@flavourdave.bsky.social
Reposted
When I take train journeys, I sometimes write things. Things that I probably shouldn't publish
December 16, 2025 at 5:58 PM
When I take train journeys, I sometimes write things. Things that I probably shouldn't publish
Reposted
Is this cheese grater conscious? Many users feel they're talking to a real person. Scientists say it's time to consider whether they're onto something.
November 25, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Is this cheese grater conscious? Many users feel they're talking to a real person. Scientists say it's time to consider whether they're onto something.
Reposted
🧵 I spoke yesterday at @python.org's PyCon Ireland 2025 at UCD on Bayesian workflows + Structural Equation Models (SEMs) — exploring how we can infer latent preferences from noisy behavioural signals.
youtu.be/NS7SjHDSdmA?...
youtu.be/NS7SjHDSdmA?...
Nathaniel Forde - Bayesian Workflow - PyCon Ireland 2025
YouTube video by Nathaniel Forde
youtu.be
November 16, 2025 at 9:09 AM
🧵 I spoke yesterday at @python.org's PyCon Ireland 2025 at UCD on Bayesian workflows + Structural Equation Models (SEMs) — exploring how we can infer latent preferences from noisy behavioural signals.
youtu.be/NS7SjHDSdmA?...
youtu.be/NS7SjHDSdmA?...
Reposted
My talk focused on craft in statistical modelling with Bayesian workflows, using a case study on job satisfaction and what makes work feel compelling.
@pymc.io case study → www.pymc.io/projects/exa...
Slides → nathanielf.github.io/talks/pycon_...
@pymc.io case study → www.pymc.io/projects/exa...
Slides → nathanielf.github.io/talks/pycon_...
Bayesian Workflow with SEMs
This case study extends the themes of contemporary Bayesian workflow and Structural Equation Modelling. While both topics are well represented in the PyMC examples library, our goal here is to show...
www.pymc.io
November 16, 2025 at 9:09 AM
My talk focused on craft in statistical modelling with Bayesian workflows, using a case study on job satisfaction and what makes work feel compelling.
@pymc.io case study → www.pymc.io/projects/exa...
Slides → nathanielf.github.io/talks/pycon_...
@pymc.io case study → www.pymc.io/projects/exa...
Slides → nathanielf.github.io/talks/pycon_...
Reposted
So a recent Veritasium video on natural selection explains kin selection and does the unavoidable thing of saying that a parent shares "half of its genes with the child". This is wrong, because for any 2 humans, we share almost all of our genes. We share more than 95% with chimpanzees ffs. >>
November 4, 2025 at 3:44 PM
So a recent Veritasium video on natural selection explains kin selection and does the unavoidable thing of saying that a parent shares "half of its genes with the child". This is wrong, because for any 2 humans, we share almost all of our genes. We share more than 95% with chimpanzees ffs. >>
Reposted
Reducing access to abortions ...
- increases families' economic hardship,
- increases families' debt,
- increases income inequality,
- increases housing insecurity, and
- increases financially motivated crime rates.
- increases families' economic hardship,
- increases families' debt,
- increases income inequality,
- increases housing insecurity, and
- increases financially motivated crime rates.
September 15, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Reducing access to abortions ...
- increases families' economic hardship,
- increases families' debt,
- increases income inequality,
- increases housing insecurity, and
- increases financially motivated crime rates.
- increases families' economic hardship,
- increases families' debt,
- increases income inequality,
- increases housing insecurity, and
- increases financially motivated crime rates.
@nathanielforde.bsky.social great talk in Berlin! Thank you :)
September 11, 2025 at 7:34 AM
@nathanielforde.bsky.social great talk in Berlin! Thank you :)
Reposted
A careful study of every populist episode since 1900 finds catastrophic consequences, which play out slowly.
On average, incomes fall behind by nearly 15% over 15 years.
For the U.S., this is a cost of about $13k per person per year. Over a lifetime, that's million bucks.
On average, incomes fall behind by nearly 15% over 15 years.
For the U.S., this is a cost of about $13k per person per year. Over a lifetime, that's million bucks.
August 26, 2025 at 2:15 PM
A careful study of every populist episode since 1900 finds catastrophic consequences, which play out slowly.
On average, incomes fall behind by nearly 15% over 15 years.
For the U.S., this is a cost of about $13k per person per year. Over a lifetime, that's million bucks.
On average, incomes fall behind by nearly 15% over 15 years.
For the U.S., this is a cost of about $13k per person per year. Over a lifetime, that's million bucks.
Reposted
Das bemerkenswerte hier ist, dass die Verschiebung eben nicht 2015 passiert sondern 2017. Genau dann wenn Politik und Medien anfangen sich auf die aufsteigende AfD und ihre Themen einzuschießen. Wenn Migrationspolitik verschärft wird und Migranten dämonisiert werden. Es ist nicht Migration an sich.
Eine Mehrheit spricht sich dafür aus, die Zuwanderung nach Deutschland einzuschränken. Der Anteil derer, die dabei eine klar restriktive Haltung einnehmen, hat in den vergangenen zehn Jahren – also seit Angela Merkels Satz "Wir schaffen das "– deutlich zugenommen.
August 29, 2025 at 7:45 AM
Das bemerkenswerte hier ist, dass die Verschiebung eben nicht 2015 passiert sondern 2017. Genau dann wenn Politik und Medien anfangen sich auf die aufsteigende AfD und ihre Themen einzuschießen. Wenn Migrationspolitik verschärft wird und Migranten dämonisiert werden. Es ist nicht Migration an sich.
Reposted
Die US Executive Order "Restoring Gold Standard Science" stellt eine Bedrohung für die Wirtschaft/Sicherheit der USA dar. Die Anordnung ersetzt die wissenschaftliche Experten, die die wissenschaftlichen Organisationen der US-Regierung leiten, durch nicht-wissenschaftliche politische Beauftragte.
„Such censorship of scientists has been attempted by failed governments of the past such as Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and early communist China, always with disastrous consequences for their citizens.“
Watching MAGA-US sleepwalking into disaster.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Watching MAGA-US sleepwalking into disaster.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
The Executive Order “Restoring Gold Standard Science” is Dangerous for America
This EO is an unconstitutional attempt to censor and punish U.S. scientists for publishing science that doesn't fit a political agenda This misleading and false misrepresentation of U.S. scientif...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 24, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Die US Executive Order "Restoring Gold Standard Science" stellt eine Bedrohung für die Wirtschaft/Sicherheit der USA dar. Die Anordnung ersetzt die wissenschaftliche Experten, die die wissenschaftlichen Organisationen der US-Regierung leiten, durch nicht-wissenschaftliche politische Beauftragte.
Reposted
New Blog Post: VAEs vs Bayesian Multivariate models – modelling the complexity of job satisfaction.
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
It’s not one score. It’s a bundle: how we feel ❤️, how we work 💼, how we think 🧠.
Here’s what happened when we tried to compress that complexity… 🧵
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
It’s not one score. It’s a bundle: how we feel ❤️, how we work 💼, how we think 🧠.
Here’s what happened when we tried to compress that complexity… 🧵
August 10, 2025 at 5:05 PM
New Blog Post: VAEs vs Bayesian Multivariate models – modelling the complexity of job satisfaction.
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
It’s not one score. It’s a bundle: how we feel ❤️, how we work 💼, how we think 🧠.
Here’s what happened when we tried to compress that complexity… 🧵
nathanielf.github.io/posts/post-w...
It’s not one score. It’s a bundle: how we feel ❤️, how we work 💼, how we think 🧠.
Here’s what happened when we tried to compress that complexity… 🧵
Reposted
#rstats #statistics
I've released my new open source book, "Powered by Linear Algebra: the role of matrices and vector space in data science," at matloff.github.io/WackyLinearA....
Turns the classic LA course on its head! Still proves the theorems, but with a deep emphasis on applications.
I've released my new open source book, "Powered by Linear Algebra: the role of matrices and vector space in data science," at matloff.github.io/WackyLinearA....
Turns the classic LA course on its head! Still proves the theorems, but with a deep emphasis on applications.
matloff.github.io
August 15, 2025 at 4:53 PM
#rstats #statistics
I've released my new open source book, "Powered by Linear Algebra: the role of matrices and vector space in data science," at matloff.github.io/WackyLinearA....
Turns the classic LA course on its head! Still proves the theorems, but with a deep emphasis on applications.
I've released my new open source book, "Powered by Linear Algebra: the role of matrices and vector space in data science," at matloff.github.io/WackyLinearA....
Turns the classic LA course on its head! Still proves the theorems, but with a deep emphasis on applications.
Reposted
Not all cape-wearers are heroes.
Former Superman actor Dean Cain reveals he’s becoming an Ice agent to support Trump’s mass deportation agenda
Former Superman actor Dean Cain reveals he’s becoming an Ice agent to support Trump’s mass deportation agenda
The actor will be sworn in ‘ASAP’ amids the federal agency’s recruitment drive and unprecedented immigration raids that have sparked protest across the US
Former Superman actor Dean Cain has announced he has signed up to join Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice), in order to support US president Donald Trump’s anti-immigration agenda.
The federal law enforcement agency has aggressively ramped up immigration raids since Trump’s return to the White House and was recently awarded $75bn in extra funding as part of his “big beautiful bill”, which includes billions for hiring an additional 10,000 Ice agents by 2029. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
August 7, 2025 at 7:08 AM
Not all cape-wearers are heroes.
Reposted
Academia is basically a collection of people who got lucky early on and mistook it for genius. doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
August 4, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Academia is basically a collection of people who got lucky early on and mistook it for genius. doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
Reposted
Nothing says climate policy like skipping brunch and hoping the sky notices.
August 2, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Nothing says climate policy like skipping brunch and hoping the sky notices.
Reposted
The em dash has finally pushed back on all that generative AI slander.
"Let’s be honest: The real issue isn’t me—it’s you. You simply don’t read enough. If you did, you’d know I’ve been here for centuries."
www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/the...
"Let’s be honest: The real issue isn’t me—it’s you. You simply don’t read enough. If you did, you’d know I’ve been here for centuries."
www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/the...
The Em Dash Responds to the AI Allegations
“In recent months, a curious fixation has emerged in corners of academia: the em dash. More specifically, the apparent moral panic around how it is...
www.mcsweeneys.net
July 29, 2025 at 11:00 AM
The em dash has finally pushed back on all that generative AI slander.
"Let’s be honest: The real issue isn’t me—it’s you. You simply don’t read enough. If you did, you’d know I’ve been here for centuries."
www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/the...
"Let’s be honest: The real issue isn’t me—it’s you. You simply don’t read enough. If you did, you’d know I’ve been here for centuries."
www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/the...
Reposted
Die 2. Präsidentschaft Trumps könnte die Vereinigten Staaten noch tiefer in eine erratische, autoritär geprägte Politik treiben – Deutschland & Europa dürfen darauf nicht mit Abwarten reagieren, sondern müssen strategisch & entschlossen handeln. Neuer Kiel Report von @bachmannrudi.bsky.social 👇
July 23, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Die 2. Präsidentschaft Trumps könnte die Vereinigten Staaten noch tiefer in eine erratische, autoritär geprägte Politik treiben – Deutschland & Europa dürfen darauf nicht mit Abwarten reagieren, sondern müssen strategisch & entschlossen handeln. Neuer Kiel Report von @bachmannrudi.bsky.social 👇
Reposted
Mein Kiel Report "Quo vadis, USA?" ist da (Link im naechsten Tweet). Ich bin @kiel.institute und @schularick.bsky.social sehr dankbar, dass ich mal etwas ausfuehrlicher meine Gedanken zur aktuellen politischen, gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Situation in den USA aufschreiben konnte.
July 23, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Mein Kiel Report "Quo vadis, USA?" ist da (Link im naechsten Tweet). Ich bin @kiel.institute und @schularick.bsky.social sehr dankbar, dass ich mal etwas ausfuehrlicher meine Gedanken zur aktuellen politischen, gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Situation in den USA aufschreiben konnte.
Reposted
Erinnert Ihr Euch auch noch daran, als Robert Habeck von den Bauern gehindert wurde, sein Schiff zu verlassen? Erinnert Ihr Euch, wie damals alle riefen: "Das bringt nichts! So stärkt man die Grünen nur!"
Nee, damals musste man den betroffenen Bauern genauso dringend zuhören wie heute Alice Weidel.
Nee, damals musste man den betroffenen Bauern genauso dringend zuhören wie heute Alice Weidel.
July 21, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Erinnert Ihr Euch auch noch daran, als Robert Habeck von den Bauern gehindert wurde, sein Schiff zu verlassen? Erinnert Ihr Euch, wie damals alle riefen: "Das bringt nichts! So stärkt man die Grünen nur!"
Nee, damals musste man den betroffenen Bauern genauso dringend zuhören wie heute Alice Weidel.
Nee, damals musste man den betroffenen Bauern genauso dringend zuhören wie heute Alice Weidel.
Reposted
Scoop: The Wall Street Journal is working on a story highlighting Donald Trump’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein—but is said to be facing pressure from the White House, with Trump himself calling Editor-In-Chief Emma Tucker to object.
Details in @status.news: www.status.news/p/wall-stree...
Details in @status.news: www.status.news/p/wall-stree...
Trump's WSJ Epstein Fury
The Wall Street Journal is said to be working on a story highlighting Donald Trump’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, prompting protest from the White House.
www.status.news
July 17, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Scoop: The Wall Street Journal is working on a story highlighting Donald Trump’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein—but is said to be facing pressure from the White House, with Trump himself calling Editor-In-Chief Emma Tucker to object.
Details in @status.news: www.status.news/p/wall-stree...
Details in @status.news: www.status.news/p/wall-stree...
Reposted
Dismantling Mafia connections leads to more bank credit to legitimate businesses, raising local output and #productivity. Tighter #crime controls can strengthen the #banking system and wider economy.
B Buchetti, M Fabrizi, E Ipino, I Miquel Flores, A Parbonetti
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
B Buchetti, M Fabrizi, E Ipino, I Miquel Flores, A Parbonetti
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
July 17, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Dismantling Mafia connections leads to more bank credit to legitimate businesses, raising local output and #productivity. Tighter #crime controls can strengthen the #banking system and wider economy.
B Buchetti, M Fabrizi, E Ipino, I Miquel Flores, A Parbonetti
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
B Buchetti, M Fabrizi, E Ipino, I Miquel Flores, A Parbonetti
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Reposted
CDU-Wirtschaftsministerin Reiche stellt die Klimaziele & Klimaneutralität in Frage.
CDU-Verkehrsminister Schnieder will Fliegen billiger machen.
CDU-Landwirtschaftsminister baut Umwelt- & Klimastandards ab.
Und Kanzler Merz? Relativiert die historischen Klimaemissionen.
Bitter für den Planeten.
CDU-Verkehrsminister Schnieder will Fliegen billiger machen.
CDU-Landwirtschaftsminister baut Umwelt- & Klimastandards ab.
Und Kanzler Merz? Relativiert die historischen Klimaemissionen.
Bitter für den Planeten.
July 9, 2025 at 6:38 PM
CDU-Wirtschaftsministerin Reiche stellt die Klimaziele & Klimaneutralität in Frage.
CDU-Verkehrsminister Schnieder will Fliegen billiger machen.
CDU-Landwirtschaftsminister baut Umwelt- & Klimastandards ab.
Und Kanzler Merz? Relativiert die historischen Klimaemissionen.
Bitter für den Planeten.
CDU-Verkehrsminister Schnieder will Fliegen billiger machen.
CDU-Landwirtschaftsminister baut Umwelt- & Klimastandards ab.
Und Kanzler Merz? Relativiert die historischen Klimaemissionen.
Bitter für den Planeten.
Reposted
How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...
Which Kind of Science Reform
What hope is there for science reform, if we can't agree on what to reform? Right now, principles are more important than practices.
elevanth.org
July 9, 2025 at 1:40 PM
How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...