SleepingAristocrat
@feudaldozing.bsky.social
He/Him. Uruguayan econ undergrad trying to figure stuff out!
I genuinely wonder why Moskovitz seems to genuinely be so much better than the other tech billionaires.
January 5, 2026 at 3:15 AM
I genuinely wonder why Moskovitz seems to genuinely be so much better than the other tech billionaires.
Free will isn’t real, but emotions like hate are still necessary for rhe righteous to have, in that they act as fuel for righteous conflict and struggle.
The same applies to anger btw, another much maligned emotion
The same applies to anger btw, another much maligned emotion
it's good to base your politics on compassion for the oppressed but it's also ok to have a little hate in your heart, as a treat.
January 5, 2026 at 12:56 AM
Free will isn’t real, but emotions like hate are still necessary for rhe righteous to have, in that they act as fuel for righteous conflict and struggle.
The same applies to anger btw, another much maligned emotion
The same applies to anger btw, another much maligned emotion
One area where I struggle to understand my mutuals is that a non-trivial chunk are libs who are enamoured by Marxism. They’re smart, good faith people, so I try and take them seriously, but I’ll admit that I genuinely think it’s a theoretical framework that confuses more than it clarifies
January 3, 2026 at 2:41 PM
One area where I struggle to understand my mutuals is that a non-trivial chunk are libs who are enamoured by Marxism. They’re smart, good faith people, so I try and take them seriously, but I’ll admit that I genuinely think it’s a theoretical framework that confuses more than it clarifies
I do think that if he actually believes this (could just be hyperbolic larp) then he’s insane. Not exaggerating either
January 2, 2026 at 3:29 PM
I do think that if he actually believes this (could just be hyperbolic larp) then he’s insane. Not exaggerating either
Is there any evidence regarding if a country’s stock and housing prices are broadly cointegrated? Seems like a very important question to know for financial advisors.
December 29, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Is there any evidence regarding if a country’s stock and housing prices are broadly cointegrated? Seems like a very important question to know for financial advisors.
I’m in the weird area where I don’t think it’s a bubble for gettier reasons. Investors have been sold AGI which I highly doubt they’ll get. On the other hand AI slopified advertising is gonna print cash.
can anyone who thinks the LLM industry is a financial bubble provide a concrete prediction within the next year?
like that users or total revenue across every company will notably decrease
i am looking for this to be, uh, falsifiable
like that users or total revenue across every company will notably decrease
i am looking for this to be, uh, falsifiable
December 28, 2025 at 11:10 PM
I’m in the weird area where I don’t think it’s a bubble for gettier reasons. Investors have been sold AGI which I highly doubt they’ll get. On the other hand AI slopified advertising is gonna print cash.
Aside from market makers and arbitrage traders, which are basically impossible to get into anyway, is there reason to believe hedge funds actually provide what they claim to offer? Given their fees idk if I’d believe them tbh.
December 28, 2025 at 12:16 AM
Aside from market makers and arbitrage traders, which are basically impossible to get into anyway, is there reason to believe hedge funds actually provide what they claim to offer? Given their fees idk if I’d believe them tbh.
I wanna play
December 28, 2025 at 12:09 AM
I wanna play
The better monetary policy gets the less that people pursuing careers which give you “bond-like” human capital makes sense, given the decreasing marginal utility of consumption.
December 27, 2025 at 6:16 PM
The better monetary policy gets the less that people pursuing careers which give you “bond-like” human capital makes sense, given the decreasing marginal utility of consumption.
Unpopular opinion but Mr Beast seems fine
December 22, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Unpopular opinion but Mr Beast seems fine
Probably a cold take but AI companies are simultaneously overvalued (AGI ain’t happening anytime soon) and undervalued (AI-slopified advertising is way underestimated). If this is true I’d say Meta and Google are the way to go, even as highly priced as they are. Thoughts?
December 17, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Probably a cold take but AI companies are simultaneously overvalued (AGI ain’t happening anytime soon) and undervalued (AI-slopified advertising is way underestimated). If this is true I’d say Meta and Google are the way to go, even as highly priced as they are. Thoughts?
A contrarian opinion I hold is that people from the past genuinely were significantly dumber than people today. There’s a ton of intellectual infrastructure we take for granted that has been built up that allows us to very easily solve problems their greatest minds struggled with.
December 11, 2025 at 3:19 AM
A contrarian opinion I hold is that people from the past genuinely were significantly dumber than people today. There’s a ton of intellectual infrastructure we take for granted that has been built up that allows us to very easily solve problems their greatest minds struggled with.
On the spectrum between Great Recession and Great Depression, I wonder how severe an actual medium to long term debt ceiling default would be. Seems obviously worse than 2008, but idk if it reaches the 25% unemployment Depression heights.
December 11, 2025 at 2:37 AM
On the spectrum between Great Recession and Great Depression, I wonder how severe an actual medium to long term debt ceiling default would be. Seems obviously worse than 2008, but idk if it reaches the 25% unemployment Depression heights.
Tbh thinking about it more it’s actually a super restrictive assumption, it basically excludes mortgages or real estate (ik these are redundant, but think about retail investors!) as an investment vehicle!
Does anyone know how optimal portfolio theory changes when you break the infinite indivisability assumption ((x,y) ∈ R)? Like, it makes analysis a lot more tractable but it restricts you to stocks, bonds and their financial derivatives.
December 5, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Tbh thinking about it more it’s actually a super restrictive assumption, it basically excludes mortgages or real estate (ik these are redundant, but think about retail investors!) as an investment vehicle!
Even if this were true I’d still do it. It’s a good filter, I don’t want to date a lazy bum or a social conservative
Yes where else could men possibly receive this scorching insight
December 5, 2025 at 2:25 AM
Even if this were true I’d still do it. It’s a good filter, I don’t want to date a lazy bum or a social conservative
I flatly don’t believe that there are any studies regarding the deterrence effect of higher punishments for war crimes. Even if you could somehow get randomization they’d all be so underpowered as to be useless
I'm opposed to the death penalty in all cases, and also the evidence is pretty conclusive that it doesn't have much deterrent effect anyway.
But these dudes need to spend a LONG time in jail.
But these dudes need to spend a LONG time in jail.
December 5, 2025 at 2:10 AM
I flatly don’t believe that there are any studies regarding the deterrence effect of higher punishments for war crimes. Even if you could somehow get randomization they’d all be so underpowered as to be useless
So so tempted to just put $1,000 into Google
November 25, 2025 at 1:48 AM
So so tempted to just put $1,000 into Google
Thales of Miletus if he were alive today:
“I am quite fond of r/WallStreetBets”
“I am quite fond of r/WallStreetBets”
November 22, 2025 at 2:33 AM
Thales of Miletus if he were alive today:
“I am quite fond of r/WallStreetBets”
“I am quite fond of r/WallStreetBets”
Post three crank finance takes:
1- you should be long gold until 2028 at least
2- Brazilian bonds are undervalued
3- AI is overvalued, but google is undervalued
1- you should be long gold until 2028 at least
2- Brazilian bonds are undervalued
3- AI is overvalued, but google is undervalued
November 22, 2025 at 2:22 AM
Post three crank finance takes:
1- you should be long gold until 2028 at least
2- Brazilian bonds are undervalued
3- AI is overvalued, but google is undervalued
1- you should be long gold until 2028 at least
2- Brazilian bonds are undervalued
3- AI is overvalued, but google is undervalued
Claims like “Capital wants this” or similar need rigorous preference aggregation to make any sort of sense. Otherwise you’re making a mistake
You ever just sit down and realize that the rise of 21st century fascism is capital's answer to climate change?
November 21, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Claims like “Capital wants this” or similar need rigorous preference aggregation to make any sort of sense. Otherwise you’re making a mistake
Peeked at twitter for some sports stuff, and it’s pretty clear Matty’s cooked his brain. Probably thinks Cremieux is an evil genius or something.
November 18, 2025 at 1:08 AM
Peeked at twitter for some sports stuff, and it’s pretty clear Matty’s cooked his brain. Probably thinks Cremieux is an evil genius or something.
Literally me. I’m set to inherit millions of dollars worth of urban and agricultural land rents. Would still love Yimby georgism in Uruguay!
Though tbh in the case of Yimbyism specifically it’s in landowners financial interest short of some rare exceptions
Though tbh in the case of Yimbyism specifically it’s in landowners financial interest short of some rare exceptions
"yes i personally would accrue many rents from land but actually land rents SUCK as a social system and we should build housing instead"
--average participant at a yimby happy hour
--average participant at a yimby happy hour
November 16, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Literally me. I’m set to inherit millions of dollars worth of urban and agricultural land rents. Would still love Yimby georgism in Uruguay!
Though tbh in the case of Yimbyism specifically it’s in landowners financial interest short of some rare exceptions
Though tbh in the case of Yimbyism specifically it’s in landowners financial interest short of some rare exceptions
Literally the only legitimate crypto usecase I’ve ever found is for charitable donations when you want to make sure the payment reaches its intended receiver. So crime, but good crime in this case
If you need me, tap me on the shoulder. I’ll be happily working all day listening to this on a loop.
November 15, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Literally the only legitimate crypto usecase I’ve ever found is for charitable donations when you want to make sure the payment reaches its intended receiver. So crime, but good crime in this case
Moment Generating Functions seem totally useless to learn for undergrads. When are they ever going to use a higher order moment than Variance? Or a distribution for which its mean and variance are unknown?
November 11, 2025 at 2:33 AM
Moment Generating Functions seem totally useless to learn for undergrads. When are they ever going to use a higher order moment than Variance? Or a distribution for which its mean and variance are unknown?
Guy who thinks MMT guys would be an improvement for the developed world and UChicago guys for the developing
November 7, 2025 at 1:44 AM
Guy who thinks MMT guys would be an improvement for the developed world and UChicago guys for the developing