Harsha Sridhar
@harshasridhar12.bsky.social
Sole proprietor of Braves stuff at armchairalex.substack.com
Normalize using K% instead of K/9
Normalize using K% instead of K/9
Pinned
ArmchairAlex | Substack
Figuring out why the Braves are doing things, then trying to explain it. Click to read ArmchairAlex, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.
armchairalex.substack.com
Hello to my three followers and anyone else who comes across this!
An intro: I’m a huge Braves fan and have been writing about the team at armchairalex.substack.com for the last year. Moving to Bluesky gives me an opportunity to start being shamelessly self-promotional about my work! (1/2)
An intro: I’m a huge Braves fan and have been writing about the team at armchairalex.substack.com for the last year. Moving to Bluesky gives me an opportunity to start being shamelessly self-promotional about my work! (1/2)
I know prospect challenge trades are rare but I wonder if the Braves and Orioles might match up well on a Kjerstad for AJSS framework. Baltimore is crowded in the corner OF and has a weaker pitching crop; Atlanta has no near-term prospect answers in the OF but lots of arms.
December 17, 2024 at 4:45 PM
I know prospect challenge trades are rare but I wonder if the Braves and Orioles might match up well on a Kjerstad for AJSS framework. Baltimore is crowded in the corner OF and has a weaker pitching crop; Atlanta has no near-term prospect answers in the OF but lots of arms.
I’m not sure there’s a single player available this offseason where my opinion differs from most fans’ more than it does with Nick Pivetta. Led all SPs in Stuff+, has had 1 throwing-arm injury in his major league career, and did this last year. He’s got a QO attached, but bring him to me anyway.
December 16, 2024 at 4:21 PM
I’m not sure there’s a single player available this offseason where my opinion differs from most fans’ more than it does with Nick Pivetta. Led all SPs in Stuff+, has had 1 throwing-arm injury in his major league career, and did this last year. He’s got a QO attached, but bring him to me anyway.
BDLC was extremely interesting in 2022 when he posted a 90th percentile xwOBA. Peripherals have declined since then and he’s a very bad defender, but he has minors options and is well worth an audition in spring training. Still think the Braves add an outfielder on a major league deal.
OF Bryan De La Cruz to the Atlanta Braves on a one-year, non-guaranteed deal.
December 15, 2024 at 5:19 PM
BDLC was extremely interesting in 2022 when he posted a 90th percentile xwOBA. Peripherals have declined since then and he’s a very bad defender, but he has minors options and is well worth an audition in spring training. Still think the Braves add an outfielder on a major league deal.
Tucker would be a great fit for anyone, but particularly for the Braves:
- need corner OF
- prefer LHB (per Rosenthal)
- Tucker’s older brother played for the Braves in 2018 (majors) and 2022 (minors)
- Tucker is from Tampa; no big-market team is closer to home if he cares about that re: extensions
- need corner OF
- prefer LHB (per Rosenthal)
- Tucker’s older brother played for the Braves in 2018 (majors) and 2022 (minors)
- Tucker is from Tampa; no big-market team is closer to home if he cares about that re: extensions
December 10, 2024 at 12:32 AM
Tucker would be a great fit for anyone, but particularly for the Braves:
- need corner OF
- prefer LHB (per Rosenthal)
- Tucker’s older brother played for the Braves in 2018 (majors) and 2022 (minors)
- Tucker is from Tampa; no big-market team is closer to home if he cares about that re: extensions
- need corner OF
- prefer LHB (per Rosenthal)
- Tucker’s older brother played for the Braves in 2018 (majors) and 2022 (minors)
- Tucker is from Tampa; no big-market team is closer to home if he cares about that re: extensions
Here, I make some guesses about what the offseason holds for the Braves. Some names I’ll keep an eye on: Willy Adames, Nathan Eovaldi, Clay Holmes, Michael Conforto, and Max Kepler.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/some-unsou...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/some-unsou...
Some unsourced Braves speculation entering Winter Meetings
Read this article and then marvel at how quickly I'm proven completely wrong.
armchairalex.substack.com
December 6, 2024 at 2:48 PM
Here, I make some guesses about what the offseason holds for the Braves. Some names I’ll keep an eye on: Willy Adames, Nathan Eovaldi, Clay Holmes, Michael Conforto, and Max Kepler.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/some-unsou...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/some-unsou...
Good for Seitzer. At least looking at Z-swing and O-swing, the Braves’ swing decisions were perfectly good in 2024. And if it was a matter of a message growing stale, he’s got a brand new crop of players to whom he can impart his knowledge!
Per Daniel Kramer, the Mariners are hiring the Braves’ Kevin Seitzer as their hitting coach, assisted by Bobby Magallanes, who was also with Atlanta. Longtime Mariners coach Carson Vitale is departing to take a role with Miami. Blurb to come.
November 26, 2024 at 5:28 AM
Good for Seitzer. At least looking at Z-swing and O-swing, the Braves’ swing decisions were perfectly good in 2024. And if it was a matter of a message growing stale, he’s got a brand new crop of players to whom he can impart his knowledge!
The interesting Braves tidbit here is that the Braves would prefer a LH bat. Makes Max Kepler particularly interesting on a one-year bounce-back deal IMO.
Latest notes:
*What to make of Braves’ cost-cutting moves
*Inside the Patrick Sandoval non-tender
*Nationals in search of next Jayson Werth
www.nytimes.com/athletic/594...
*What to make of Braves’ cost-cutting moves
*Inside the Patrick Sandoval non-tender
*Nationals in search of next Jayson Werth
www.nytimes.com/athletic/594...
What to make of the Braves’ recent cost-cutting moves and more MLB offseason notes
Inside the Angels' non-tender of pitcher Patrick Sandoval and a look at potential veteran hitters the Nationals could target.
www.nytimes.com
November 25, 2024 at 3:17 PM
The interesting Braves tidbit here is that the Braves would prefer a LH bat. Makes Max Kepler particularly interesting on a one-year bounce-back deal IMO.
I wrote this weekend about Austin Voth and Hoby Milner, both of whom would make fun additions to the Braves bullpen - and neither of whom should cost more than $2 million!
armchairalex.substack.com/p/amid-the-n...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/amid-the-n...
Amid the non-tender rubble, two relievers whom the Braves should call
Some useful pitchers were cut loose on Friday.
armchairalex.substack.com
November 25, 2024 at 2:53 PM
I wrote this weekend about Austin Voth and Hoby Milner, both of whom would make fun additions to the Braves bullpen - and neither of whom should cost more than $2 million!
armchairalex.substack.com/p/amid-the-n...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/amid-the-n...
Your Braves-type target for the day: Tyler O’Neill. Absolutely murders LHP, elite bat speed, excellent walk rate. Injuries and declining speed make availability and defense a question, but a real middle-of-the-order bat likely available at a reasonable price.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-playe...
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-playe...
Tyler O'Neill Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics
(2024) Avg Exit Velocity: 90.9, Hard Hit %: 48.8, wOBA: .360, xwOBA: .339, Barrel %: 17.3.
baseballsavant.mlb.com
November 20, 2024 at 1:34 AM
Your Braves-type target for the day: Tyler O’Neill. Absolutely murders LHP, elite bat speed, excellent walk rate. Injuries and declining speed make availability and defense a question, but a real middle-of-the-order bat likely available at a reasonable price.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-playe...
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-playe...
If you’re looking for a Joe Jiménez replacement for 2025, I think Clay Holmes makes a ton of sense for Atlanta. Coming off his ‘worst’ year in recent memory, but that was still good for a 3.29 xERA and a 100th percentile (!!) ground ball rate.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-playe...
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-playe...
Clay Holmes Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics
(2024) Avg Exit Velocity: 88.8, Hard Hit %: 36.5, wOBA: .292, xwOBA: .282, Barrel %: 5.6.
baseballsavant.mlb.com
November 18, 2024 at 3:39 PM
If you’re looking for a Joe Jiménez replacement for 2025, I think Clay Holmes makes a ton of sense for Atlanta. Coming off his ‘worst’ year in recent memory, but that was still good for a 3.29 xERA and a 100th percentile (!!) ground ball rate.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-playe...
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-playe...
He didn’t make my shortstop shortlist (below) because he’s played 2B the last two seasons, but with Jeff Passan reporting the Cubs are open to trading Nico Hoerner, I imagine the Braves are very interested. Truly elite defense and a fine offensive profile
armchairalex.substack.com/p/lets-figur...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/lets-figur...
Let's figure out the Braves' shortstop shortlist
For a player who performed poorly in 2024, Orlando Arcia will be weirdly difficult to replace.
armchairalex.substack.com
November 17, 2024 at 3:22 PM
He didn’t make my shortstop shortlist (below) because he’s played 2B the last two seasons, but with Jeff Passan reporting the Cubs are open to trading Nico Hoerner, I imagine the Braves are very interested. Truly elite defense and a fine offensive profile
armchairalex.substack.com/p/lets-figur...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/lets-figur...
Everyone seems to have talked about Morosi connecting the Braves to Buehler in this segment. Seems like it’s gone slightly under the radar that he also described the Braves as “involved with” Willy Adames. Not a surprise, but anything to warm the stove a bit.
www.mlb.com/video/j-p-mo...
www.mlb.com/video/j-p-mo...
J.P. Morosi with latest free agency stories | 11/15/2024
J.P. Morosi discusses good fits for Walker Buehler, the broad interest in Willy Adames and Juan Soto meeting with the Red Sox
www.mlb.com
November 16, 2024 at 8:25 PM
Everyone seems to have talked about Morosi connecting the Braves to Buehler in this segment. Seems like it’s gone slightly under the radar that he also described the Braves as “involved with” Willy Adames. Not a surprise, but anything to warm the stove a bit.
www.mlb.com/video/j-p-mo...
www.mlb.com/video/j-p-mo...
I’m one of those weird people who enjoys hot stove season as much as (maybe more than?) actual baseball season, so I’ll probably be pretty active as the Braves start acquiring players. I hope you’ll consider following along, both here and at my Substack, whose content I’ll definitely repost here.
November 16, 2024 at 5:04 PM
I’m one of those weird people who enjoys hot stove season as much as (maybe more than?) actual baseball season, so I’ll probably be pretty active as the Braves start acquiring players. I hope you’ll consider following along, both here and at my Substack, whose content I’ll definitely repost here.
Finally, I considered the Braves’ acquisition tendencies to make what I think is a realistic shortlist of players the Braves might sign or trade for to fill their LF and SP holes.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/predicting...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/predicting...
Predicting the Braves' unpredictable acquisitions
Let's take some educated guesses at players the Braves might value more than fans realize.
armchairalex.substack.com
November 16, 2024 at 5:01 PM
Finally, I considered the Braves’ acquisition tendencies to make what I think is a realistic shortlist of players the Braves might sign or trade for to fill their LF and SP holes.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/predicting...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/predicting...
Moving to the offseason, I compared the swing decisions Tim Hyers’s Rangers and Kevin Seitzer’s Braves made last year. (Spoiler: they were both actually pretty good.)
armchairalex.substack.com/p/tim-hyers-...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/tim-hyers-...
Tim Hyers, swing decisions, and misunderstandings
Hyers brings a new voice to the Braves' coaching staff, but maybe not a new idea.
armchairalex.substack.com
November 16, 2024 at 4:59 PM
Moving to the offseason, I compared the swing decisions Tim Hyers’s Rangers and Kevin Seitzer’s Braves made last year. (Spoiler: they were both actually pretty good.)
armchairalex.substack.com/p/tim-hyers-...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/tim-hyers-...
Of more general interest, I broke down walk rates and win probability data to uncover an interesting phenomenon: pitchers don’t avoid walks any better even in game states wherein walks and home runs are approximately equally harmful.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/i-think-re...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/i-think-re...
Ninth-inning relievers aren’t throwing enough strikes
Ninth-inning walks with a multi-run lead aren't just frustrating; they're worse than you might think.
armchairalex.substack.com
November 16, 2024 at 4:58 PM
Of more general interest, I broke down walk rates and win probability data to uncover an interesting phenomenon: pitchers don’t avoid walks any better even in game states wherein walks and home runs are approximately equally harmful.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/i-think-re...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/i-think-re...
On the managerial decisions side, I wrote an article about the Braves’ recurring tendency to let at least one starter every year face the third time through the order too often and suggested an alternative approach.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/with-brave...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/with-brave...
With Atlanta's back-end starters, the data says less is more
Given the Braves' deep bullpen, the eighteen-batter limit might be ideal for the their young starting pitchers.
armchairalex.substack.com
November 16, 2024 at 4:56 PM
On the managerial decisions side, I wrote an article about the Braves’ recurring tendency to let at least one starter every year face the third time through the order too often and suggested an alternative approach.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/with-brave...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/with-brave...
I looked into the two interesting relievers the Braves stashed last offseason. Murfee is no longer with the organization, but Perdomo is. This article explains why I’m pretty excited to see what he’s got.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/why-penn-m...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/why-penn-m...
Why Penn Murfee and Angel Perdomo are worth the wait
Atlanta spends two 40-man spots on some (potential) delayed gratification.
armchairalex.substack.com
November 16, 2024 at 4:54 PM
I looked into the two interesting relievers the Braves stashed last offseason. Murfee is no longer with the organization, but Perdomo is. This article explains why I’m pretty excited to see what he’s got.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/why-penn-m...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/why-penn-m...
I’ll start with this article I wrote almost a year ago, in which I argued that Chris Sale was maybe the best arm available in the 2023 offseason on a rate basis. Good (or lucky) call, though he pitched even better than I could’ve hoped.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/chris-sale...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/chris-sale...
Chris Sale: fragile but still magical
The Braves might have obtained the best rate-basis arm available this offseason.
armchairalex.substack.com
November 16, 2024 at 4:51 PM
I’ll start with this article I wrote almost a year ago, in which I argued that Chris Sale was maybe the best arm available in the 2023 offseason on a rate basis. Good (or lucky) call, though he pitched even better than I could’ve hoped.
armchairalex.substack.com/p/chris-sale...
armchairalex.substack.com/p/chris-sale...
Hello to my three followers and anyone else who comes across this!
An intro: I’m a huge Braves fan and have been writing about the team at armchairalex.substack.com for the last year. Moving to Bluesky gives me an opportunity to start being shamelessly self-promotional about my work! (1/2)
An intro: I’m a huge Braves fan and have been writing about the team at armchairalex.substack.com for the last year. Moving to Bluesky gives me an opportunity to start being shamelessly self-promotional about my work! (1/2)
ArmchairAlex | Substack
Figuring out why the Braves are doing things, then trying to explain it. Click to read ArmchairAlex, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.
armchairalex.substack.com
November 16, 2024 at 4:46 PM
Hello to my three followers and anyone else who comes across this!
An intro: I’m a huge Braves fan and have been writing about the team at armchairalex.substack.com for the last year. Moving to Bluesky gives me an opportunity to start being shamelessly self-promotional about my work! (1/2)
An intro: I’m a huge Braves fan and have been writing about the team at armchairalex.substack.com for the last year. Moving to Bluesky gives me an opportunity to start being shamelessly self-promotional about my work! (1/2)