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fssau.futuresmart.com.au
Future Smart Strategies™
@fssau.futuresmart.com.au
62 followers 52 following 2 posts
Business Advisors: Built Environment, Energy, Health, Infrastructure, Innovation, Markets, Planning, Policy, Resources, Sustainability, Technology, Training, Transport
Managing Director @profraywills.bsky.social
http://www.futuresmart.com.au
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Future Smart Strategies™ @fssau.futuresmart.com.au · Nov 24
We at @fssau.bsky.social running projections since 2012
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right

Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Everything Electric energy & electric vehicle show
Melbourne 14-16 Nov 2025

I'll be there on a panel with Jack Scarlett:
Anything but cars: decarbonizing public transport - buses, trains, and ferries

au.everythingelectric.show
Anything but cars: decarbonizing public transport - buses, trains, and ferries https://au.everythingelectric.show
November 5, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Better to farm solar for energy
than to farm crops to use for biofuels

1ha solar array ~600kW
1000-1500 MWh/year (varies with location)

>100x more energy than

1ha planted crop for biofuels
- Soybean: ~8.3 MWh/yr

(updated graphic with revised numbers including corn and sugar cane)
1ha solar array ~600kW 1000-1500 MWh/year (varies with location) vs soybean, corn, and sugar cane
November 7, 2025 at 4:04 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
The environmental crisis isn't slowing down for 2PP politics
Weight of science and public opinion is on the side of urgent reform
Real “nature positive” reform needed, urgent, robust laws that match the scale of the biodiversity and climate crises, not carve-outs and loopholes and concessions
Toon @cathywilcox.bsky.social T-shirts for politicians
November 2, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
The Earth without "art" is just "eh"?
— Banksy
The Earth without "art" is just "eh"? — Banksy
November 2, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
It's not a drone strike
It's a tariff that Ukraine has insisted Russia pay
maks23.bsky.social MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 14d
🤯 Massive attack on Russia! DroneBomber
November 2, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
What do we do with (almost) free?
What do economists do with free?
What does the Reserve Bank do with free?

Electricity from #renewables anti-inflationary, and the principle to electrify everything
@rewiringaus.bsky.social

With @bobbyllew.bsky.social @fullycharged.bsky.social
youtu.be/uXFC-BvDZX4
December 1, 2024 at 2:50 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Shocker: Canavan's claim ignores the data

Wind, solar smashing grid market-share records
Fossil fuel generation falls to new low reneweconomy.com.au/wind-and-sol...

Burning more fossils only increases VW electricity price, while renewables bring lower electricity price linkedin.com/posts/raywil...
Canavan wants more coal-fired power stations - without looking at the data that says burning fossil fuels keeps electricity prices higher Gas generation >6% share yields prices mostly >$100 VWP Coal gen >55% share drives price and variability The latest slide data - as renewable energy penetration increases (as it does on a weekly basis - then new data adds Renewables gen >47% share associated with lowest VWP (VWP<$100) When renewables penetration >53%, generation cost is < $65
October 29, 2025 at 5:24 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Everything Electric energy & electric vehicle show
Melbourne 14-16 Nov 2025
au.everythingelectric.show/vic/
I'll be there on a panel with Jack Scarlett:
Anything but cars: decarbonizing public transport - buses, trains, and ferries
au.everythingelectric.show/vic/giga-the...
Who else is going?
Anything but cars: decarbonizing public transport - buses, trains, and ferries
au.everythingelectric.show
October 30, 2025 at 2:28 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Physics never stops 🧪
On a wet day, wheels on a wet surface with paint applied will lose traction
True for any vehicle, but most dangerous when riding a 2-wheeler bike, motorbike, etc - from loss of wheel traction, especially slippage from the front wheel in turns
#cycling
#roadsafety
#urbanism+
October 30, 2025 at 2:51 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Australian values aren't reflected in US under Trump

Australian values:
A fair go
Clear democratic principles
Equality of opportunity
Mutual respect
Tolerance

The rule of law

MAGA Gulf of Trump USA does not share values with Australia @albomp.bsky.social

bsky.app/profile/prof...
October 30, 2025 at 3:20 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
California hits new energy milestone - batteries dispatch more than 25% of California's evening power
Here: www.linkedin.com/posts/sam-zo... @samzouai.bsky.social
More here from @mzjacobson.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/mzja...
Some Western Australian experience in the thread below
October 23, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Australia fiddles with fossils while it swelters in record heat

Makes no sense

It is in Australians interests to act against global warming

Focusing on gas instead of renewables for the energy transition risks sabotaging our future

@billhare.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Australia fiddles with fossil gas while the country swelters in record heat. It doesn’t make sense | Bill Hare
Australians have an obvious interest in action against global warming. Focusing on gas instead of renewables for the energy transition risks sabotaging our future
www.theguardian.com
October 25, 2025 at 2:43 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Ancient people from Pacific Rim traveled a coastal route from East Asia during last ice age to be North America's First Peoples

Siberian land bridge model sets migration ~13kYA as last ice age waned

But archeological + DNA evidence of Pacific coastal route suggests ~20kYA
phys.org/news/2025-10...
October 25, 2025 at 3:14 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Australia overtakes United Kingdom to rank 3rd behind China and the United States in utility-scale battery capacity

Australia 14 GW/37 GWh of projects at / nearing financial close

(Current operating: 8,616 MW / 18,121 MWh)

pv-magazine.com/2025/10/21/a...

ping @mzjacobson.bsky.social
Australia dispatch from current operating: 8,616 MW / 18,121 MWh batteries
October 25, 2025 at 5:16 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
The Caravan to the future
And here's Matt's pitch to modernise Australia's communications
Pitching a new way to tomorrow - Matt Canavan
October 26, 2025 at 2:32 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Australian values versus political capture

Dave Pope 2024
Dave Pope 2024
October 26, 2025 at 4:45 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
2025 National Guard deployments in Chicago unprecedented in scale, driven by federal policy, not local law request

Neutral media outlets call it political theatre escalating tensions without clear evidence of claimed crime rates

Also, tear gas banned in warfare, but ok for citizens
iwillnotbesilenced.bsky.social Raider @iwillnotbesilenced.bsky.social · 20d
Communities are being gassed despite having a restraining order
Chicago
October 26, 2025 at 3:54 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Mosquitoes found in Iceland for first time as #climatechange warms the region

3 specimens discovered in what was previously one of few places in the world without these insects
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Iceland heating 4x average rate of Northern Hemisphere
#globalwarming
Mosquitoes found in Iceland for first time as climate crisis warms country
Three specimens discovered in what was previously one of the few places in the world without the insects
www.theguardian.com
October 22, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
If you had been on the train, you'd be home by now.
Just sayin'.

#publictransport
#urbansm+

(Kwinana Freeway in Perth, 21 Oct 2025)
www.perthnow.com.au/wa/traffic/p...
Perth now headline on freeway and major road crashes
October 22, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
China NEV market has entered structural maturity: robust internal demand while delivering growing exports
Monthly data shows, despite rapid growth, system in balance: domestic uptake, retail penetration ~58%, and export scaling achieved without oversupply stress
cnevpost.com/2025/10/14/c...
China's NEV sales reached 1,604,000 units, surpassing the previous record of 1,596,000 units set in December 2024 NEV exports continue robust growth, surging 100% year-on-year to 222,000 units in September BEV sales reached a record 1,058,000 units in September, surpassing one-million mark for the first time, a 36.4% Y-o-Y increase and a 16.5% rise from August PHEV sales sliding compared to BEVs 546,000 units in September, up 6.7% Y-o-Y and 12.1% from August
October 22, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
As weather becomes more extreme from climate change, Mississippi River has low levels for the fourth year in a row, impeding navigation and likely increase cost of shipping grain and fertiliser for farmers
At the same time, flood warnings are in place for next year
www.upi.com/Top_News/US/...
accuweather drought monitor accuweather flood forecast
October 21, 2025 at 12:41 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Death of baseload: World's biggest isolated grid is reaching 84 pct wind and solar almost daily
reneweconomy.com.au/death-of-bas... @gilesparkinson.bsky.social @reneweconomy.com.au

And batteries surging in Western Australia, too
Battery dispatch now greater than utility solar generation in WA
WA WEM daily generation renewables and battery dispatch WA WEM solar utility generation vs battery dispatch
October 21, 2025 at 7:31 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Labor seeking bipartisanship with LNP coalition increasingly imbibing reactionary populism under international influences (like Trump-led MAGAism) risks legitimising regressive narratives

Here's an idea
Establish a permanent joint standing committee between Labor, Greens, and teals

Tax fossil fuel
australiainstitute.org.au The Australia Institute @australiainstitute.org.au · Oct 16
"Opting to negotiate with the Coalition on the environment is opting to work with the very climate sceptics Australians just rejected."

From co-CEO Leanne Minshull in The New Daily
@leanneminshull.bsky.social #auspol
October 18, 2025 at 6:11 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Stupid humans
bsky.app/profile/prof...
ianhall.bsky.social Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 27d
24 years of satellite data reveal a dynamic, cyclic pattern of ice shelf damage across Antarctica.

Damage, linked to flow acceleration, strain, and thinning, shows strong sensitivity to climate warming, suggesting current models may underestimate future retreat.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Damage development on Antarctic ice shelves sensitive to climate warming - Nature Climate Change
Damages such as crevasses or cracks can be early indicators of ice shelf weakening. Here, the authors quantify changes in damage structures in Antarctic ice sheets, which show sensitivity to warming
www.nature.com
October 19, 2025 at 4:56 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
profraywills.futuresmart.com.au
Generation on Western Australia's Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) new renewables record

Peak renewables penetration 87.5% at 11.30PM 18Oct2025

Renewables range 18Oct2025
>80% penetration 10:30AM-2.30PM
>70% 9.00AM-3.30PM
Generation on Western Australia's Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) 7 days to 19 Oct 2025
October 19, 2025 at 5:24 AM