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Jack Russell

@jackru.bsky.social

1.3K followers 4.3K following 300 posts

Londoner in Norn Iron | Dad of girls | Data Communicator | Inclusive Education Activist | Glastonbury Pilgrim | Gödelian Strange Loop | Runner | ENTP | bit.ly/PfIE

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Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 7m

NB: this is a projection, not a prediction. It makes two main assumptions:

A) that by-elections and defections will continue at the current rate until LE2026

B) that the proportional transfer of seats between parties seen so far in the 122 by-elections since May 1st will be replicated at LE2026

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 7m

Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking onto account all defections and by-elections since LE2025. NB: this is a projection, not a prediction (high-level assumptions in comment below). If I was to hazard a guess at where it will be wrong, I think Green gains will be higher, Reform lower.

A table showing seat predictions for the English Local Elections in 2026.

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 3h

What a beautiful poem - thank you for sharing.

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 17h

Single transferable vote ftw then?!

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 1d

And inter-party movements due to defections / loss of whip over the same period:

CON: 138↘ ↗14 (-124)
LAB: 132↘ ↗11 (-121)
IND: 47↘ ↗244 (+197)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 15↘ ↗87 (+72)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)

A sankey diagram showing the flow of defections since the local elections in May 2025.

Reposted by Jack Russell

Humanists UK @humanists.uk · 2d

The humanist meaning of life with A C Grayling 🔍

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 1d

Thank you. You're not a killjoy. To be a killjoy requires firstly some joy to kill. And although I admit in the early days of Gen AI I was once in fits of giggles at the jokes it came out with, today's AI is devoid of fun, as is often the case once tech moves from curious experiment to big business.

Reposted by Jack Russell

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1d

🤦Please tell me he hasn't only just realised this....

PM Admits He Must 'Make The Case' For Benefits Of Digital ID

Keir Starmer said the government needs to emphasise the benefits of digital ID following criticism of how the policy has been sold to the public.

www.politicshome.com

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 1d

One point made succinctly and well.

Reposted by Jack Russell

Paul Murphy TD @paulmurphy.pbp.ie · 2d

"I would smear the bejaysus out of her, simply because you've nothing to lose... you've got to create a fear... in my experience, nothing works like negative campaigning."

They're really openly saying the quiet part out loud now aren't they...🤔

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 2d

Conservatives get a +3% bounce, translating into 6th position in the MRP 🤯

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 2d

This assumes "others" are all tiny and contribute a vanishingly small amount to the sum-of-squares.

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 2d

Can you apply the effective party metric to seat shares (or councillor shares) as opposed to vote share? If so, this number tallies well with the current effective number of parties across local government (5.2). And my simple projection see this rising to 6.4 after LE2026:

A projection of local councillor totals following the Local Elections in England in 2026.

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 2d

MRPs at this stage are pretty (very) silly, but still - Tories in 6th place and Greens on 36 seats! Bonkers.

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 2d

Seat Projection:

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 2d

I'm ~25-35 tabs across 3-6 windows, strict inbox zero. Who's with me?

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 2d

Also ctrl-`

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 2d

Multiple windows

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 2d

We need the crosstab against # of unread emails 🤣

Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 2d

Snap! 27 across 4. But that feels relatively sane for me. My wife regularly has 50+ in a single window which I just can't wrap my head around.

Reposted by Jack Russell

Humanists UK @humanists.uk · 2d

Withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights would represent a grave attack on the basic values of fairness, dignity, and equality that underpin our democracy.

humanists.uk/2025/10/08/h...

Humanists alarmed by further attacks on the European Convention on Human Rights

Humanists UK has condemned the Conservative Party’s commitment to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) if they win the next election. The announcement comes only weeks after Re...

Reposted by Jack Russell

Progressive Politics NI @ppni.bsky.social · 3d

More proof that we in NI are, unfortunately, playing our part in the genocide in Palestine. We must call it out to play our part in stopping it.
m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/norther...

Further proof NI firm supplied fighter jet parts to Israel

A company in Northern Ireland supplied parts for F-35 fighter jets, despite assurances from economy ministers that Invest NI does not support projects that supply arms to Israel.

m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk

Reposted by Jack Russell

BladeoftheSun @bladeofthes.bsky.social · 3d

What is happening in Gaza is Genocide summed up perfectly in 2 minutes while a stunned Piers Morgan sits in silence.

Reposted by Jack Russell

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 3d

The Bishop of Birmingham has written to the Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick about his comments about Handsworth

Reposted by Jack Russell

Omar Khan @omaromalleykhan.bsky.social · 3d

I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter

Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them

Reposted by Jack Russell

Cold War Steve @coldwarsteve.bsky.social · 4d