Ivaylo Iaydjiev
@iaydjiev.bsky.social
Previoualy researcher @UniofOxford, 🇪🇺 policy @EU_Commission, deputy minister of finance 🇧🇬. Owns my views.
Pinned
Ivaylo Iaydjiev
@iaydjiev.bsky.social
· Jul 7
Today #EU finance ministers will officially welcome Bulgaria as the 21st member of the euro area 💶 from 1/1/2026.
This has been a long journey since 2007, with key progress in the past 5 years.
How did Bulgaria make it? Here are three key points about 🇧🇬 economy and society and some myth busting.
This has been a long journey since 2007, with key progress in the past 5 years.
How did Bulgaria make it? Here are three key points about 🇧🇬 economy and society and some myth busting.
Some (macro)economic thoughts as euro area welcomes a new member at midnight. Bulgaria shows that you can cover convergence criteria and also make people better off, despite challenges. The only way European integration can proceed in a sustainable manner is when it actually delivers for Europeans.
How to join the euro without austerity: The macroeconomics of Bulgaria's euro accession
A story about a small open economy, seven national elections in five years, a supply-side energy shock, and achieving all the euro convergence criteria.
open.substack.com
December 31, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Some (macro)economic thoughts as euro area welcomes a new member at midnight. Bulgaria shows that you can cover convergence criteria and also make people better off, despite challenges. The only way European integration can proceed in a sustainable manner is when it actually delivers for Europeans.
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
If it’s December 31st, that means it’s time for the Albies! danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-best-w...
The Best Work on Political Economy in 2025
Presenting the 17th annual Albies!
danieldrezner.substack.com
December 31, 2025 at 12:30 PM
If it’s December 31st, that means it’s time for the Albies! danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-best-w...
Eurobonds, as part of a diversified funding strategy, are here to stay - it is not "just" #NextGenerationEU
EU borrowing continues to drive the EU’s political priorities!
We will issue up to €90bn in EU-Bonds in the first half of 2026.
This will ensure Europe can:
🌱 Support NextGenerationEU objectives
🇺🇦 Stand with Ukraine
🛡️ Invest in defence
🔗 More: link.europa.eu/KGfPQ4
We will issue up to €90bn in EU-Bonds in the first half of 2026.
This will ensure Europe can:
🌱 Support NextGenerationEU objectives
🇺🇦 Stand with Ukraine
🛡️ Invest in defence
🔗 More: link.europa.eu/KGfPQ4
December 22, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Eurobonds, as part of a diversified funding strategy, are here to stay - it is not "just" #NextGenerationEU
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding.
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
The Ukraine Reparations Loan: How to fix Europe's financial plumbing
As US support for Ukraine vanishes, Europe must overcome Belgian opposition and improvise fiscally to provide Kyiv with €210 billion.
www.cer.eu
December 18, 2025 at 1:19 PM
D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding.
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece.
This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
A great primer by @olena-havrylchyk.bsky.social on securities depositories including Euroclear, recommended reading for whoever want to understand the issues underlying the Immobilized Russian Reserves saga www.ifri.org/en/studies/c...
Central Securities Depositories and Geopolitical Risks: Challenges for European Policy
Central Securities Depositories (CSDs) form the backbone of financial market infrastructure by registering securities, settling trades, distributing cash flows, and managing collateral. While often regarded as mere financial “plumbing,” they in fact underpin strategic objectives such as advancing the Savings and Investment Union, curbing tax evasion, and reinforcing Europe’s geopolitical stance.
www.ifri.org
December 13, 2025 at 4:56 PM
A great primer by @olena-havrylchyk.bsky.social on securities depositories including Euroclear, recommended reading for whoever want to understand the issues underlying the Immobilized Russian Reserves saga www.ifri.org/en/studies/c...
"The EU has the money and mechanisms to make the reparations loan happen". Indeed.
Excellent oped identifying the limits of risks & how layered guarantees via EIB & ESM can help.
Financials are clear. Politics need to urgently follow.
@blavatnikschool.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/7e70...
Excellent oped identifying the limits of risks & how layered guarantees via EIB & ESM can help.
Financials are clear. Politics need to urgently follow.
@blavatnikschool.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/7e70...
How to guarantee Ukraine’s ‘reparations loan’
An everything-all-at-once solution
www.ft.com
December 13, 2025 at 12:43 PM
"The EU has the money and mechanisms to make the reparations loan happen". Indeed.
Excellent oped identifying the limits of risks & how layered guarantees via EIB & ESM can help.
Financials are clear. Politics need to urgently follow.
@blavatnikschool.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/7e70...
Excellent oped identifying the limits of risks & how layered guarantees via EIB & ESM can help.
Financials are clear. Politics need to urgently follow.
@blavatnikschool.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/7e70...
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
China's trade surplus appears on track to top US$1trn this year
• China’s exports to the US have were down by 29% year on year in November amid tariffs and tensions
• However, Chinese shipments to other regions - notably south-east Asia - keep growing rapidly
www.ft.com/content/b9bf...
• China’s exports to the US have were down by 29% year on year in November amid tariffs and tensions
• However, Chinese shipments to other regions - notably south-east Asia - keep growing rapidly
www.ft.com/content/b9bf...
December 9, 2025 at 4:02 PM
China's trade surplus appears on track to top US$1trn this year
• China’s exports to the US have were down by 29% year on year in November amid tariffs and tensions
• However, Chinese shipments to other regions - notably south-east Asia - keep growing rapidly
www.ft.com/content/b9bf...
• China’s exports to the US have were down by 29% year on year in November amid tariffs and tensions
• However, Chinese shipments to other regions - notably south-east Asia - keep growing rapidly
www.ft.com/content/b9bf...
You know, maybe once in a while you can actually see a bubble in real time. #ThisTimeIsDifferent
November 18, 2025 at 8:43 AM
You know, maybe once in a while you can actually see a bubble in real time. #ThisTimeIsDifferent
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
October 23, 2025 at 8:04 AM
The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Breaking news: The 2025 Nobel Prize for Economics has been awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt for their work explaining how innovation can drive economic growth. on.ft.com/3WEvVZq
October 13, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Breaking news: The 2025 Nobel Prize for Economics has been awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt for their work explaining how innovation can drive economic growth. on.ft.com/3WEvVZq
"Given that national governments form the backbone of the eu, “blaming Brussels” is akin to a ventriloquist haranguing his own puppet for being foul-mouthed"
“Brussels” is the phantom menace Europe loves to blame
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
“Brussels” is the phantom menace Europe loves to blame
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
“Brussels” is the phantom menace Europe loves to blame
Why bashing the EU is likely to become ever more popular
www.economist.com
October 11, 2025 at 8:01 AM
"Given that national governments form the backbone of the eu, “blaming Brussels” is akin to a ventriloquist haranguing his own puppet for being foul-mouthed"
“Brussels” is the phantom menace Europe loves to blame
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
“Brussels” is the phantom menace Europe loves to blame
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
It's not just the stock market as well. On the economy at least, it is a two-speed Europe, just not in the way that it's advocates expected.
The drivers have switched.
Europe’s great stockmarket inversion
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
From The Economist
The drivers have switched.
Europe’s great stockmarket inversion
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
From The Economist
Europe’s great stockmarket inversion
The hottest places to invest are on the continent’s periphery
www.economist.com
September 21, 2025 at 7:16 AM
It's not just the stock market as well. On the economy at least, it is a two-speed Europe, just not in the way that it's advocates expected.
The drivers have switched.
Europe’s great stockmarket inversion
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
From The Economist
The drivers have switched.
Europe’s great stockmarket inversion
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
From The Economist
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Bubbles are normal when new technologies emerge. We analysed historical crashes to see how severe the consequences could be, and for whom
What if the AI stockmarket blows up?
We find that the potential cost has risen alarmingly high
econ.st
September 7, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Bubbles are normal when new technologies emerge. We analysed historical crashes to see how severe the consequences could be, and for whom
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
The bond doom-mongers have got at least one thing right on.ft.com/3V0smwb | opinion
The bond doom-mongers have got at least one thing right
Pressure on government borrowing costs is building
on.ft.com
September 6, 2025 at 6:06 AM
The bond doom-mongers have got at least one thing right on.ft.com/3V0smwb | opinion
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Some people go to Paris to visit the Louvre, the Eiffel Tower or Jim Morrison’s grave. I’m visiting the birthplace of the eurodollar market. 🤩
September 3, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Some people go to Paris to visit the Louvre, the Eiffel Tower or Jim Morrison’s grave. I’m visiting the birthplace of the eurodollar market. 🤩
One of the blindspots of the Draghi report was the lack of acknowledgement that it is CEE which is the EU growth engine since COVID.
Competitiveness and growth challenges in EU as a whole are different that the ones in DE or FR.
Competitiveness and growth challenges in EU as a whole are different that the ones in DE or FR.
August 12, 2025 at 5:38 AM
One of the blindspots of the Draghi report was the lack of acknowledgement that it is CEE which is the EU growth engine since COVID.
Competitiveness and growth challenges in EU as a whole are different that the ones in DE or FR.
Competitiveness and growth challenges in EU as a whole are different that the ones in DE or FR.
July 8, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Today #EU finance ministers will officially welcome Bulgaria as the 21st member of the euro area 💶 from 1/1/2026.
This has been a long journey since 2007, with key progress in the past 5 years.
How did Bulgaria make it? Here are three key points about 🇧🇬 economy and society and some myth busting.
This has been a long journey since 2007, with key progress in the past 5 years.
How did Bulgaria make it? Here are three key points about 🇧🇬 economy and society and some myth busting.
July 7, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Today #EU finance ministers will officially welcome Bulgaria as the 21st member of the euro area 💶 from 1/1/2026.
This has been a long journey since 2007, with key progress in the past 5 years.
How did Bulgaria make it? Here are three key points about 🇧🇬 economy and society and some myth busting.
This has been a long journey since 2007, with key progress in the past 5 years.
How did Bulgaria make it? Here are three key points about 🇧🇬 economy and society and some myth busting.
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Economic development moves jobs from agriculture to manufacturing, and then on to services
• Drop in share of manufacturing jobs mostly illustrates productivity growth through automation
• In real terms US manufacturing output is more than twice higher than it was in early 1980s
• Drop in share of manufacturing jobs mostly illustrates productivity growth through automation
• In real terms US manufacturing output is more than twice higher than it was in early 1980s
June 24, 2025 at 7:01 AM
Economic development moves jobs from agriculture to manufacturing, and then on to services
• Drop in share of manufacturing jobs mostly illustrates productivity growth through automation
• In real terms US manufacturing output is more than twice higher than it was in early 1980s
• Drop in share of manufacturing jobs mostly illustrates productivity growth through automation
• In real terms US manufacturing output is more than twice higher than it was in early 1980s
Since Politico asked, I explained (see link).
TLDR- no, 🇧🇬 did not game its data.
Effect was 1/12th of what is claimed and does not change fulfilment of criterion.
Let's make sure this does not fuel disinfo.
@izakaminska.bsky.social @atanaspekanov.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/europebu...
TLDR- no, 🇧🇬 did not game its data.
Effect was 1/12th of what is claimed and does not change fulfilment of criterion.
Let's make sure this does not fuel disinfo.
@izakaminska.bsky.social @atanaspekanov.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/europebu...
June 20, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Since Politico asked, I explained (see link).
TLDR- no, 🇧🇬 did not game its data.
Effect was 1/12th of what is claimed and does not change fulfilment of criterion.
Let's make sure this does not fuel disinfo.
@izakaminska.bsky.social @atanaspekanov.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/europebu...
TLDR- no, 🇧🇬 did not game its data.
Effect was 1/12th of what is claimed and does not change fulfilment of criterion.
Let's make sure this does not fuel disinfo.
@izakaminska.bsky.social @atanaspekanov.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/europebu...
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Who were the 10 largest military spenders in 2024?
1) United States 🇺🇸
2) China 🇨🇳
3) Russia 🇷🇺
4) Germany 🇩🇪
5) India 🇮🇳
6) United Kingdom 🇬🇧
7) Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦
8) Ukraine 🇺🇦
9) France 🇫🇷
10) Japan 🇯🇵
New SIPRI data on #MilitarySpending out now ➡️ bit.ly/3GH5GNe
1) United States 🇺🇸
2) China 🇨🇳
3) Russia 🇷🇺
4) Germany 🇩🇪
5) India 🇮🇳
6) United Kingdom 🇬🇧
7) Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦
8) Ukraine 🇺🇦
9) France 🇫🇷
10) Japan 🇯🇵
New SIPRI data on #MilitarySpending out now ➡️ bit.ly/3GH5GNe
April 27, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Who were the 10 largest military spenders in 2024?
1) United States 🇺🇸
2) China 🇨🇳
3) Russia 🇷🇺
4) Germany 🇩🇪
5) India 🇮🇳
6) United Kingdom 🇬🇧
7) Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦
8) Ukraine 🇺🇦
9) France 🇫🇷
10) Japan 🇯🇵
New SIPRI data on #MilitarySpending out now ➡️ bit.ly/3GH5GNe
1) United States 🇺🇸
2) China 🇨🇳
3) Russia 🇷🇺
4) Germany 🇩🇪
5) India 🇮🇳
6) United Kingdom 🇬🇧
7) Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦
8) Ukraine 🇺🇦
9) France 🇫🇷
10) Japan 🇯🇵
New SIPRI data on #MilitarySpending out now ➡️ bit.ly/3GH5GNe
Amazing to have an article so focused on exchange pegs without *the* trilemma :)
That said, interesting fact - 🇧🇬 has one of the longest fixed pegs in modern monetary history, from 1997 to today. It served the country well & 🇧🇬 is on track to adopt the euro in 2026.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
That said, interesting fact - 🇧🇬 has one of the longest fixed pegs in modern monetary history, from 1997 to today. It served the country well & 🇧🇬 is on track to adopt the euro in 2026.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Hell is other people’s currencies
As the Trump administration may soon find out
www.economist.com
April 23, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Amazing to have an article so focused on exchange pegs without *the* trilemma :)
That said, interesting fact - 🇧🇬 has one of the longest fixed pegs in modern monetary history, from 1997 to today. It served the country well & 🇧🇬 is on track to adopt the euro in 2026.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
That said, interesting fact - 🇧🇬 has one of the longest fixed pegs in modern monetary history, from 1997 to today. It served the country well & 🇧🇬 is on track to adopt the euro in 2026.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
It is never a good financial sign when Kindleberger and central bank swap lines are in the FT. For now, a "what if" scenario.
Avoiding Kindleberger’s Trap - on.ft.com/421m2Zw via @FT
Avoiding Kindleberger’s Trap - on.ft.com/421m2Zw via @FT
Avoiding Kindleberger’s Trap
Why doubts over the Fed’s dollar swap lines are such a big deal
on.ft.com
April 8, 2025 at 2:11 PM
It is never a good financial sign when Kindleberger and central bank swap lines are in the FT. For now, a "what if" scenario.
Avoiding Kindleberger’s Trap - on.ft.com/421m2Zw via @FT
Avoiding Kindleberger’s Trap - on.ft.com/421m2Zw via @FT
Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
This is the analysis I've been waiting for, @SimonEvenett & Fernando Martin apply the US's "reciprocal tariff formula" to services trade. If others looked at services the way the US is looking at goods they'd be justified in imposing some big tariffs! globaltradealert.org/reports/ZEIT...
April 7, 2025 at 10:55 AM
This is the analysis I've been waiting for, @SimonEvenett & Fernando Martin apply the US's "reciprocal tariff formula" to services trade. If others looked at services the way the US is looking at goods they'd be justified in imposing some big tariffs! globaltradealert.org/reports/ZEIT...
One of the better podcasts on the BIG TRADE THING, focused on the impact in the US. Esp. good with @douglasirwin.bsky.social on historical analogies and contemporary political economy.
open.spotify.com/episode/50as...
open.spotify.com/episode/50as...
Import-extort: what to make of Donald Trump’s titanic tariffs
Economist Podcasts · Episode
open.spotify.com
April 5, 2025 at 8:58 AM
One of the better podcasts on the BIG TRADE THING, focused on the impact in the US. Esp. good with @douglasirwin.bsky.social on historical analogies and contemporary political economy.
open.spotify.com/episode/50as...
open.spotify.com/episode/50as...