Georg Zachmann
@gzachmann.bsky.social
senior fellow - energy & climate policy -
@bruegel_org
Scientific Lead - GreenDealUkraїna -
@HZBde
@bruegel_org
Scientific Lead - GreenDealUkraїna -
@HZBde
Ukraine’s gas supply crisis last year wasn't just external - it was largely "home-made."
In her new GDU piece, Agata Loskot-Strachota argues that market dysfunction stalled storage volumes. Urgent reforms are the only way to sustainably secure future supply.
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
In her new GDU piece, Agata Loskot-Strachota argues that market dysfunction stalled storage volumes. Urgent reforms are the only way to sustainably secure future supply.
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
February 3, 2026 at 8:16 AM
Ukraine’s gas supply crisis last year wasn't just external - it was largely "home-made."
In her new GDU piece, Agata Loskot-Strachota argues that market dysfunction stalled storage volumes. Urgent reforms are the only way to sustainably secure future supply.
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
In her new GDU piece, Agata Loskot-Strachota argues that market dysfunction stalled storage volumes. Urgent reforms are the only way to sustainably secure future supply.
greendealukraina.org/products/ana...
Shmyhal : "Today at 10:42 a.m., a technical failure occurred, causing a simultaneous shutdown of the 400 kV line between RO and MD and the 750 kV line between the western and central parts of UA. This caused a cascade shutdown in Ukraine's power grid. Nuclear power plant units were unloaded".
January 31, 2026 at 9:08 PM
Shmyhal : "Today at 10:42 a.m., a technical failure occurred, causing a simultaneous shutdown of the 400 kV line between RO and MD and the 750 kV line between the western and central parts of UA. This caused a cascade shutdown in Ukraine's power grid. Nuclear power plant units were unloaded".
US LNG export capacity could double in just three years 📈, while EU demand is set to continue its downward trend 📉.
Doesn’t exactly sound like a seller’s market.
Doesn’t exactly sound like a seller’s market.
January 23, 2026 at 3:32 PM
US LNG export capacity could double in just three years 📈, while EU demand is set to continue its downward trend 📉.
Doesn’t exactly sound like a seller’s market.
Doesn’t exactly sound like a seller’s market.
My GDU colleague Rouven Stubbe had a first look into the actual impact of live-CBAM, using data from real-time electricity trading. And the distortions are pretty visible!
www.linkedin.com/posts/rouven...
www.linkedin.com/posts/rouven...
January 22, 2026 at 6:58 PM
My GDU colleague Rouven Stubbe had a first look into the actual impact of live-CBAM, using data from real-time electricity trading. And the distortions are pretty visible!
www.linkedin.com/posts/rouven...
www.linkedin.com/posts/rouven...
During the past weeks more LNG arrived in the EU than at the same time a year ago.
January 22, 2026 at 6:05 PM
During the past weeks more LNG arrived in the EU than at the same time a year ago.
I came across a useful Wikipedia page compiling various polling results for #Hungary’s April parliamentary elections, which strongly suggest that “he who pays the piper calls the tune.”
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
January 21, 2026 at 3:46 PM
I came across a useful Wikipedia page compiling various polling results for #Hungary’s April parliamentary elections, which strongly suggest that “he who pays the piper calls the tune.”
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
But it is surprising to me, that at this supply situation market prices are not already starting to do their job of reflecting a potential tightness and going up - encouraging more supply and reducing demand.
Expectation might be, that storage gets us through winter, and then v. cheap supplies come
Expectation might be, that storage gets us through winter, and then v. cheap supplies come
January 10, 2026 at 9:57 AM
But it is surprising to me, that at this supply situation market prices are not already starting to do their job of reflecting a potential tightness and going up - encouraging more supply and reducing demand.
Expectation might be, that storage gets us through winter, and then v. cheap supplies come
Expectation might be, that storage gets us through winter, and then v. cheap supplies come
In Germany, at current withdrawal rates (3.3 TWh/day) storage volume (124 TWh) would only last till mid-February.
If fast storage depletion continues more gas from other EU countries might be sent to Germany & EU prices will rise - attracting more LNG & lowering demand -> then withdrawal will slow.
If fast storage depletion continues more gas from other EU countries might be sent to Germany & EU prices will rise - attracting more LNG & lowering demand -> then withdrawal will slow.
January 10, 2026 at 9:57 AM
In Germany, at current withdrawal rates (3.3 TWh/day) storage volume (124 TWh) would only last till mid-February.
If fast storage depletion continues more gas from other EU countries might be sent to Germany & EU prices will rise - attracting more LNG & lowering demand -> then withdrawal will slow.
If fast storage depletion continues more gas from other EU countries might be sent to Germany & EU prices will rise - attracting more LNG & lowering demand -> then withdrawal will slow.
In the EU, at current withdrawal rates (10 TWh/day) storage volume (643 TWh) will last till mid March.
But if fast storage depletion continues - at some moment EU prices will rise - attracting more LNG-tankers and lowering demand -> then storage withdrawal will slow.
But if fast storage depletion continues - at some moment EU prices will rise - attracting more LNG-tankers and lowering demand -> then storage withdrawal will slow.
January 10, 2026 at 9:57 AM
In the EU, at current withdrawal rates (10 TWh/day) storage volume (643 TWh) will last till mid March.
But if fast storage depletion continues - at some moment EU prices will rise - attracting more LNG-tankers and lowering demand -> then storage withdrawal will slow.
But if fast storage depletion continues - at some moment EU prices will rise - attracting more LNG-tankers and lowering demand -> then storage withdrawal will slow.
A coordinated assault on critical heat, water, and electricity lifelines serving a city of several million people during freezing temperatures is a calculated cruelty.
Such a barbaric 'strategy' must not be allowed to succeed.
kyivindependent.com/4-injured-ru...
Such a barbaric 'strategy' must not be allowed to succeed.
kyivindependent.com/4-injured-ru...
January 9, 2026 at 11:43 AM
A coordinated assault on critical heat, water, and electricity lifelines serving a city of several million people during freezing temperatures is a calculated cruelty.
Such a barbaric 'strategy' must not be allowed to succeed.
kyivindependent.com/4-injured-ru...
Such a barbaric 'strategy' must not be allowed to succeed.
kyivindependent.com/4-injured-ru...
Thanks for this update. Quite impressive material-efficiency improvement.
With 650 GW of expected new PV installation next year - this would be around 6Mt of silver. At a global primary annual silver production of about 25 Mt, PV-related demand is now about a quarter of total production.
With 650 GW of expected new PV installation next year - this would be around 6Mt of silver. At a global primary annual silver production of about 25 Mt, PV-related demand is now about a quarter of total production.
January 8, 2026 at 10:20 AM
Thanks for this update. Quite impressive material-efficiency improvement.
With 650 GW of expected new PV installation next year - this would be around 6Mt of silver. At a global primary annual silver production of about 25 Mt, PV-related demand is now about a quarter of total production.
With 650 GW of expected new PV installation next year - this would be around 6Mt of silver. At a global primary annual silver production of about 25 Mt, PV-related demand is now about a quarter of total production.
There is about 20g of #silver in a 1 kW solar panel.
The price of 20 g silver has tripled from €14 to €40 in the last two years.
-> At a module cost of 100€/kW silver would be about 40% of the module cost.
Good news: most silver in new PV can be replaced by copper
www.pv-tech.org/wp-content/u...
The price of 20 g silver has tripled from €14 to €40 in the last two years.
-> At a module cost of 100€/kW silver would be about 40% of the module cost.
Good news: most silver in new PV can be replaced by copper
www.pv-tech.org/wp-content/u...
January 8, 2026 at 8:13 AM
There is about 20g of #silver in a 1 kW solar panel.
The price of 20 g silver has tripled from €14 to €40 in the last two years.
-> At a module cost of 100€/kW silver would be about 40% of the module cost.
Good news: most silver in new PV can be replaced by copper
www.pv-tech.org/wp-content/u...
The price of 20 g silver has tripled from €14 to €40 in the last two years.
-> At a module cost of 100€/kW silver would be about 40% of the module cost.
Good news: most silver in new PV can be replaced by copper
www.pv-tech.org/wp-content/u...
And this trend is expected to continue in the coming year(s).
January 7, 2026 at 8:29 AM
And this trend is expected to continue in the coming year(s).
Instead of about 25 LNG vessels in late 2024, the US now sends out about 35 LNG vessels per week.
Accordingly, US LNG exports are now about 40% higher than one year ago.
Accordingly, US LNG exports are now about 40% higher than one year ago.
January 7, 2026 at 8:22 AM
Instead of about 25 LNG vessels in late 2024, the US now sends out about 35 LNG vessels per week.
Accordingly, US LNG exports are now about 40% higher than one year ago.
Accordingly, US LNG exports are now about 40% higher than one year ago.
Furthermore, Venezuela also holds 2% of global natural gas reserves underground. But it currently seems to only produce natural gas for domestic consumption (and it flares a lot of associated gas). 5/5
January 5, 2026 at 1:48 PM
Furthermore, Venezuela also holds 2% of global natural gas reserves underground. But it currently seems to only produce natural gas for domestic consumption (and it flares a lot of associated gas). 5/5
And Venezuela primarily exports heavy-sour oil (dense & viscous; high in sulphur -> needing more complex refineries) - while it even has to import other oil grades and products. 4/5
January 5, 2026 at 1:48 PM
And Venezuela primarily exports heavy-sour oil (dense & viscous; high in sulphur -> needing more complex refineries) - while it even has to import other oil grades and products. 4/5
In 2023 the majority of the exports went to China (which also partly helped increasing production). 3/5
January 5, 2026 at 1:48 PM
In 2023 the majority of the exports went to China (which also partly helped increasing production). 3/5
The decline in oil production in the last decade was brutal - but there seemingly was some turnaround in 2020 - with some new rigs being set up after Covid. 2/5
January 5, 2026 at 1:48 PM
The decline in oil production in the last decade was brutal - but there seemingly was some turnaround in 2020 - with some new rigs being set up after Covid. 2/5
The US Energy Information Administration coincidentally plans to update its Country Briefing on the Venezuelan energy sector next month.
But already the current 2/2024 version is very insightful (really hope the high-quality, quite independent work can be kept up):
www.eia.gov/internationa...
1/5
But already the current 2/2024 version is very insightful (really hope the high-quality, quite independent work can be kept up):
www.eia.gov/internationa...
1/5
January 5, 2026 at 1:48 PM
The US Energy Information Administration coincidentally plans to update its Country Briefing on the Venezuelan energy sector next month.
But already the current 2/2024 version is very insightful (really hope the high-quality, quite independent work can be kept up):
www.eia.gov/internationa...
1/5
But already the current 2/2024 version is very insightful (really hope the high-quality, quite independent work can be kept up):
www.eia.gov/internationa...
1/5
Important power lines are typically configured as closed loops, so that a failure at one location still allows (almost) all substations to be supplied. The Berlin arson attack appears to have targeted a point where both lines run in parallel (the channel crossing).
openinframap.org#12.41/52.429...
openinframap.org#12.41/52.429...
January 4, 2026 at 6:52 PM
Important power lines are typically configured as closed loops, so that a failure at one location still allows (almost) all substations to be supplied. The Berlin arson attack appears to have targeted a point where both lines run in parallel (the channel crossing).
openinframap.org#12.41/52.429...
openinframap.org#12.41/52.429...
We see already the third large-scale power outage in Berlin in three years due to an arson attack: 2024 (Tesla), 2025 (Adlershof), 2026 (Zehlendorf).
Now, 35k households without electricity and often heating for several days, during freezing temperatures.
www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/strom...
Now, 35k households without electricity and often heating for several days, during freezing temperatures.
www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/strom...
January 4, 2026 at 9:27 AM
We see already the third large-scale power outage in Berlin in three years due to an arson attack: 2024 (Tesla), 2025 (Adlershof), 2026 (Zehlendorf).
Now, 35k households without electricity and often heating for several days, during freezing temperatures.
www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/strom...
Now, 35k households without electricity and often heating for several days, during freezing temperatures.
www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/strom...
For the first time since 2019, EU gas imports in 2025 structurally increased compared to the previous year - and this increase is essentially covered by US LNG.
December 23, 2025 at 11:30 AM
For the first time since 2019, EU gas imports in 2025 structurally increased compared to the previous year - and this increase is essentially covered by US LNG.
5) We us a "capacity revenue" index (€/kW) that combines the capacity factor (MWh/kW) with the market value (€/MWh) for a specific year in a specific country.
One nicely sees how thanks to build-out the capacity revenues on the Iberian peninsula went down.
One nicely sees how thanks to build-out the capacity revenues on the Iberian peninsula went down.
December 9, 2025 at 9:59 AM
5) We us a "capacity revenue" index (€/kW) that combines the capacity factor (MWh/kW) with the market value (€/MWh) for a specific year in a specific country.
One nicely sees how thanks to build-out the capacity revenues on the Iberian peninsula went down.
One nicely sees how thanks to build-out the capacity revenues on the Iberian peninsula went down.