vor massiven Grundrechtseinschränkungen | D64 – Zentrum für digitalen Fortschritt

"Die sogenannte Chatkontrolle untergräbt Grundrechte, ohne den Schutz von Betroffenen zu verbessern" erklärt Svea Windwehr, Co-Vorsitzende von D64.

d-64.org

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 7d

Online launch event today 14:00 CEST, register here: bertelsmann-stiftung-de.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 9d

We obviously disagree on the facts in this particular case, but I‘d add that when a politician comes at a journalist for doing his job, my first response wouldn’t be ’wow, that person really needs to show they believe all the right things now‘.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 10d

Keep up the good work! For a well-informed EU debate on China we‘d need a lot more of this kind of coverage, and it’s in nobody’s interest to paper over these issues in the relationship.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 10d

Lots of other data and findings on this to be explored on our interactive website geoii.eu, and make sure to join our online discussion on 1 October.
bertelsmann-stiftung-de.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

The Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index

Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index analyzes evolving trade/investment ties between EU, US, China, Russia 2010-2023 #geoeconomics

geoii.eu

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 10d

Even with the EU's big lead in economic interconnectivity, Moldova's path to European integration is at high risk. The EU needs to reassess its leverage in the neighbourhood, as well as its ability to counter Russian influence.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 10d

The EU's intervention in the 2022 Moldovan energy crisis can be seen clearly in our data, although the EU had surpassed Russia as an energy supplier to Moldova in most years except 2021. However, the gas crisis earlier this year shows that big challenges remain.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 10d

The EU is extremely strong on the financial and investment side in Moldova, with an index score of 99 out of 100 and a steep upwards trend since 2010.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 10d

EU-Moldova interconnectivity across trade, investment and economic policy is by far the strongest, and Russia's overall footprint in the country has been declining between 2010 and 2023.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 10d

#Moldova votes today - a choice between European integration and Russian influence, and a crucial decision for the EU's Eastern neighbourhood. With the #GEOII, we have been mapping the #geoeconomic dimension of this systemic competition in the EU's neighbourhood. Our results show:

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Reposted by Etienne Höra

Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 13d

Everyone talks about #geoeconomics, we’re mapping it: Together with colleagues @bst-europe.bsky.social @wiiw.ac.at, ECIPE, we created the Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index, measuring the EU's trade, finance and policy footprint in its neighbourhood, compared to China, Russia & US. Main findings 🧵

Geoeconomic competition: EU remains most important partner in its neighbourhood, but its rivals are catching up. By Bertelsmann Stiftung, ECIPE, wiiw.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 13d

@dschwarzer.bsky.social @lnasisto.bsky.social @miriamkosmehl.bsky.social

Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 13d

6/ Curious to learn more? You can read our report geoii.eu/publikatione..., explore the data at our interactive website geoii.eu, and join us for our online launch event on 1 October, 14:00 CEST at this link: bertelsmann-stiftung-de.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

The Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index

Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index analyzes evolving trade/investment ties between EU, US, China, Russia 2010-2023 #geoeconomics

geoii.eu

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 13d

5/ One insight applies across contexts: Countries need tangible and reliable benefits from aligning with the EU rather than its rivals. This should include a clear commitment to further integration and strategically leveraging markets, capital and regulations to promote stability and cooperation.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 13d

4/ For the EU, none of this should lead to complacency as both regional and global actors seek to reshape the neighbourhood according to their interests. It often fails to translate its economic weight into influence. The reasons for this are as varied as the EU’s relations with its neighbours.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 13d

3/ Even before the start of the second Trump administration, the US has been withdrawing economically from the EU’s neighbourhood. Russia’s interconnectivity has declined, especially in most parts of Eastern Europe since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but remains high in some countries.

GEOII scores for EU and Russia in Eastern Europe compared.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 13d

2/ However, patterns vary within and between the regions. For instance, China is very present in Serbia and Montenegro, much less so in Albania. Sector-wise, China is rapidly catching up in investment and high-tech trade.

EU GEOII scores in Western Balkans, Türkiye, Eastern neighbours, Southern neighbours, 2010-2023

GEOII Scores for EU and China in the Western Balkans compared

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 13d

1/ EU remains the most interconnected actor across the board, in all sub-regions (Western Balkans, Eastern Partnership, Southern Neighbourhood, Türkiye) and across all sub-indices.

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 13d

Everyone talks about #geoeconomics, we’re mapping it: Together with colleagues @bst-europe.bsky.social @wiiw.ac.at, ECIPE, we created the Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index, measuring the EU's trade, finance and policy footprint in its neighbourhood, compared to China, Russia & US. Main findings 🧵

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Etienne Höra @etiennehoera.d-64.social · 22d

Draghi not mincing his words, but where are active policymakers on this? Improving things is hard if the official line still is that the EU got a great deal and other great opportunities await. Diversification through FTAs is good, but we really shouldn’t expect this to replace US demand.

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 22d

Draghi's speech with some home truths - critical of EU sluggishness and clear on the threats posed by the US and China

Draghi: The foundations of Europe’s growth—expanding world trade and high-value exports— have weakened further.

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