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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1h

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1323

1. political confusion continues to reign in🇫🇷. Former PM Borne suggests suspending her (and Macron's) signature pension reform. Other former PM Philippe urges his former boss Macron to resign. Yet another, Atall no longer understands Macron
2. 29 Shahed leakers out of 183 launches

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Reposted by François Heisbourg

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 23h

⚡️ Poland, Lithuania reject Merkel's claim they 'did not support' EU unity on Russia.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she sought to revive dialogue between the EU and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Poland, Lithuania reject Merkel's claim they 'did not support' EU unity on Russia

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she sought to revive dialogue between the EU and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

kyivindependent.com

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Reposted by François Heisbourg

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1h

A new Ukrainian strategy on the front is delivering surprising results. Ukraine may be winning the war of attrition, The Atlantic reports. Russia expected quick gains in northeastern Ukraine, but key cities and logistics hubs remain firmly under Ukrainian control.

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Pierre Haski @pierrehaski.bsky.social · 2h

Mettez-vous dans la tête de Poutine, Xi et Trump, et essayez d’imaginer ce qu’ils pensent de la crise politique française ! L’exercice est instructif et devrait faire réfléchir en France. Ma chronique Géopolitique du 7/11 @franceinter www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/...

La crise française vue par Poutine, Xi ou Trump : l’Europe affaiblie

Mettez-vous un instant dans la tête de Vladimir Poutine : quelle satisfaction de voir la France, co-leader, avec le Royaume Uni, de la « coalition des volontaires » formée en soutien à l’Ukraine, s’en...

www.radiofrance.fr

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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 13h

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Oct. 7 said those who built Nord Stream 2, not those accused of sabotaging it, "should be ashamed and remain silent," adding it is "not in Poland's interest" to hand over the suspect.

Ukraine war latest: 'Not in Poland's interest,' to hand over Ukrainian in Nord Stream probe, Tusk says

Key developments on Oct. 7: * 'Not in Poland's interest,' to hand over Ukrainian in Nord Stream 2 probe, Tusk says * Slovakia sends first nonlethal defense aid package to Ukraine since Fico took of...

kyivindependent.com

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1322

1. facilities hit in Nizhny-Novogorod and Dzherzhinsk areas

2. 64 Shahed leakers out of 152 plus 2 Iskander-M/KN-23

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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 1d

⚡️'I want to find out what they're doing with them' — Trump mulls sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Oct. 6 that he has "sort of made a decision" on whether to supply Ukraine with Tomahawk long-range missiles.

'I want to find out what they're doing with them' — Trump mulls sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Oct. 6 that he has "sort of made a decision" on whether to supply Ukraine with Tomahawk long-range missiles.

kyivindependent.com

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WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 1d

Russian media report that drones attacked Nizhny Novgorod and Dzerzhinsk in Russia. Locals heard at least 15 explosions during the night. It was also loud in Nizhny Novgorod. Temporary restrictions on the arrival and departure of aircraft were introduced at the airport.

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

What was unlikely yesterday is now moving to centre stage: first Macron PM Edouard Philippe calls on Macron to resign and organise early presidential elections

Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 1d

Le patron d'Horizons et ancien Premier ministre Édouard Philippe a demandé à Emmanuel Macron d'annoncer qu'"il organise une élection présidentielle anticipée", après l'adoption d'un budget pour 2026, pour "sortir d'une façon ordonnée et digne d'une crise politique qui nuit au pays".

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Le Figaro @lefigaro.fr · 1d

Sébastien Lecornu a «accepté» de «mener d’ultimes discussions». →https://l.lefigaro.fr/Yj5

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

Le Maire dropping out of the reckoning for the Min Arm position may provide Lecornu with some leverage for trying to cobble together a Cabinet by Wednesday PM. But It's an outside chance...

Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 1d

Bruno Le Maire, dont la nomination dimanche soir à la tête du ministère des Armées avait fait polémique, a annoncé sur X renoncer à participer au gouvernement démissionnaire du Premier ministre Sébastien Lecornu.

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WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 1d

For the second day in a row, missiles have been attacking the "Luch" substation in Belgorod. The city was partially plunged into darkness yesterday, and more significant consequences are expected today.

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

Macron asks Lecornu to give it another stab by Wednesday PM

Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 1d

Crise politique: Emmanuel Macron demande à Sébastien Lecornu de mener "d'ici mercredi soir d'ultimes négociations" sur une "plateforme d'action", annonce l'Elysée.

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

14 hours

Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.bsky.social · 2d

Bruno Le Maire becomes defence minister in the new French government. For how long, no one knows.

www.lemonde.fr/politique/ar...

Le gouvernement Lecornu, à peine nommé et déjà menacé d’implosion

La nouvelle équipe, qui compte douze membres du gouvernement Bayrou sur dix-huit et consacre le retour de deux figures du macronisme, Bruno Le Maire et Roland Lescure, divise le socle commun et accent...

www.lemonde.fr

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Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 1d

🇫🇷 Le Parti socialiste a appelé Emmanuel Macron à nommer un Premier ministre "issu de la gauche et des Ecologistes" après la démission choc de Sébastien Lecornu lundi matin, a déclaré le secrétaire général du PS Pierre Jouvet ⤵️

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1321

One of those days...

1. According to Reuters, Cuban army 🇨🇺 is now a cobelligerent of 🇷🇺 in 🇺🇦

2. Belgorod blacked out

3. Feodosya (Crimea) oil terminal (250 kt capacity) burns

4. 33 Shahed leakers out of 116

5. 🇫🇷: Lecornu forms government Sunday PM, resigns Monday AM

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

Reuters re Cuba: Another co-belligerent alongside Russia

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 2d

⚡️Up to 5,000 Cubans fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, Reuters reports.

An estimated 1,000 to 5,000 Cuban fighters are actively participating in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported Oct. 5, citing an internal U.S. State Department cable obtained by the outlet.

Up to 5,000 Cubans fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, Reuters reports

An estimated 1,000 to 5,000 Cuban fighters are actively participating in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported Oct. 5, citing an internal U.S. State Department cable obtained by the outlet.

kyivindependent.com

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

Bats in the belfry: swarming

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

If politics are going crazy in several European countries one after the other, I think it is time to go past blaming the failures of individual political actors (and there are quite a few, both in the UK and France) to looking at the systemic pressures our political systems are failing to deal with.

Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 1d

If you are overly focused on the admittedly increasingly batsh*t character of British politics, don‘t neglect the batsh*t character of French politics.

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

That was quick- indeed a speed record for the French Republic: Lecornu has resigned 13 hours after his government was formed. Next move is now Macron's. 3 options: a 6th PM of his term (maybe from the left; in all cases expect ultrabrief lifetime); snap elections (possible); prez resigns (unlikely)

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

Looks like Lecornu's government may be stillborn. And Macron may find it impossible to name a 6th prime minister in less than three years

FRANCE 24 @france24.com · 2d

Gouvernement de Sébastien Lecornu, en direct : à peine nommé, déjà fragilisé

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

Looks like Lecornu's government may be stillborn. And Macron may find it impossible to name a 6th prime minister in less than three years

FRANCE 24 @france24.com · 2d

Gouvernement de Sébastien Lecornu, en direct : à peine nommé, déjà fragilisé

Le Premier ministre français, Sébastien Lecornu, a dévoilé dimanche soir une première salve d'une quinzaine de ministres. Critiqué de toutes parts et fragilisé de l'intérieur par la fronde des Républicains de Bruno Retailleau, ce nouveau gouvernement paraît déjà proche de l'implosion. Suivez notre direct.

f24.my

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Reuters @reuters.com · 2d

Drone sighting temporarily disrupt flights at Norway's Oslo airport, NTB reports reut.rs/4oab38u

Drone sighting temporarily disrupt flights at Norway's Oslo airport, NTB reports

Norway's Oslo airport temporarily paused landings early on Monday after a report of a drone sighting near the airport, news agency NTB reported.

reut.rs

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

Blocking China

Unofficial BBCNews (World) Bot @bbcnews-world-rss.bsky.social · 2d

Australia signs key defence deal with Papua New Guinea

Up to 10,000 Papua New Guineas will be allowed to serve with the Australian military under the pact.

www.bbc.com

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FRANCE 24 @france24.com · 2d

🔴 URGENT - Retailleau, Darmanin reconduits, Le Maire aux Armées... les principaux membres du gouvernement Lecornu dévoilés

En direct : Sébastien Lecornu en passe de nommer son gouvernement

Après une journée de tractations intenses, Sébastien Lecornu s’apprête à dévoiler dimanche soir une première salve d'une quinzaine de ministres. Les Républicains, après hésitation, ont confirmé leur…

f24.my

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 2d

Holy smoke. This is something else: www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o.... If you read anything today, read this. Just ordered the book.

‘I’m leaving,’ Trump said. ‘There’s no reason to be here any more’: inside the meeting that brought Nato to the brink

Former secretary general Jens Stoltenberg recalls the rollercoaster ride of dealing with Donald Trump – and how close the US president brought the alliance to the point of collapse

www.theguardian.com

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 2d

Lithuanian border guards intercepted 11 balloons carrying contraband cigarettes from Belarus. The operation disrupted Vilnius airport for nearly 30 hours. Around 18,000 packs of cigarettes were seized during this unusual “tobacco air drop.”

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