@leoskyview.bsky.social
Pinned
1\ I asked what the trend in Russian:Ukraine KIA ratio would look like if major open source databases + the new Frontelligence assessment were correct. They imply under 1:1 at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but about 5.3:1 in late 2024.
groktown.substack.com/p/open-sourc...
groktown.substack.com/p/open-sourc...
Reposted
A new video from @CovertCabal and @Jonpy99 about Russia pulling a lot of old tanks from storage
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_Ft...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_Ft...
Russia Has Began a MASSIVE withdraw of ancient T-72 Ural and A variant tanks
YouTube video by Covert Cabal
www.youtube.com
November 22, 2025 at 6:36 PM
A new video from @CovertCabal and @Jonpy99 about Russia pulling a lot of old tanks from storage
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_Ft...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_Ft...
Russia's daily expenses so far in Nov vs last year.
- 2024 Nov = 105m rub/day
- 2025 Nov 1-20th = 89m rub/day
Over 15% cuts vs 2024 - helping their budget.
Daily expenses are "lumpy", & there can be big end-of-month payments. Upcoming bond payments will also add 3-4m/day to the average.
- 2024 Nov = 105m rub/day
- 2025 Nov 1-20th = 89m rub/day
Over 15% cuts vs 2024 - helping their budget.
Daily expenses are "lumpy", & there can be big end-of-month payments. Upcoming bond payments will also add 3-4m/day to the average.
The electronic budget system shows a 5.82 trillion ruble deficit as of 20 November 2025
November 22, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Russia's daily expenses so far in Nov vs last year.
- 2024 Nov = 105m rub/day
- 2025 Nov 1-20th = 89m rub/day
Over 15% cuts vs 2024 - helping their budget.
Daily expenses are "lumpy", & there can be big end-of-month payments. Upcoming bond payments will also add 3-4m/day to the average.
- 2024 Nov = 105m rub/day
- 2025 Nov 1-20th = 89m rub/day
Over 15% cuts vs 2024 - helping their budget.
Daily expenses are "lumpy", & there can be big end-of-month payments. Upcoming bond payments will also add 3-4m/day to the average.
Reposted
In 2024
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
November 21, 2025 at 11:02 PM
In 2024
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
Reposted
We need to stop calling it a ‘peace plan,’ even with sarcastic quotes around it. Call it the US-Kremlin plan or similar.
‘US-Kremlin plan’ shames the US and makes it sound deeply unappealing to the broader US and European publics.
‘US-Kremlin plan’ shames the US and makes it sound deeply unappealing to the broader US and European publics.
November 21, 2025 at 9:18 PM
We need to stop calling it a ‘peace plan,’ even with sarcastic quotes around it. Call it the US-Kremlin plan or similar.
‘US-Kremlin plan’ shames the US and makes it sound deeply unappealing to the broader US and European publics.
‘US-Kremlin plan’ shames the US and makes it sound deeply unappealing to the broader US and European publics.
1\ Why are the Republicans and Russia trying to force Ukraine to surrender now?
There's a chance it's because Russia knows it cannot finance the war much longer.
The Republicans & Russians could be pushing hard to lock in odds of Ukraine's future extermination before Russia's failure is obvious.
There's a chance it's because Russia knows it cannot finance the war much longer.
The Republicans & Russians could be pushing hard to lock in odds of Ukraine's future extermination before Russia's failure is obvious.
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
1\ Why are the Republicans and Russia trying to force Ukraine to surrender now?
There's a chance it's because Russia knows it cannot finance the war much longer.
The Republicans & Russians could be pushing hard to lock in odds of Ukraine's future extermination before Russia's failure is obvious.
There's a chance it's because Russia knows it cannot finance the war much longer.
The Republicans & Russians could be pushing hard to lock in odds of Ukraine's future extermination before Russia's failure is obvious.
Phillips saw this coming because he spends less time trying to believe what politicians say, and more time watching what they do.
If you don't want to be constantly falling for lies and getting screwed over, it's a good approach IMO.
If you don't want to be constantly falling for lies and getting screwed over, it's a good approach IMO.
Latest piece out in @theatlantic.com . Trump's "peace" plan for Ukraine, which he at this very moment trying to force on the country with threats and intimidation, is grotesque. The US president is admitting what too many refused to admit, he wants Putin to win. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Trump’s Devastating Plan for Ukraine
The White House is giving Putin permission to try again.
www.theatlantic.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Phillips saw this coming because he spends less time trying to believe what politicians say, and more time watching what they do.
If you don't want to be constantly falling for lies and getting screwed over, it's a good approach IMO.
If you don't want to be constantly falling for lies and getting screwed over, it's a good approach IMO.
Donation match up to $2.5k by 30th Nov to registered charity for equipment for Ukraine to dig life-saving protection. Constantine explains how effective this aid is here:
bsky.app/profile/teoy...
Respond below or DM proof, or put "leo" in paypal message. I'll match total donations after 30th...
bsky.app/profile/teoy...
Respond below or DM proof, or put "leo" in paypal message. I'll match total donations after 30th...
1\ Donation match! Post proof of donation by 30th Nov, I'll match up to $2,500.
Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.
Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.
Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
November 21, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Donation match up to $2.5k by 30th Nov to registered charity for equipment for Ukraine to dig life-saving protection. Constantine explains how effective this aid is here:
bsky.app/profile/teoy...
Respond below or DM proof, or put "leo" in paypal message. I'll match total donations after 30th...
bsky.app/profile/teoy...
Respond below or DM proof, or put "leo" in paypal message. I'll match total donations after 30th...
1\ Donation match! Post proof of donation by 30th Nov, I'll match up to $2,500.
Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.
Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.
Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
November 21, 2025 at 4:55 AM
1\ Donation match! Post proof of donation by 30th Nov, I'll match up to $2,500.
Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.
Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.
Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
The details of the Republican-Russian surrender plan for Ukraine look designed to divert Russia's financial path away from catastrophe.
My first guess is that this would save Russian finances and set them up to prepare for their next European invasion. Depending on what happens.
My first guess is that this would save Russian finances and set them up to prepare for their next European invasion. Depending on what happens.
The full leaked text of the proposed US-Russia agreement on Ukraine (translated from Russian):
November 21, 2025 at 1:31 AM
The details of the Republican-Russian surrender plan for Ukraine look designed to divert Russia's financial path away from catastrophe.
My first guess is that this would save Russian finances and set them up to prepare for their next European invasion. Depending on what happens.
My first guess is that this would save Russian finances and set them up to prepare for their next European invasion. Depending on what happens.
Almost 300 Russian war obituaries being found per day by Poteru.
1-18th Nov 2025 is 2nd fastest daily rate, already beat every monthly total from Feb 2022-Oct 2024.
Russia changed reporting rules so a lot of these are deaths from 2024 & early 2025 finally being recorded.
1-18th Nov 2025 is 2nd fastest daily rate, already beat every monthly total from Feb 2022-Oct 2024.
Russia changed reporting rules so a lot of these are deaths from 2024 & early 2025 finally being recorded.
November 20, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Almost 300 Russian war obituaries being found per day by Poteru.
1-18th Nov 2025 is 2nd fastest daily rate, already beat every monthly total from Feb 2022-Oct 2024.
Russia changed reporting rules so a lot of these are deaths from 2024 & early 2025 finally being recorded.
1-18th Nov 2025 is 2nd fastest daily rate, already beat every monthly total from Feb 2022-Oct 2024.
Russia changed reporting rules so a lot of these are deaths from 2024 & early 2025 finally being recorded.
Reposted
Folks! You have managed to gather 75% of a needed sum (3000/4000$). My team and I are very thankful that you find time and efforts to continue supporting us.
And I ask you to do one more step to close our needs. It will help our drone operators to protect themselves.
And I ask you to do one more step to close our needs. It will help our drone operators to protect themselves.
It happens rarely nowadays — to find and strike Russian tanks and IFVs. But we managed to🔥
Nights became longer and our team needs your help to be able to see Russian infantry — 2 thermal imaging.
They are costly: 4000$
PP: [email protected]
WFP: secure.wayforpay.com/donate/Krieg...
Nights became longer and our team needs your help to be able to see Russian infantry — 2 thermal imaging.
They are costly: 4000$
PP: [email protected]
WFP: secure.wayforpay.com/donate/Krieg...
November 20, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Folks! You have managed to gather 75% of a needed sum (3000/4000$). My team and I are very thankful that you find time and efforts to continue supporting us.
And I ask you to do one more step to close our needs. It will help our drone operators to protect themselves.
And I ask you to do one more step to close our needs. It will help our drone operators to protect themselves.
1\ Russia's daily spending so far in Nov is much lower than the final for Nov 2024.
👉Nov 2024 = 105m rub/day
👉1st-14th Nov 2025 = 89m rub/day
Those are the sorts of cuts they need to hit budget goals, but daily spending is variable.
Bond payments + end-of-month spending could push it back up.
👉Nov 2024 = 105m rub/day
👉1st-14th Nov 2025 = 89m rub/day
Those are the sorts of cuts they need to hit budget goals, but daily spending is variable.
Bond payments + end-of-month spending could push it back up.
The electronic budget system shows a 5.39 trillion ruble deficit as of 14 November 2025
November 19, 2025 at 5:07 PM
1\ Russia's daily spending so far in Nov is much lower than the final for Nov 2024.
👉Nov 2024 = 105m rub/day
👉1st-14th Nov 2025 = 89m rub/day
Those are the sorts of cuts they need to hit budget goals, but daily spending is variable.
Bond payments + end-of-month spending could push it back up.
👉Nov 2024 = 105m rub/day
👉1st-14th Nov 2025 = 89m rub/day
Those are the sorts of cuts they need to hit budget goals, but daily spending is variable.
Bond payments + end-of-month spending could push it back up.
Russia borrowing after 2025-11-09 auction+AP
Total proceeds in 2025:
Borrowed = ~6357bn
Goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 5
Amount needed = ~624bn
Needed per week = ~104bn
Proceeds this week = ~124bn
Early Nov auction was huge (and expensive), it put them on target.
Total proceeds in 2025:
Borrowed = ~6357bn
Goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 5
Amount needed = ~624bn
Needed per week = ~104bn
Proceeds this week = ~124bn
Early Nov auction was huge (and expensive), it put them on target.
Russia borrowing after 2025-10-19 auction+AP.
Total proceeds in 2025:
Total borrowed = ~4468bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 7
Amount needed = ~2513bn
Needed per week = ~359bn
Proceeds this week = ~185bn
Yields ~15.3%, vs ~15.1% last week.
Total proceeds in 2025:
Total borrowed = ~4468bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 7
Amount needed = ~2513bn
Needed per week = ~359bn
Proceeds this week = ~185bn
Yields ~15.3%, vs ~15.1% last week.
Russia borrowing update after 2025-10-22 auction+AP.
Total borrowed = ~4284bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 8
Amount needed = ~2697bn
Needed per week = ~337bn
Proceeds this week = ~104bn
Yields ~15.1%, a bit lower than earlier Oct.
Total borrowed = ~4284bn
2025 goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 8
Amount needed = ~2697bn
Needed per week = ~337bn
Proceeds this week = ~104bn
Yields ~15.1%, a bit lower than earlier Oct.
November 19, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Russia borrowing after 2025-11-09 auction+AP
Total proceeds in 2025:
Borrowed = ~6357bn
Goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 5
Amount needed = ~624bn
Needed per week = ~104bn
Proceeds this week = ~124bn
Early Nov auction was huge (and expensive), it put them on target.
Total proceeds in 2025:
Borrowed = ~6357bn
Goal = ~6981bn
Auctions left = 5
Amount needed = ~624bn
Needed per week = ~104bn
Proceeds this week = ~124bn
Early Nov auction was huge (and expensive), it put them on target.
1\ The size of the effect of the new Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions is STILL unclear.
Here are Urals prices which I *think* include insurance and shipping from Trading economics.
Basically at pre-sanction levels.
Here are Urals prices which I *think* include insurance and shipping from Trading economics.
Basically at pre-sanction levels.
November 19, 2025 at 4:29 PM
1\ The size of the effect of the new Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions is STILL unclear.
Here are Urals prices which I *think* include insurance and shipping from Trading economics.
Basically at pre-sanction levels.
Here are Urals prices which I *think* include insurance and shipping from Trading economics.
Basically at pre-sanction levels.
1\ Russia's budget plan implies the following for 2025Q4 vs 2024Q4. Inflation adjusted using Rosstat's 7.7%
👉37% cuts in national defence
👉74% cuts in housing and public utilities
👉59% cuts in social security
👉19% cuts in healthcare
👉16% cuts in education
👉22% cuts in law enforcement
👉37% cuts in national defence
👉74% cuts in housing and public utilities
👉59% cuts in social security
👉19% cuts in healthcare
👉16% cuts in education
👉22% cuts in law enforcement
Russian Federal Budget – Treemap
budget.jakluge.de
November 19, 2025 at 4:32 AM
1\ Russia's budget plan implies the following for 2025Q4 vs 2024Q4. Inflation adjusted using Rosstat's 7.7%
👉37% cuts in national defence
👉74% cuts in housing and public utilities
👉59% cuts in social security
👉19% cuts in healthcare
👉16% cuts in education
👉22% cuts in law enforcement
👉37% cuts in national defence
👉74% cuts in housing and public utilities
👉59% cuts in social security
👉19% cuts in healthcare
👉16% cuts in education
👉22% cuts in law enforcement
No paywall article on Russian oil deliveries and prices. Explains lots of the nuances but notice they often use 4-week averages.
Their data cannot confirm the size of sanctions effects last week. We're finally seeing good signs though.
Their data cannot confirm the size of sanctions effects last week. We're finally seeing good signs though.
Russia's Oil Flows and Prices Deepen Slide in Hit to War Funding
The value of oil shipments from Russian ports fell to the lowest since April 2023
financialpost.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:38 PM
No paywall article on Russian oil deliveries and prices. Explains lots of the nuances but notice they often use 4-week averages.
Their data cannot confirm the size of sanctions effects last week. We're finally seeing good signs though.
Their data cannot confirm the size of sanctions effects last week. We're finally seeing good signs though.
The graph below is what we'd been hoping to see.
Looks like the new sanctions have really hit Urals prices.
Confusing though: Brent was ~$63 so a ~$23 discount should be ~$40/bbl rather than reported $36?
This should hit Russia's oil mineral extraction tax receipts in December.
Looks like the new sanctions have really hit Urals prices.
Confusing though: Brent was ~$63 so a ~$23 discount should be ~$40/bbl rather than reported $36?
This should hit Russia's oil mineral extraction tax receipts in December.
Urals going for $36.61 a barrel is a complete disaster for Russia. That’s the lowest price in 3 years. The average discount is $23.52 a barrel.
Russia’s oil and gas revenues will be sharply lower in December.
oilprice.com/Energy/Crude...
Russia’s oil and gas revenues will be sharply lower in December.
oilprice.com/Energy/Crude...
November 18, 2025 at 9:33 PM
The graph below is what we'd been hoping to see.
Looks like the new sanctions have really hit Urals prices.
Confusing though: Brent was ~$63 so a ~$23 discount should be ~$40/bbl rather than reported $36?
This should hit Russia's oil mineral extraction tax receipts in December.
Looks like the new sanctions have really hit Urals prices.
Confusing though: Brent was ~$63 so a ~$23 discount should be ~$40/bbl rather than reported $36?
This should hit Russia's oil mineral extraction tax receipts in December.
Another day, another Republican stating their support for Russia.
Republicans started blocking aid packages in 2023. That caused massive Ukrainian death and saved Russia's war. Watch to see if they push even harder to reward Russia more for invading.
Republicans started blocking aid packages in 2023. That caused massive Ukrainian death and saved Russia's war. Watch to see if they push even harder to reward Russia more for invading.
Here's something you don't see every day—former Trump admin advisor Steve Cortes takes to @pravda.ua to weigh in on Ukraine's corruption scandal. He also writes that Zelenskyy and Yermak "must reach a reasonable resolution to the war with Russia" or risk losing US support for Ukraine.
This show won’t go on: America can’t trust Zelenskyy
The unfolding corruption scandal compels a reset
www.pravda.com.ua
November 17, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Another day, another Republican stating their support for Russia.
Republicans started blocking aid packages in 2023. That caused massive Ukrainian death and saved Russia's war. Watch to see if they push even harder to reward Russia more for invading.
Republicans started blocking aid packages in 2023. That caused massive Ukrainian death and saved Russia's war. Watch to see if they push even harder to reward Russia more for invading.
1\ Janis Kluge has posted Russia's Jan-Sep 2025 budget spending breakdown, and I think there's evidence supporting @prune602.bsky.social 's data. The numbers agree:
👉 Prune calcs = 2.327tr rub debt coupons paid
👉 Russian budget = 2.324tr rub on debt servicing
Damn close.
Read 🧵 for caveat.
👉 Prune calcs = 2.327tr rub debt coupons paid
👉 Russian budget = 2.324tr rub on debt servicing
Damn close.
Read 🧵 for caveat.
November 17, 2025 at 5:03 PM
1\ Janis Kluge has posted Russia's Jan-Sep 2025 budget spending breakdown, and I think there's evidence supporting @prune602.bsky.social 's data. The numbers agree:
👉 Prune calcs = 2.327tr rub debt coupons paid
👉 Russian budget = 2.324tr rub on debt servicing
Damn close.
Read 🧵 for caveat.
👉 Prune calcs = 2.327tr rub debt coupons paid
👉 Russian budget = 2.324tr rub on debt servicing
Damn close.
Read 🧵 for caveat.
Reposted
Serhii Sternenko is sounding increasingly dire warnings about Ukrainian high command holding onto Pokrovsk at the expense of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro. The situation at the front is dire.
November 15, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Serhii Sternenko is sounding increasingly dire warnings about Ukrainian high command holding onto Pokrovsk at the expense of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro. The situation at the front is dire.
Hopeful news.
The benefits from aid to Ukraine are so enormous that even if 5% of it were wasted by corruption, the security return on investment would hundreds of %.
Ukraine working on cleaning corruption gives us confidence it'll be used even better - we should send much more aid.
The benefits from aid to Ukraine are so enormous that even if 5% of it were wasted by corruption, the security return on investment would hundreds of %.
Ukraine working on cleaning corruption gives us confidence it'll be used even better - we should send much more aid.
November 16, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Hopeful news.
The benefits from aid to Ukraine are so enormous that even if 5% of it were wasted by corruption, the security return on investment would hundreds of %.
Ukraine working on cleaning corruption gives us confidence it'll be used even better - we should send much more aid.
The benefits from aid to Ukraine are so enormous that even if 5% of it were wasted by corruption, the security return on investment would hundreds of %.
Ukraine working on cleaning corruption gives us confidence it'll be used even better - we should send much more aid.
Worth watching what's going on with russian regional budgets.
So far they've hidden war costs off the federal budget by making the regions pay.
So far they've hidden war costs off the federal budget by making the regions pay.
The Russian government will write off 28 billion rubles in debt to the federal budget for 15 Russian regions.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8196241
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8196241
Правительство спишет 15 регионам долги почти на 30 млрд рублей
Подробнее на сайте
www.kommersant.ru
November 14, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Worth watching what's going on with russian regional budgets.
So far they've hidden war costs off the federal budget by making the regions pay.
So far they've hidden war costs off the federal budget by making the regions pay.
Reposted
Another November KAB decline.
Average numbers have dropped from 200 to 100 in a month.
The Weather cant explain this drop.
Average numbers have dropped from 200 to 100 in a month.
The Weather cant explain this drop.
November 14, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Another November KAB decline.
Average numbers have dropped from 200 to 100 in a month.
The Weather cant explain this drop.
Average numbers have dropped from 200 to 100 in a month.
The Weather cant explain this drop.
1\ Ukraine sanctioning Novorossiysk oil port and forcing it to shut down (even temporarily) is pretty funny given 2 months ago Hellenic Shipping News ran a headline "Russia revises up oil export plants from Ust-Luga, Novorossiysk..."
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
November 14, 2025 at 5:07 PM
1\ Ukraine sanctioning Novorossiysk oil port and forcing it to shut down (even temporarily) is pretty funny given 2 months ago Hellenic Shipping News ran a headline "Russia revises up oil export plants from Ust-Luga, Novorossiysk..."
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
1\ A bit about Russia refinancing debt. Yesterday they paid off bond which was at 7.15%/year coupons.
Yesterday they borrowed at ~13.5% coupons due for fixed-rate debt. Their variable rate borrowing should cost even more.
Russia's YET AGAIN piling up future costs to try and keep the war going.
Yesterday they borrowed at ~13.5% coupons due for fixed-rate debt. Their variable rate borrowing should cost even more.
Russia's YET AGAIN piling up future costs to try and keep the war going.
Here is my updated table for the Volumes of Constant Coupon Bonds.
NOTE: PD-26229 is maturing tomorrow, so it will be falling off the table in the next update.
NOTE: PD-26229 is maturing tomorrow, so it will be falling off the table in the next update.
November 13, 2025 at 4:28 PM
1\ A bit about Russia refinancing debt. Yesterday they paid off bond which was at 7.15%/year coupons.
Yesterday they borrowed at ~13.5% coupons due for fixed-rate debt. Their variable rate borrowing should cost even more.
Russia's YET AGAIN piling up future costs to try and keep the war going.
Yesterday they borrowed at ~13.5% coupons due for fixed-rate debt. Their variable rate borrowing should cost even more.
Russia's YET AGAIN piling up future costs to try and keep the war going.