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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 16h

This was my only point. You shouldn't let your frustration with economists' citation malpractice or disinclination to read -- which are very real! -- blind you to the fact that econ articles do require huge amounts of effort. bsky.app/profile/fili...

Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 16h

In other words, I'm doing the very opposite of belittling books or the work that goes into them. I'm making the point that top econ papers are like books *because they also require a huge amount of work*!

Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 16h

In other words, I'm doing the very opposite of belittling books or the work that goes into them. I'm making the point that top econ papers are like books *because they also require a huge amount of work*!

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 16h

In other words: this cannot be an equilibrium situation.

Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social · 16h

So, imagine a 2028 that ends with a normal election and a Democratic president.

Does that president punish CBS? Does he kick it out of the Brady room's front row? Does his FCC go after its licenses? Does his FTC probe the Skydance deal?

No, probably not. No fear of reprisal if power shifts back.

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 18h

Do CBS News executives understand that MAGA will not be in power forever? I genuinely think this is lost on a lot of people. They've gotten scammed by bad actors into believing Trump's 2024 win represented something seismic and even permanent. I predict they'll look back on this as a serious error.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 16h

My frustration is when people then look at economists and ask, "why do you publish so little?" No one asks that of book-writing disciplines, bc ppl understand each book takes tons of work. But so does each top econ paper!

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 16h

My point was 100% about effort! But many disciplines (especially in the hard sciences) also write papers, but with a completely different production function that allows people to publish tons of papers per year.

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Reposted by Filipe Campante

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1d

Danielle Allen fails the Lando test / lives out the Arrested Development meme: "A deal on the core principles in a compact could then become a framework for negotiating on legislation." Come ON. With this administration and this Congress?
therenovator.substack.com/p/why-im-exc...

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 16h

But I'm not saying that at all! I'm putting the two kinds of work on a par, quite explicitly: I didn't say econ papers entail *more* work than books. I might even say that you're the one suggesting that the work of economists (and other non-book disciplines) is less rigorous/meaningful... ;)

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 17h

Man, if you knew the amount of work that often goes into what ends up being a footnote with an appendix table... And I'm not saying that it's unique in economics. What I'm saying is that disciplines that write books vastly underestimate the amount of work that goes into a top econ article.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 17h

I think you're very wrong in the belittling of the work as "more econometrics in appendices"... But to be clear, it's not a good equilibrium in economics. Referees in top journals expect papers to cover every inch of ground, rule out every possible alternative mechanism, etc., that's not good.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 17h

In other words: economists *do* write books, but publish them in the shape of lengthy articles with enormous appendices.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 17h

It's hugely inefficient to have statutes that have to spell everything out in minute detail, but that's the kind of inefficiency that comes from being in a low-trust environment.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 17h

It is a huge problem that the US is now a low-trust country with laws and statutes written in the context of a high-trust country. From now on they will need to be rewritten keeping in mind that any loophole will be ruthlessly exploited, with zero forbearance.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 19h

Johnson: "It's true that in previous shutdowns, many or most furloughed employees have been paid for the time they were furloughed, but there is new legal analysis - I don't know the details, I just saw a headline - but there are some legal analysts saying that might not be appropriate or necessary"

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 17h

The way I try to explain it, to my non-economist colleagues, is that each economics paper at the top level is the equivalent of a book. It has a convenient paper-length summary, and lots of stuff shoved into appendices, but it's the same amount of work.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 2d

O pênalti não marcado contra o Palmeiras hj é um negócio chocante. Com VAR, é simplesmente inexplicável ignorar um pênalti assim.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 2d

Every single non-citizen has been at this point deprived of any free speech rights, for all practical purposes. And even those of us who are naturalized citizens feel more than a bit self-conscious and cautious exercising them.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 2d

It was right there for everyone with eyes to see…

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

Could always happen, but there’s no reason at all to expect it. Markets are not going to save democracy, or even prevent bad policy.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

And yet look the Turkish stock market over the last five years...

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

bsky.app/profile/fili...

Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

Lots of responses to this are like, “but look at the terrible policies that will be bad for growth!” Guys, markets can still go up in spite of that. Brexit is the most idiotic self-inflicted economic disaster by an advanced economy, and you would not be able to spot it in a plot of the FTSE 100.

Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

Very important. The “why hasn’t the market collapsed??” idea is yet another illustration of Americans’ complete lack of familiarity with real-world authoritarianism. Lots of companies can make lots of money under authoritarianism, no one should expect markets to tank in response to backsliding.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

Lots of responses to this are like, “but look at the terrible policies that will be bad for growth!” Guys, markets can still go up in spite of that. Brexit is the most idiotic self-inflicted economic disaster by an advanced economy, and you would not be able to spot it in a plot of the FTSE 100.

Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

Very important. The “why hasn’t the market collapsed??” idea is yet another illustration of Americans’ complete lack of familiarity with real-world authoritarianism. Lots of companies can make lots of money under authoritarianism, no one should expect markets to tank in response to backsliding.

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 3d

It's really not, bc private investors will tolerate vast amounts of authoritarianism/corruption (see: investment in 🇨🇳 etc. over the last 30 years) & bc baseline growth prospects in 🇪🇺/🇯🇵/etc. were far below 🇺🇸 in January 2025, & because there is nowhere else to go at scale:

bsky.app/profile/mcop...

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

It’s important to understand the difference, bc otherwise the absence of collapse ends up interpreted as evidence that things can’t be so bad — after all, just look at the markets! FTSE 100 has looked just fine in spite of Brexit, doesn’t mean it wasn’t a total disaster. curvo.eu/backtest/en/...

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

Well, there is evidence that personalistic regimes are bad for growth on average. But that is different from predicting collapse. It’s like Brexit: it has been terrible, but there’s been no collapse. You just perform worse than the counterfactual.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

Very important. The “why hasn’t the market collapsed??” idea is yet another illustration of Americans’ complete lack of familiarity with real-world authoritarianism. Lots of companies can make lots of money under authoritarianism, no one should expect markets to tank in response to backsliding.

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 3d

It's really not, bc private investors will tolerate vast amounts of authoritarianism/corruption (see: investment in 🇨🇳 etc. over the last 30 years) & bc baseline growth prospects in 🇪🇺/🇯🇵/etc. were far below 🇺🇸 in January 2025, & because there is nowhere else to go at scale:

bsky.app/profile/mcop...

Nicholas Weaver @ncweaver.skerry-tech.com · 22d

It is remarkable that the US stock market hasn't collapsed yet. Between the tariff shit, the racist immigration shit (bye bye joint ventures!), and the "hey, lets make fraud legal" movement, the long term prospects are super grim.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

E em tempo: o governo propôs isso por interesse político também, e isso, de novo, é a democracia funcionando.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 3d

E se alguém disser, “ah, mas fizeram isso não por bondade, mas por interesse”, a resposta é: exatamente!

Essa é a beleza da democracia: alinhar o interesse dos políticos com o dos cidadãos. Um sistema que depende da bondade dos políticos é um sistema ruim.

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