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jackru.bsky.social
Jack Russell
@jackru.bsky.social
1.5K followers 4.5K following 740 posts
Londoner in Norn Iron | Dad of girls | Data Communicator | Inclusive Education Activist | Glastonbury Pilgrim | Gödelian Strange Loop | Runner | ENTP | bit.ly/PfIE
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jackru.bsky.social
This might have something to do with it?!
January 25, 2026 at 10:44 PM
jackru.bsky.social
Here are the net movements due to defections and loss of the whip over the same period:

LAB: 202↘ ↗12 (-190)
CON: 187↘ ↗29 (-158)
IND: 92↘ ↗324 (+232)
LOC: 45↘ ↗39 (-6)
RFM: 34↘ ↗131 (+97)
LDM: 29↘ ↗22 (-7)
GRN: 15↘ ↗52 (+37)
SNP: 5↘ ↗0 (-5)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025. Flow numbers in the text of the main post.
January 23, 2026 at 1:12 PM
jackru.bsky.social
Here are the net movements due to defections and loss of the whip over the same period:

LAB: 197↘ ↗12 (-185)
CON: 187↘ ↗27 (-160)
IND: 89↘ ↗316 (+227)
LOC: 44↘ ↗39 (-5)
RFM: 33↘ ↗131 (+98)
LDM: 26↘ ↗21 (-5)
GRN: 15↘ ↗50 (+35)
SNP: 5↘ ↗0 (-5)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025. Flow numbers in the text of the main post.
January 16, 2026 at 11:00 AM
jackru.bsky.social
Here are the net movements due to defections over the same period:

LAB: 180↘ ↗12 (-168)
CON: 163↘ ↗23 (-140)
IND: 75↘ ↗314 (+239)
LOC: 41↘ ↗24 (-17)
RFM: 30↘ ↗102 (+72)
LDM: 23↘ ↗18 (-5)
GRN: 12↘ ↗35 (+23)
SNP: 4↘ ↗0 (-4)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025. Flow numbers in the text of the main post.
December 5, 2025 at 12:50 PM
jackru.bsky.social
Here are the net movements due to defections and expulsions (loss of whip) over the same period:

LAB: 162↘ ↗11 (-151)
CON: 158↘ ↗18 (-140)
IND: 66↘ ↗291 (+225)
LOC: 40↘ ↗21 (-19)
RFM: 29↘ ↗101 (+72)
LDM: 21↘ ↗17 (-4)
GRN: 8↘ ↗29 (+21)
SNP: 4↘ ↗0 (-4)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025. Flow numbers in the text of the main post.
November 14, 2025 at 12:55 PM
jackru.bsky.social
Defections since Local Elections in May this year (to 31st Oct):

LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142)
CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130)
IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217)
LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17)
RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67)
LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6)
GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025.
November 6, 2025 at 10:26 AM
jackru.bsky.social
If these successful defense percentages are exactly replicated in the 2026 local elections (and transfers between parties are also replicated), the net movement in seats will be as shown in the table below:
A table displaying projected seat totals after the English Local Elections of May 2026. Compared to May 2025, the parties are projected to have the following net movements in seat totals: Labour Party had 6134.0 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to lose 1701.0 coucillors to end up with 4433.0 coucillors. Liberal Democrats had 3197.0 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 562.0 coucillors to end up with 3759.0 coucillors. Conservative and Unionist had 4413.0 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to lose 907.0 coucillors to end up with 3506.0 coucillors. Reform UK had 810.0 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 1808.0 coucillors to end up with 2618.0 coucillors. Independent / Other had 2578.0 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 20.0 coucillors to end up with 2598.0 coucillors. Green Party had 894.0 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 230.0 coucillors to end up with 1124.0 coucillors.
October 31, 2025 at 12:43 PM
jackru.bsky.social
Here are the net movements due to defections and expulsions (loss of whip) over the same period:

LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142)
CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130)
IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217)
LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17)
RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67)
LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6)
GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025.
October 31, 2025 at 12:12 PM
jackru.bsky.social
Bluesky just hit 40,000,000 accounts! Congratulations to @jay.bsky.team and all the team. There's never been a better time to leave X...
October 31, 2025 at 8:33 AM
jackru.bsky.social
A line chart paints a thousand words 💚
A line chart showing polling in the UK, with the Green party demonstrating a classic hockey stick pattern, Labour a slide into the abyss.
October 30, 2025 at 5:55 PM
jackru.bsky.social
Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking into account all defections and by-elections since LE2025 and now updated with results from Lib Dem "super-Thursday" last week 😂.

Model assumptions in comment below.
A table displaying projected seat totals after the English Local Elections of May 2026. Compared to May 2025, the parties are projected to have the following net movements in seat totals: Labour Party had 6134 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to lose 1701 coucillors to end up with 4433 coucillors. Liberal Democrats had 3197 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 492 coucillors to end up with 3689 coucillors. Conservative and Unionist had 4413 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to lose 947 coucillors to end up with 3466 coucillors. Reform UK had 810 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 1908 coucillors to end up with 2718 coucillors. Independent / Other had 2578 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 5 coucillors to end up with 2583 coucillors. Green Party had 894 coucillors as of May 1st 2025 and are projected to gain 254 coucillors to end up with 1148 coucillors.
October 18, 2025 at 12:46 PM
jackru.bsky.social
And defections (or losses of whip) over the same period:

CON: 142↘ ↗14 (-128)
LAB: 140↘ ↗11 (-129)
IND: 58↘ ↗254 (+196)
LOC: 38↘ ↗16 (-22)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 18↘ ↗94 (+76)
GRN: 5↘ ↗19 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)

Pretty much neck & neck between LAB and CON.
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025.
October 17, 2025 at 11:56 AM
jackru.bsky.social
Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking onto account all defections and by-elections since LE2025. NB: this is a projection, not a prediction (high-level assumptions in comment below). If I was to hazard a guess at where it will be wrong, I think Green gains will be higher, Reform lower.
A table showing seat predictions for the English Local Elections in 2026.
October 11, 2025 at 3:16 PM
jackru.bsky.social
And inter-party movements due to defections / loss of whip over the same period:

CON: 138↘ ↗14 (-124)
LAB: 132↘ ↗11 (-121)
IND: 47↘ ↗244 (+197)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 15↘ ↗87 (+72)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025.
October 10, 2025 at 10:42 AM
jackru.bsky.social
Can you apply the effective party metric to seat shares (or councillor shares) as opposed to vote share? If so, this number tallies well with the current effective number of parties across local government (5.2). And my simple projection see this rising to 6.4 after LE2026:
A projection of local councillor totals following the Local Elections in England in 2026.
October 9, 2025 at 1:09 PM
jackru.bsky.social
I've updated my Local Election 2026 projection to reflect the CON -> RFM defections today. It's a very basic model which makes some pretty big assumptions (mainly that byelection results will be representative of LE2026). Effective number of parties = 6.4 🤯
A table showing projected seat totals following the local elections in 2026, assuming current trends continue.
October 7, 2025 at 4:25 PM
jackru.bsky.social
The Tories' 21 defections to Reform so far today have now put them ahead of Labour on total defections since LE2025:

CON: 134↘ ↗12 (-122)
LAB: 130↘ ↗11 (-119)
IND: 45↘ ↗239 (+194)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗85 (+71)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025. The Tories have now had 134 defections, putting them ahead of Labour on 130.
October 7, 2025 at 1:00 PM
jackru.bsky.social
And movement between parties (or independent designation) due to defections / losses of whip over the same period:

LAB: 126↘ ↗11 (-115)
CON: 111↘ ↗12 (-99)
IND: 44↘ ↗234 (+190)
LOC: 34↘ ↗5 (-29)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗63 (+49)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025.
October 3, 2025 at 1:51 PM
jackru.bsky.social
If by-election and defection trends continue into the next set of local elections, you'll also have nearly 1,200 local councillors in 221 days' time.
September 28, 2025 at 4:29 PM
jackru.bsky.social
Also, if current trends continue, Labour will be on course to lose almost 200 local councillors between now and the next set of local elections, and a further 1,300 at those elections themselves.
A table showing projected results for local elections in England in 2026. It projects Labour losses of 1,680 between locals in 2025 and 2026; Tory losses of 889; Lib Dem gains of 399; Green gains of 299; and Reform UK gains of 1,845 seats.
September 28, 2025 at 9:00 AM
jackru.bsky.social
The chart below is a visual summary of what LE2026 seat movements would look like under this model.

🚨 To repeat, this is a projection, not a prediction, based on quite thin data (110 by-elections so far since May). But it should set some alarm bells ringing.
A flow diagram showing projected seat movements between parties at the Local Elections in 2026 in England.
September 27, 2025 at 3:29 PM
jackru.bsky.social
🚨Local Election 2026 Projection 🚨

While the next general election could be over 3 years away, the next set of locals are in just 222 days’ time.

Based on local by-elections & defections since May, I have made a projection of their likely outcome (methodology & caveats in a 🧵 below).
A table showing projected results for local elections in England in 2026. It projects Labour losses of 1,680; Tory losses of 889; Lib Dem gains of 399; Green gains of 299; and Reform UK gains of 1,845 seats.
September 27, 2025 at 3:29 PM
jackru.bsky.social
I agree. Incidentally I have just put together a chart of local councillor defections since the local elections in May. In addition to big name MP and ex-MP defections, 36 Tory local councillors have jumped ship to Reform since then.
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025.
September 26, 2025 at 3:46 PM
jackru.bsky.social
Here are the net movements due to defections over the same period:

LAB: 121↘ ↗11 (-110)
CON: 108↘ ↗11 (-97)
IND: 42↘ ↗222 (+180)
LOC: 32↘ ↗5 (-27)
LDM: 17↘ ↗13 (-4)
RFM: 11↘ ↗62 (+51)
GRN: 5↘ ↗15 (+10)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025.
September 26, 2025 at 12:19 PM
jackru.bsky.social
Now updated to remove double defections - normally those e.g. moving CON -> IND, then IND -> RFM a few days later. This chart now shows net movement.
September 20, 2025 at 3:34 PM