Jack Russell
@jackru.bsky.social
1.3K followers 4.3K following 290 posts
Londoner in Norn Iron | Dad of girls | Data Communicator | Inclusive Education Activist | Glastonbury Pilgrim | Gödelian Strange Loop | Runner | ENTP | bit.ly/PfIE
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jackru.bsky.social
The Tories' 21 defections to Reform so far today have now put them ahead of Labour on total defections since LE2025:

CON: 134↘ ↗12 (-122)
LAB: 130↘ ↗11 (-119)
IND: 45↘ ↗239 (+194)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗85 (+71)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025. The Tories have now had 134 defections, putting them ahead of Labour on 130.
jackru.bsky.social
I'm ~25-35 tabs across 3-6 windows, strict inbox zero. Who's with me?
jackru.bsky.social
We need the crosstab against # of unread emails 🤣
jackru.bsky.social
Snap! 27 across 4. But that feels relatively sane for me. My wife regularly has 50+ in a single window which I just can't wrap my head around.
Reposted by Jack Russell
bladeofthes.bsky.social
What is happening in Gaza is Genocide summed up perfectly in 2 minutes while a stunned Piers Morgan sits in silence.
Reposted by Jack Russell
sundersays.bsky.social
The Bishop of Birmingham has written to the Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick about his comments about Handsworth
Reposted by Jack Russell
omaromalleykhan.bsky.social
I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter

Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them
jackru.bsky.social
I've updated my Local Election 2026 projection to reflect the CON -> RFM defections today. It's a very basic model which makes some pretty big assumptions (mainly that byelection results will be representative of LE2026). Effective number of parties = 6.4 🤯
A table showing projected seat totals following the local elections in 2026, assuming current trends continue.
jackru.bsky.social
The Tories' 21 defections to Reform so far today have now put them ahead of Labour on total defections since LE2025:

CON: 134↘ ↗12 (-122)
LAB: 130↘ ↗11 (-119)
IND: 45↘ ↗239 (+194)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗85 (+71)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025. The Tories have now had 134 defections, putting them ahead of Labour on 130.
jackru.bsky.social
This nails Jenrick's hypocrisy.
lewisgoodall.com
Am wondering if all of those suddenly deciding they’re against communities living “parallel lives” might reconsider their support of religious schools? Or indeed private ones?
Reposted by Jack Russell
chadbourn.bsky.social
Psephologist Sir John Curtice told a Demos-sponsored event at the Conservative Party conference fringe that the Lib Dems “will almost undoubtedly win more seats” than the Tories at the next GE.

“The LD vote is now more geographically concentrated than your vote.”
jackru.bsky.social
That's crazy high turnout for a by-election. Local council elections normally have 30-40% turnout, whereas by-elections can be in the 20s. So could well be that other parties' turnout dropped by normal amounts but Reform's rocketed. But obviously nothing can be proved - just seems likely to me.
jackru.bsky.social
More excellent bubble charts from @benansell.bsky.social - this thread is well worth a read.
benansell.bsky.social
A little end of the week treat with my new bubble graphs. Thought I would break down some of the cross party differences (at least as of May 2025) on a few different 'cultural' variables. So a very quick thread 1/n
benansell.bsky.social
On the morning of Keir Starmer's conference speech here's a new post on an odd psychopathology in British politics - our main parties don't like the people who vote for them - the dreaded Professional Managerial Class. And so they are acting out like a divorced dad seeking cooler voters. 1/n
jackru.bsky.social
Yes - a few of those have already occurred over this period (and are deduplicated so just show start and end parties). This is just a snapshot of the current situation.
jackru.bsky.social
And movement between parties (or independent designation) due to defections / losses of whip over the same period:

LAB: 126↘ ↗11 (-115)
CON: 111↘ ↗12 (-99)
IND: 44↘ ↗234 (+190)
LOC: 34↘ ↗5 (-29)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗63 (+49)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025.
jackru.bsky.social
Wow. Just wow. Incredibly bad.
Reposted by Jack Russell
robfordmancs.bsky.social
Imagine being the leader of the party which delivered Brexit going into a filmed interview with a Northern Ireland journalist at a time when your competence is being questioned, and not thinking to check how Northern Ireland voted in the EU referendum beforehand.
stephenkb.bsky.social
Fascinated by her exact blend of over-confidence, where you can see her doing that weird blinking thing she does when 'her complete lack of preparation or genuine intellectual curiosity' collides with 'facts she had not previously bothered to be across'.
localnotail.bsky.social
no excuse for being this bad
jackru.bsky.social
Or their support is just more enthusiastic and spontaneously turns out at a higher rate than exhausted supporters of the other parties.
jackru.bsky.social
More likely that Reform have an effective get out the vote ground game that turns out previous non-voters, and everyone else's share shrinks in comparison (not direct switchers).