Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de
Russia & Economics
All views private
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin)
Picture: Tamek Kowalski
All views private
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin)
Picture: Tamek Kowalski
PS: Strictly speaking, based on historical averages, the expected deficit is 3.8% of GDP.
December 3, 2025 at 1:41 PM
PS: Strictly speaking, based on historical averages, the expected deficit is 3.8% of GDP.
Russian federal budget execution at the end of November 2025 continues to suggest an additional unplanned overrun of 1% of GDP this year and a deficit closer to 3.5% of GDP than the expected 2.6% of GDP.
December 3, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Russian federal budget execution at the end of November 2025 continues to suggest an additional unplanned overrun of 1% of GDP this year and a deficit closer to 3.5% of GDP than the expected 2.6% of GDP.
Russian oil and gas revenues slightly fell in November (the effects of US sanctions will only show in the coming months).
December 3, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Russian oil and gas revenues slightly fell in November (the effects of US sanctions will only show in the coming months).
Russia published its budget report for Q3 of 2025. Military spending is not slowing down. In Q3, it was 38% higher than last year (3.6 trillion rubles in Q3, 11.9 trillion rubles so far for the year). Good news: Federal recruitment data is back!
November 17, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Russia published its budget report for Q3 of 2025. Military spending is not slowing down. In Q3, it was 38% higher than last year (3.6 trillion rubles in Q3, 11.9 trillion rubles so far for the year). Good news: Federal recruitment data is back!
Several Russian regions increasing their sign-on bonuses this week:
Krasnoyarsk: 1.7 --> 3.1 million
3.1 million is a new all time high 📈
Ryazan: 1.0 --> 2.0 million
Oryol: 0.4 --> 0.9 million
Federal/municipal/company bonuses not included.
Krasnoyarsk: 1.7 --> 3.1 million
3.1 million is a new all time high 📈
Ryazan: 1.0 --> 2.0 million
Oryol: 0.4 --> 0.9 million
Federal/municipal/company bonuses not included.
November 15, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Several Russian regions increasing their sign-on bonuses this week:
Krasnoyarsk: 1.7 --> 3.1 million
3.1 million is a new all time high 📈
Ryazan: 1.0 --> 2.0 million
Oryol: 0.4 --> 0.9 million
Federal/municipal/company bonuses not included.
Krasnoyarsk: 1.7 --> 3.1 million
3.1 million is a new all time high 📈
Ryazan: 1.0 --> 2.0 million
Oryol: 0.4 --> 0.9 million
Federal/municipal/company bonuses not included.
Here's another way to illustrate why Russia's budget plan for 2025 is unrealistic:
To stay within the spending plan, Russia would have to fit the light and dark blue parts (November and December) into the red box (the remaining budget this year).
Read more: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-un...
To stay within the spending plan, Russia would have to fit the light and dark blue parts (November and December) into the red box (the remaining budget this year).
Read more: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-un...
November 12, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Here's another way to illustrate why Russia's budget plan for 2025 is unrealistic:
To stay within the spending plan, Russia would have to fit the light and dark blue parts (November and December) into the red box (the remaining budget this year).
Read more: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-un...
To stay within the spending plan, Russia would have to fit the light and dark blue parts (November and December) into the red box (the remaining budget this year).
Read more: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-un...
Russia's latest budget figures (January–October) are out, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the budget deficit will be higher than expected. After 10 months, 80% of the budget has already been spent — compared to the normal rate of 74%.
November 11, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Russia's latest budget figures (January–October) are out, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the budget deficit will be higher than expected. After 10 months, 80% of the budget has already been spent — compared to the normal rate of 74%.
According to regional budget data, Russia continues to recruit approximately 30,000 men per month. This may explain why Russia is willing to lose thousands of soldiers each month in its assault on Ukraine, essentially treating its soldiers as "living munitions."
November 11, 2025 at 11:00 AM
According to regional budget data, Russia continues to recruit approximately 30,000 men per month. This may explain why Russia is willing to lose thousands of soldiers each month in its assault on Ukraine, essentially treating its soldiers as "living munitions."
Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.
November 7, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.
Russia's budget deficit will be even larger this year and could reach 3.5% of GDP. The recent budget correction assumes 42.8 trillion RUB expenditure, but Q4 would have to be historically frugal to achieve that target. After Q3, already 72% of the plan was spent. 66% is normal.
November 1, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Russia's budget deficit will be even larger this year and could reach 3.5% of GDP. The recent budget correction assumes 42.8 trillion RUB expenditure, but Q4 would have to be historically frugal to achieve that target. After Q3, already 72% of the plan was spent. 66% is normal.
I don't understand why Bluesky still won't allow me to create my own private feeds or lists. It just doesn't make sense, and is maybe the most important weakness that keeps me from coming here more often. I don't want to have economics, Ukraine frontline and US politics in the same feed. It's chaos.
October 31, 2025 at 10:20 AM
I don't understand why Bluesky still won't allow me to create my own private feeds or lists. It just doesn't make sense, and is maybe the most important weakness that keeps me from coming here more often. I don't want to have economics, Ukraine frontline and US politics in the same feed. It's chaos.
"Die Funktion der Diplomatie ist das Fixieren von Ergebnissen, die im Theater des Krieges erreicht wurden."
So der russische Regime-Denker Dmitri Trenin. Das sollten sich die deutschen Putin-Versteher mal zu Gemüte führen. Auch sonst ein interessanter Text: www.kommersant.ru/doc/8158919
So der russische Regime-Denker Dmitri Trenin. Das sollten sich die deutschen Putin-Versteher mal zu Gemüte führen. Auch sonst ein interessanter Text: www.kommersant.ru/doc/8158919
Виртуальное катание на американских горках
Дмитрий Тренин — о тактике и стратегии Дональда Трампа
www.kommersant.ru
October 29, 2025 at 1:47 PM
"Die Funktion der Diplomatie ist das Fixieren von Ergebnissen, die im Theater des Krieges erreicht wurden."
So der russische Regime-Denker Dmitri Trenin. Das sollten sich die deutschen Putin-Versteher mal zu Gemüte führen. Auch sonst ein interessanter Text: www.kommersant.ru/doc/8158919
So der russische Regime-Denker Dmitri Trenin. Das sollten sich die deutschen Putin-Versteher mal zu Gemüte führen. Auch sonst ein interessanter Text: www.kommersant.ru/doc/8158919
Reposted by Janis Kluge
Die Sanktionen von Trump und der EU wirken - aber sie werden kaum die russische Wirtschaft kurzfristig in den Crash treiben oder Putin dazu bringen, seinen Angriffskrieg zu beenden. So meine Kurz-Version des Deep-Dives mit
@jakluge.de
👇 www.ardaudiothek.de/episode/urn:...
@jakluge.de
👇 www.ardaudiothek.de/episode/urn:...
Podcast: Janis Kluge: Warum Sanktionen wirken - aber den Krieg nicht stoppen
Kai Küstner spricht mit Wirtschaftswissenschaftler und Politologe der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik Janis Kluge über die US-Sanktionen. Erstmals stehen Russlands größte Energiekonzerne Lukoil und ...
www.ardaudiothek.de
October 28, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Die Sanktionen von Trump und der EU wirken - aber sie werden kaum die russische Wirtschaft kurzfristig in den Crash treiben oder Putin dazu bringen, seinen Angriffskrieg zu beenden. So meine Kurz-Version des Deep-Dives mit
@jakluge.de
👇 www.ardaudiothek.de/episode/urn:...
@jakluge.de
👇 www.ardaudiothek.de/episode/urn:...
Another explanation for the stronger ruble: Some of Russia's oil taxes are paid quarterly, with the next round due at the end of the month. Russian oil exporters are exchanging export revenues into rubles to pay for these taxes.
October 28, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Another explanation for the stronger ruble: Some of Russia's oil taxes are paid quarterly, with the next round due at the end of the month. Russian oil exporters are exchanging export revenues into rubles to pay for these taxes.
The ruble is strengthening at the moment. It also strengthened after the US sanctioned Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft in January. One explanation is that Rosneft and Lukoil are transferring cash into Russia to protect it from being frozen.
October 28, 2025 at 10:04 AM
The ruble is strengthening at the moment. It also strengthened after the US sanctioned Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft in January. One explanation is that Rosneft and Lukoil are transferring cash into Russia to protect it from being frozen.
Estimating Russian military spending as of 31.8.2025:
Step 1/2
Federal budget totals (bn RUB)
27,920 total spending
- 20,160 open spending
-------------------------
7,760 classified spending
====================
Step 1/2
Federal budget totals (bn RUB)
27,920 total spending
- 20,160 open spending
-------------------------
7,760 classified spending
====================
October 27, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Estimating Russian military spending as of 31.8.2025:
Step 1/2
Federal budget totals (bn RUB)
27,920 total spending
- 20,160 open spending
-------------------------
7,760 classified spending
====================
Step 1/2
Federal budget totals (bn RUB)
27,920 total spending
- 20,160 open spending
-------------------------
7,760 classified spending
====================
Reposted by Janis Kluge
»Die russische Wirtschaft war berauscht von den Militärausgaben, und jetzt kommt der Kater«, sagt @jakluge.de im Interview mit @faznet.bsky.social (Paywall). 👇
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
Neue Wirtschaftslage: „Russland ist nicht mehr in der Komfortzone“
Die neuen Sanktionen werden die Wirtschaft nicht dramatisch treffen, sagt der Russland-Fachmann Janis Kluge. Doch die Lage im Land habe sich gewandelt: Reserven sind erschöpft, es droht die Rezession....
www.faz.net
October 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
»Die russische Wirtschaft war berauscht von den Militärausgaben, und jetzt kommt der Kater«, sagt @jakluge.de im Interview mit @faznet.bsky.social (Paywall). 👇
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
Reposted by Janis Kluge
"The new sanctions will not have a dramatic impact on the economy, says Russia expert @jakluge.de . But the situation in the country has changed: Reserves are exhausted, there is a threat of recession. People are facing tougher times."
🎁 link
🎁 link
Neue Wirtschaftslage: „Russland ist nicht mehr in der Komfortzone“
Die neuen Sanktionen werden die Wirtschaft nicht dramatisch treffen, sagt der Russland-Fachmann Janis Kluge. Doch die Lage im Land habe sich gewandelt: Reserven sind erschöpft, es droht die Rezession....
www.faz.net
October 24, 2025 at 8:43 AM
"The new sanctions will not have a dramatic impact on the economy, says Russia expert @jakluge.de . But the situation in the country has changed: Reserves are exhausted, there is a threat of recession. People are facing tougher times."
🎁 link
🎁 link
Reposted by Janis Kluge
Maxim Kireev @zeit.de zu den Ölsanktionen der USA - u.a. mit Einschätzungen von @jakluge.de
(Geschenklink ohne Paywall)
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
(Geschenklink ohne Paywall)
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
US-Sanktionen: Russlands Öl findet immer einen Weg
Die Ölsanktionen der USA treffen die russische Wirtschaft in schwierigen Zeiten. Doch ihre Wirkung könnte schnell verpuffen. Putins echtes Problem liegt woanders.
www.zeit.de
October 24, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Maxim Kireev @zeit.de zu den Ölsanktionen der USA - u.a. mit Einschätzungen von @jakluge.de
(Geschenklink ohne Paywall)
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
(Geschenklink ohne Paywall)
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
Russian gasoline prices: Still rising, but not as fast anymore. Gasoline prices are heavily regulated, so it's not clear if this means that the crisis is over.
October 23, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Russian gasoline prices: Still rising, but not as fast anymore. Gasoline prices are heavily regulated, so it's not clear if this means that the crisis is over.
Good morning Bulgaria and Romania!
October 23, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Good morning Bulgaria and Romania!
I was never so happy to say that I was wrong: Trump actually did it. He imposed new sanctions on Russia.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
October 22, 2025 at 9:20 PM
I was never so happy to say that I was wrong: Trump actually did it. He imposed new sanctions on Russia.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
Reposted by Janis Kluge
Wie wirken Krieg und Sanktionen auf Russlands Wirtschaft, und welche Effekte haben die ukrainischen Angriffe auf Öl-Raffinerien und -depots? Ein Gespräch mit @jakluge.de
www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...
www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...
Benzinkrise lässt Putin machtlos erscheinen
Die Auswirkungen der Angriffe auf Raffinerien und Öldepots spürten die Russen im Alltag – an den Tankstellen und bei der Inflation, analysiert SWP-Russlandexperte Janis Kluge.
www.zdf.de
October 16, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Wie wirken Krieg und Sanktionen auf Russlands Wirtschaft, und welche Effekte haben die ukrainischen Angriffe auf Öl-Raffinerien und -depots? Ein Gespräch mit @jakluge.de
www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...
www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...
Russia's retail gasoline prices are rising at the highest pace since the start of the fullscale war. The accumulated price increase is also the highest. The 2023 price increase was not a scarcity like 2025, but a reduction in subsidies (you can see when the policy was reversed).
October 16, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Russia's retail gasoline prices are rising at the highest pace since the start of the fullscale war. The accumulated price increase is also the highest. The 2023 price increase was not a scarcity like 2025, but a reduction in subsidies (you can see when the policy was reversed).
How many Russian soldiers have died in the war against Ukraine? I made my own estimate based on regional budget data. The results are very close to those of Mediazona's "200" project, even though they use an entirely different data source.
October 15, 2025 at 3:53 PM
How many Russian soldiers have died in the war against Ukraine? I made my own estimate based on regional budget data. The results are very close to those of Mediazona's "200" project, even though they use an entirely different data source.