Russian oil and gas revenues relative to GDP...

The fact that Ukraine could defend its freedom for almost 4 years is the good news.

No, 30k. I explained in the article.

You can find all the data and the charts here:
janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-fe...

Russia is not officially at war. In two months in Ukraine, more Russian soldiers are killed than during the whole Soviet war against Afghanistan.

October 2024 was unusually big, 9.6% of annual spending. Long-term average is 8% of total, October 2025 was 7.9% of plan (or 7.5% of forecast).

Source of the latest federal budget data from Russia's Finance Ministry: minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...

If history is any indication, the total in 2025 will be 2.4 trillion rubles ($29.5 billion) higher than planned, and the deficit will be closer to 3.5% of GDP, not 2.6%. I explained this estimate in my latest post: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-un...

My latest post also discusses why several regions lowered their sign-on bonuses. These regions are "recruitment overachievers" who could afford to focus on fixing their budgets. Read more here: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-re...

Regional data also provides insights into Russian losses. Although this method of estimating Russian KIA is still "under development," the results closely align with Mediazona's 200 project data.

Source: Source: minfin.gov.ru/ru/statistic...

Oil and gas revenues were equal to 4.3% of Russian monthly GDP (last October: 7.23%).

That is too little. We can now increase Russia's plans stepwise, so that September spending is not an unrealistic 72%, but maybe 69% or 68% of the total. On the right side of the table you can read what the total spending would be (and how much higher) if September was not 72% but 71%, 70% etc...

I'm predicting how much Russia will spend in 2025 based on previous years spending patterns. Normally, only 66% of the budget are spent after September, leaving over 30% for Q4. IF spending will be as Russia plans in 2025, it WOULD have spent 72% already, leaving only 28% for Q4.

Borrowing is more difficult for Russia. Interest on new debt is around 15% at the moment. Russia pays about 2x as much as Germany for debt service, and will probably pay more than France next year (% of GDP). At 15% interest, even 30% debt/GDP is already a huge burden.

PS: The spending for Oct 31st is a forecast based on an average October. We will know the actual total in about 10 days.