Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de
Russia & Economics
All views private
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin)
Picture: Tamek Kowalski
All views private
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin)
Picture: Tamek Kowalski
Nur noch der Krieg.
Witkoff ist ein Genie!
Witkoff ist ein Genie!
January 22, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Nur noch der Krieg.
Witkoff ist ein Genie!
Witkoff ist ein Genie!
Trump's Greenland narrative is almost a 1:1 copy of Putin's Crimea narrative:
"It belonged to us in the past. Stupid leaders gave it away for no good reason. Now we want it back. We need it for our security. We need to protect it. It will be best for the people who live there."
"It belonged to us in the past. Stupid leaders gave it away for no good reason. Now we want it back. We need it for our security. We need to protect it. It will be best for the people who live there."
January 22, 2026 at 9:49 AM
Trump's Greenland narrative is almost a 1:1 copy of Putin's Crimea narrative:
"It belonged to us in the past. Stupid leaders gave it away for no good reason. Now we want it back. We need it for our security. We need to protect it. It will be best for the people who live there."
"It belonged to us in the past. Stupid leaders gave it away for no good reason. Now we want it back. We need it for our security. We need to protect it. It will be best for the people who live there."
Russian industrial-scale production of drones has changed the character of the war in Ukraine last year. From 2024 to 2025, drone attacks rose 5x, from 11,000 to 55,000.
www.kyiv-dialogue.org/en/news/news...
www.kyiv-dialogue.org/en/news/news...
January 21, 2026 at 10:36 AM
Russian industrial-scale production of drones has changed the character of the war in Ukraine last year. From 2024 to 2025, drone attacks rose 5x, from 11,000 to 55,000.
www.kyiv-dialogue.org/en/news/news...
www.kyiv-dialogue.org/en/news/news...
Foreign policy think tank in 2026...
January 20, 2026 at 11:49 AM
Foreign policy think tank in 2026...
If you say that Putin should get Crimea or Donbas, then you can't say that Trump shouldn't get Greenland. It's the same redrawing of borders by great powers at the expense of smaller neighbours. Normalizing the annexation of Crimea has paved the way for Trump's Greenland demands.
January 20, 2026 at 7:28 AM
If you say that Putin should get Crimea or Donbas, then you can't say that Trump shouldn't get Greenland. It's the same redrawing of borders by great powers at the expense of smaller neighbours. Normalizing the annexation of Crimea has paved the way for Trump's Greenland demands.
Russia's federal deficit in 2025 did not exceed 2.6% of GDP, according to preliminary data from Russia's finance ministry. There was very, very little spending in December. It will be interesting to see the consolidated budget (incl. regions/social security).
minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...
minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...
January 19, 2026 at 1:25 PM
Russia's federal deficit in 2025 did not exceed 2.6% of GDP, according to preliminary data from Russia's finance ministry. There was very, very little spending in December. It will be interesting to see the consolidated budget (incl. regions/social security).
minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...
minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...
Yes, 30% of Republicans would approve illegally attacking a peaceful NATO ally to annex territory.
Source: www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...
Source: www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...
January 18, 2026 at 5:28 PM
Yes, 30% of Republicans would approve illegally attacking a peaceful NATO ally to annex territory.
Source: www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...
Source: www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...
Reposted by Janis Kluge
Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/
January 18, 2026 at 3:04 AM
Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/
Reposted by Janis Kluge
Der Krieg gegen die 🇺🇦 ist eine Frage des Durchhaltens. @jakluge.de spricht deshalb mit @gresselgustav.bsky.social, @efdavies.bsky.social & @jcbehrends.bsky.social über die Lage der russ. Wirtschaft, die Aussichten für 2026 – und über das Wesen des Putin-Regimes. Mod: @richvolkmann.bsky.social
January 18, 2026 at 8:09 AM
Der Krieg gegen die 🇺🇦 ist eine Frage des Durchhaltens. @jakluge.de spricht deshalb mit @gresselgustav.bsky.social, @efdavies.bsky.social & @jcbehrends.bsky.social über die Lage der russ. Wirtschaft, die Aussichten für 2026 – und über das Wesen des Putin-Regimes. Mod: @richvolkmann.bsky.social
China has shown us how to win a trade war against Trump. Deals are worth nothing. Only leverage counts. EU has to push back.
January 17, 2026 at 5:16 PM
China has shown us how to win a trade war against Trump. Deals are worth nothing. Only leverage counts. EU has to push back.
Russia's finance minister, Siluanov, reported that the budget deficit was 2.6% of GDP last year. This implies an unusually frugal December, which breaks with previous spending patterns.
www.interfax.ru/business/106...
www.interfax.ru/business/106...
January 17, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Russia's finance minister, Siluanov, reported that the budget deficit was 2.6% of GDP last year. This implies an unusually frugal December, which breaks with previous spending patterns.
www.interfax.ru/business/106...
www.interfax.ru/business/106...
Regional bonus size was not correct in my previous post (thanks to @leoskyview.bsky.social for pointing it out).
Here is the development over the past 2 years.
Late 2025 was messy because some regions likely moved payments to 2026 (budget issues), others may have fulfilled their quota early.
Here is the development over the past 2 years.
Late 2025 was messy because some regions likely moved payments to 2026 (budget issues), others may have fulfilled their quota early.
January 17, 2026 at 8:34 AM
Regional bonus size was not correct in my previous post (thanks to @leoskyview.bsky.social for pointing it out).
Here is the development over the past 2 years.
Late 2025 was messy because some regions likely moved payments to 2026 (budget issues), others may have fulfilled their quota early.
Here is the development over the past 2 years.
Late 2025 was messy because some regions likely moved payments to 2026 (budget issues), others may have fulfilled their quota early.
2024
Regional bonuses: ~200 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~110 billion rubles.
2025
Regional bonuses: ~600 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~160 billion rubles.
Regional bonus increased (avg contract):
2024: 500k -> 1.5m.
2025: 1.5m -> 2m.
Federal bonus increased:
August 2024: 195k -> 400k.
Regional bonuses: ~200 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~110 billion rubles.
2025
Regional bonuses: ~600 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~160 billion rubles.
Regional bonus increased (avg contract):
2024: 500k -> 1.5m.
2025: 1.5m -> 2m.
Federal bonus increased:
August 2024: 195k -> 400k.
Can you post up some like-with-like comparisons for 2025 Vs 2025 total recruitment and total bonus costs? Would be interesting.
It seems like Medvedev's claims dropped from 450k in '24 to 422k in '25. Still too high.
It seems like Medvedev's claims dropped from 450k in '24 to 422k in '25. Still too high.
January 16, 2026 at 8:07 PM
2024
Regional bonuses: ~200 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~110 billion rubles.
2025
Regional bonuses: ~600 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~160 billion rubles.
Regional bonus increased (avg contract):
2024: 500k -> 1.5m.
2025: 1.5m -> 2m.
Federal bonus increased:
August 2024: 195k -> 400k.
Regional bonuses: ~200 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~110 billion rubles.
2025
Regional bonuses: ~600 billion rubles.
Federal bonuses: ~160 billion rubles.
Regional bonus increased (avg contract):
2024: 500k -> 1.5m.
2025: 1.5m -> 2m.
Federal bonus increased:
August 2024: 195k -> 400k.
In 2025, sign-on bonuses alone were around 0.3-0.4% of Russian GDP (700-800 billion rubles), 80% of which came from regional budgets (~600 billion rubles). Of course, the bonuses are not the only cost of recruitment. Total payouts for casualties are likely to be much higher.
Dmitri Medvedev announced today that 422,704 Russians signed a contract with the military in 2025 (contract soldiers). My estimate based on regional budgets is 407,000. Several regions stopped paying out bonuses in December (budget issues).
January 16, 2026 at 1:32 PM
In 2025, sign-on bonuses alone were around 0.3-0.4% of Russian GDP (700-800 billion rubles), 80% of which came from regional budgets (~600 billion rubles). Of course, the bonuses are not the only cost of recruitment. Total payouts for casualties are likely to be much higher.
Dmitri Medvedev announced today that 422,704 Russians signed a contract with the military in 2025 (contract soldiers). My estimate based on regional budgets is 407,000. Several regions stopped paying out bonuses in December (budget issues).
January 16, 2026 at 1:30 PM
Dmitri Medvedev announced today that 422,704 Russians signed a contract with the military in 2025 (contract soldiers). My estimate based on regional budgets is 407,000. Several regions stopped paying out bonuses in December (budget issues).
Russia currently gets just $35.6 export revenue per barrel of Urals oil (December data). That's a massive discount of $27.1 relative to Brent, and ca. 2,800 rubles per barrel. Because of production costs, the oil taxes start only above 1,200 rubles per barrel (currently ~$15).
January 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Russia currently gets just $35.6 export revenue per barrel of Urals oil (December data). That's a massive discount of $27.1 relative to Brent, and ca. 2,800 rubles per barrel. Because of production costs, the oil taxes start only above 1,200 rubles per barrel (currently ~$15).
Lesenswerte Studie meines Kollegen Johannes Thimm über die Erosion der US-Demokratie:
▶️ USA bewegen sich in Richtung kompetitiver Autoritarismus
▶️ Trump agiert außenpolitisch nicht "transaktional", sondern durch Zwang
▶️ Freie & faire Wahlen 2026+2028 fraglich.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
▶️ USA bewegen sich in Richtung kompetitiver Autoritarismus
▶️ Trump agiert außenpolitisch nicht "transaktional", sondern durch Zwang
▶️ Freie & faire Wahlen 2026+2028 fraglich.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Systemsprenger – Donald Trump und die Erosion der Demokratie in den USA
Das übergeordnete Prinzip im Handeln von Präsident Donald Trump ist die Konsolidierung der eigenen Macht. Weder in der Innen- noch in der...
www.swp-berlin.org
January 16, 2026 at 10:44 AM
Lesenswerte Studie meines Kollegen Johannes Thimm über die Erosion der US-Demokratie:
▶️ USA bewegen sich in Richtung kompetitiver Autoritarismus
▶️ Trump agiert außenpolitisch nicht "transaktional", sondern durch Zwang
▶️ Freie & faire Wahlen 2026+2028 fraglich.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
▶️ USA bewegen sich in Richtung kompetitiver Autoritarismus
▶️ Trump agiert außenpolitisch nicht "transaktional", sondern durch Zwang
▶️ Freie & faire Wahlen 2026+2028 fraglich.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Sanctions are hurting: Russia just had its worst monthly oil and gas revenue since the start of the full-scale war (relative to GDP). In nominal rubles, only January 2023 was worse.
January 15, 2026 at 9:17 PM
Sanctions are hurting: Russia just had its worst monthly oil and gas revenue since the start of the full-scale war (relative to GDP). In nominal rubles, only January 2023 was worse.
Trump's shtick is to humiliate weaker players for show. This is what Greenland is about, there is no actual strategy behind it. If Europe sticks together and demonstrates to Trump that it is not weak, he will lose interest.
January 15, 2026 at 11:31 AM
Trump's shtick is to humiliate weaker players for show. This is what Greenland is about, there is no actual strategy behind it. If Europe sticks together and demonstrates to Trump that it is not weak, he will lose interest.
Over the past 25 years, German per-capita GDP (PPP) gradually caught up to US levels, but the gap widened again after the pandemic (massive fiscal stimulus in the US may have contributed to this). Data: data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY...
January 14, 2026 at 1:12 PM
Over the past 25 years, German per-capita GDP (PPP) gradually caught up to US levels, but the gap widened again after the pandemic (massive fiscal stimulus in the US may have contributed to this). Data: data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY...
Reposted by Janis Kluge
The main reason why the US economy overall is growing faster than the German economy is: US population growth. US population increased by more than 20% since 2000 - Germany's population hardly changed at all.
data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP...
data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP...
January 13, 2026 at 1:39 PM
The main reason why the US economy overall is growing faster than the German economy is: US population growth. US population increased by more than 20% since 2000 - Germany's population hardly changed at all.
data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP...
data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP...
Rutte's numbers are too high. Killed Russian soldiers is closer to 6,000-10,000 per month (still a lot, of course).
🇺🇦Rutte: Let’s not forget that, at the moment, Russians are losing massive numbers of soldiers due to Ukrainian defense.
In a single month, this amounts to 20,000 to 25,000 Russian soldiers killed. I am not talking about those seriously wounded, but about those killed—dead—20,000 to 25,000 a month.
In a single month, this amounts to 20,000 to 25,000 Russian soldiers killed. I am not talking about those seriously wounded, but about those killed—dead—20,000 to 25,000 a month.
January 13, 2026 at 7:39 PM
Rutte's numbers are too high. Killed Russian soldiers is closer to 6,000-10,000 per month (still a lot, of course).
Reposted by Janis Kluge
🧵 1/5 — Let's talk statistics. According to Denys Shmyhal, #Ukraine received 23 long- and medium-range air defence systems, including four MIM-104 Patriot air defence systems, from western partners in 2025.
January 13, 2026 at 5:25 PM
🧵 1/5 — Let's talk statistics. According to Denys Shmyhal, #Ukraine received 23 long- and medium-range air defence systems, including four MIM-104 Patriot air defence systems, from western partners in 2025.
Which economy is more productive - Germany or the US? It seems the answer would be clear, but it's not.
The mood in Germany is so deeply negative, even aggressively pessimistic, that I thought we had fallen behind by a lot. But here are the facts - they surprised me as well:
The mood in Germany is so deeply negative, even aggressively pessimistic, that I thought we had fallen behind by a lot. But here are the facts - they surprised me as well:
January 13, 2026 at 1:39 PM
Which economy is more productive - Germany or the US? It seems the answer would be clear, but it's not.
The mood in Germany is so deeply negative, even aggressively pessimistic, that I thought we had fallen behind by a lot. But here are the facts - they surprised me as well:
The mood in Germany is so deeply negative, even aggressively pessimistic, that I thought we had fallen behind by a lot. But here are the facts - they surprised me as well:
Russian crude production fell quite a bit in December. Sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft are causing problems for Russian exports, and there is no place to store the oil anymore. Let's hope this is not just temporary.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 9, 2026 at 10:41 AM
Russian crude production fell quite a bit in December. Sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft are causing problems for Russian exports, and there is no place to store the oil anymore. Let's hope this is not just temporary.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...