@leoskyview.bsky.social
I couldn't find any docs saying that it had to be used up each year so that's why I was tentative.
Something funky went on in 2022 as well.
Still - I think you're probably right & Russia has lost one of the things that was hiding the severity of their problems.
Something funky went on in 2022 as well.
Still - I think you're probably right & Russia has lost one of the things that was hiding the severity of their problems.
November 23, 2025 at 2:10 AM
I couldn't find any docs saying that it had to be used up each year so that's why I was tentative.
Something funky went on in 2022 as well.
Still - I think you're probably right & Russia has lost one of the things that was hiding the severity of their problems.
Something funky went on in 2022 as well.
Still - I think you're probably right & Russia has lost one of the things that was hiding the severity of their problems.
Do you have a source for the numbers please? I'm interested.
November 23, 2025 at 12:57 AM
Do you have a source for the numbers please? I'm interested.
10\ We'd need to track for changes in gold prices + exchange rates between years to see whether Russia managed to squirrel away extra cash in that account.
There's a chance that it's basically empty now, but I can't be sure.
There's a chance that it's basically empty now, but I can't be sure.
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
10\ We'd need to track for changes in gold prices + exchange rates between years to see whether Russia managed to squirrel away extra cash in that account.
There's a chance that it's basically empty now, but I can't be sure.
There's a chance that it's basically empty now, but I can't be sure.
9\ There was another withdrawal from the special account into the NWF in mid-2025. And they changed their budget to zero out the savings to this account for 2025.
So there's no money going into the account now. But... how much is left?
So there's no money going into the account now. But... how much is left?
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
9\ There was another withdrawal from the special account into the NWF in mid-2025. And they changed their budget to zero out the savings to this account for 2025.
So there's no money going into the account now. But... how much is left?
So there's no money going into the account now. But... how much is left?
8\ If the account was bulging in 2021 and they withdrew "old" cash in 2022, then that's bad. It means that account has a load of extra money in it right now.
But if 2022 was such a panic that they transferred out the 2022 deposits, then we're in a decent position.
But if 2022 was such a panic that they transferred out the 2022 deposits, then we're in a decent position.
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
8\ If the account was bulging in 2021 and they withdrew "old" cash in 2022, then that's bad. It means that account has a load of extra money in it right now.
But if 2022 was such a panic that they transferred out the 2022 deposits, then we're in a decent position.
But if 2022 was such a panic that they transferred out the 2022 deposits, then we're in a decent position.
7\ Now I've highlighted in gold how they saved about 3tr rub extra in 2021, but withdrew a net 3tr rub in 2022.
Looks like with the war they hit the account hard. A big question: was that cash already in there? Or was it the cash that they took in from the high oil&gas prices in 2022?
Looks like with the war they hit the account hard. A big question: was that cash already in there? Or was it the cash that they took in from the high oil&gas prices in 2022?
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
7\ Now I've highlighted in gold how they saved about 3tr rub extra in 2021, but withdrew a net 3tr rub in 2022.
Looks like with the war they hit the account hard. A big question: was that cash already in there? Or was it the cash that they took in from the high oil&gas prices in 2022?
Looks like with the war they hit the account hard. A big question: was that cash already in there? Or was it the cash that they took in from the high oil&gas prices in 2022?
6\ Btw I took the numbers from the Treasury chapter of Annex 6 of the Russian consolidated budget law for each year.
Here's a screenshot of the original Russian and English translation showing the 2022 numbers.
I can't find hte same lines for 2016/2017 so maybe accounting changed?
Here's a screenshot of the original Russian and English translation showing the 2022 numbers.
I can't find hte same lines for 2016/2017 so maybe accounting changed?
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
6\ Btw I took the numbers from the Treasury chapter of Annex 6 of the Russian consolidated budget law for each year.
Here's a screenshot of the original Russian and English translation showing the 2022 numbers.
I can't find hte same lines for 2016/2017 so maybe accounting changed?
Here's a screenshot of the original Russian and English translation showing the 2022 numbers.
I can't find hte same lines for 2016/2017 so maybe accounting changed?
5\ If they spent 4.3tr rub on gold, and then the gold price goes up, by 7%, the gold is worth 4.6tr when it's later withdrawn and deposited into the NWF.
The data I'm using has two additional lines for exchange rate adjustments, but I don't fully understand them so can't be sure.
The data I'm using has two additional lines for exchange rate adjustments, but I don't fully understand them so can't be sure.
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
5\ If they spent 4.3tr rub on gold, and then the gold price goes up, by 7%, the gold is worth 4.6tr when it's later withdrawn and deposited into the NWF.
The data I'm using has two additional lines for exchange rate adjustments, but I don't fully understand them so can't be sure.
The data I'm using has two additional lines for exchange rate adjustments, but I don't fully understand them so can't be sure.
4\ You might ask: how could they withdraw 4.6tr of 4.3tr rub?
Either the account had some extra cash in it and/or it's exchange rate changes.
They deposit roubles, then they buy gold + forex (now yuan, previously euros/pounds/yen/yuan), then they deposit gold+forex into the NWF.
Either the account had some extra cash in it and/or it's exchange rate changes.
They deposit roubles, then they buy gold + forex (now yuan, previously euros/pounds/yen/yuan), then they deposit gold+forex into the NWF.
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
4\ You might ask: how could they withdraw 4.6tr of 4.3tr rub?
Either the account had some extra cash in it and/or it's exchange rate changes.
They deposit roubles, then they buy gold + forex (now yuan, previously euros/pounds/yen/yuan), then they deposit gold+forex into the NWF.
Either the account had some extra cash in it and/or it's exchange rate changes.
They deposit roubles, then they buy gold + forex (now yuan, previously euros/pounds/yen/yuan), then they deposit gold+forex into the NWF.
3\ Here are the data again. Notice the light blue and pink boxes that are offset.
Looks a bit like:
👉2018 deposit 6tr rub
👉2019 withdraw last year's 6tr rub, refill with 4.3tr rub
👉2020 withdraw last year's but now it's 4.6tr rub
And then it goes crazy. COVID + war?
Looks a bit like:
👉2018 deposit 6tr rub
👉2019 withdraw last year's 6tr rub, refill with 4.3tr rub
👉2020 withdraw last year's but now it's 4.6tr rub
And then it goes crazy. COVID + war?
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
3\ Here are the data again. Notice the light blue and pink boxes that are offset.
Looks a bit like:
👉2018 deposit 6tr rub
👉2019 withdraw last year's 6tr rub, refill with 4.3tr rub
👉2020 withdraw last year's but now it's 4.6tr rub
And then it goes crazy. COVID + war?
Looks a bit like:
👉2018 deposit 6tr rub
👉2019 withdraw last year's 6tr rub, refill with 4.3tr rub
👉2020 withdraw last year's but now it's 4.6tr rub
And then it goes crazy. COVID + war?
2\ Here's a crappy diagram to show what I think happens. Each year the "special account" might receive money (green circle) and/or deposit money into the wealth fund (NWF, yellow circle).
I want to know how much is left in the bottom ???? circle. That's cash Russia can use for the war.
I want to know how much is left in the bottom ???? circle. That's cash Russia can use for the war.
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
2\ Here's a crappy diagram to show what I think happens. Each year the "special account" might receive money (green circle) and/or deposit money into the wealth fund (NWF, yellow circle).
I want to know how much is left in the bottom ???? circle. That's cash Russia can use for the war.
I want to know how much is left in the bottom ???? circle. That's cash Russia can use for the war.
Do you have a source showing the financial support please? Specifically for China and the amounts we're talking.
November 23, 2025 at 12:07 AM
Do you have a source showing the financial support please? Specifically for China and the amounts we're talking.
Here are bond costs from Prune for earlier and my estimate for 19th Nov.
Roughly 68m rub paid 1-20th = 3.4m/day.
Monthly total will be 210m or 7m/day.
We want Russian expenses to grow quickly over 21-30th. Based on Sep/Oct they have managed to either cut expenses, or somehow hide expenses.
Roughly 68m rub paid 1-20th = 3.4m/day.
Monthly total will be 210m or 7m/day.
We want Russian expenses to grow quickly over 21-30th. Based on Sep/Oct they have managed to either cut expenses, or somehow hide expenses.
November 22, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Here are bond costs from Prune for earlier and my estimate for 19th Nov.
Roughly 68m rub paid 1-20th = 3.4m/day.
Monthly total will be 210m or 7m/day.
We want Russian expenses to grow quickly over 21-30th. Based on Sep/Oct they have managed to either cut expenses, or somehow hide expenses.
Roughly 68m rub paid 1-20th = 3.4m/day.
Monthly total will be 210m or 7m/day.
We want Russian expenses to grow quickly over 21-30th. Based on Sep/Oct they have managed to either cut expenses, or somehow hide expenses.
Do you have a source on the Chinese funding?
November 22, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Do you have a source on the Chinese funding?
Reposted
In 2024
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
November 21, 2025 at 11:02 PM
In 2024
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
Winter: 245km2
Spring: 582km2
Summer: 676km2
Autumn: 1701km2
There were 460K russians in January 2024 and increased to 600K over the year.
22\ Europe has to decide whether it wants to be richer and at peace, or have things be more expensive and prepare for likely future Russian threats and invasions with Ukrainian manpower and industry on Russia's side.
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
22\ Europe has to decide whether it wants to be richer and at peace, or have things be more expensive and prepare for likely future Russian threats and invasions with Ukrainian manpower and industry on Russia's side.
21\ If Republicans are all in on the dictatorship's victory, then we will see them threaten to cut off previously funded aid deliveries and/or intel and things like Starlink.
They might have other considerations in mind, and European countries could choose to use their leverage and push for peace
They might have other considerations in mind, and European countries could choose to use their leverage and push for peace
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
21\ If Republicans are all in on the dictatorship's victory, then we will see them threaten to cut off previously funded aid deliveries and/or intel and things like Starlink.
They might have other considerations in mind, and European countries could choose to use their leverage and push for peace
They might have other considerations in mind, and European countries could choose to use their leverage and push for peace
20\ This pressure looks like the goal Republicans aimed for with their consistent support for Russian war goals, and helping Ukrainians die.
A big question is: how far will Republicans go to try and force the democracy to surrender to the dictatorship?
A big question is: how far will Republicans go to try and force the democracy to surrender to the dictatorship?
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
20\ This pressure looks like the goal Republicans aimed for with their consistent support for Russian war goals, and helping Ukrainians die.
A big question is: how far will Republicans go to try and force the democracy to surrender to the dictatorship?
A big question is: how far will Republicans go to try and force the democracy to surrender to the dictatorship?
19\ at peace, they could cut spending on bonuses/payouts by 2-4tr rub for the same level of military power.
There will be many many other savings like that.
It would flip them from disaster to sustainability. Meanwhile their propaganda will work to undermine support for Ukraine, divide Europe etc
There will be many many other savings like that.
It would flip them from disaster to sustainability. Meanwhile their propaganda will work to undermine support for Ukraine, divide Europe etc
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
19\ at peace, they could cut spending on bonuses/payouts by 2-4tr rub for the same level of military power.
There will be many many other savings like that.
It would flip them from disaster to sustainability. Meanwhile their propaganda will work to undermine support for Ukraine, divide Europe etc
There will be many many other savings like that.
It would flip them from disaster to sustainability. Meanwhile their propaganda will work to undermine support for Ukraine, divide Europe etc
18\ Russia could spend less and rebuild because things are cheaper when you're less desperate.
At peace they probably need 50-100k recruits/yr with 0 deaths. Maybe ~25bn rub/year to maintain or grow the army.
Now? 350-400k recruits&100k+ dead&additional wounded to pay = 2-4tr rub/yr.
At peace they probably need 50-100k recruits/yr with 0 deaths. Maybe ~25bn rub/year to maintain or grow the army.
Now? 350-400k recruits&100k+ dead&additional wounded to pay = 2-4tr rub/yr.
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
18\ Russia could spend less and rebuild because things are cheaper when you're less desperate.
At peace they probably need 50-100k recruits/yr with 0 deaths. Maybe ~25bn rub/year to maintain or grow the army.
Now? 350-400k recruits&100k+ dead&additional wounded to pay = 2-4tr rub/yr.
At peace they probably need 50-100k recruits/yr with 0 deaths. Maybe ~25bn rub/year to maintain or grow the army.
Now? 350-400k recruits&100k+ dead&additional wounded to pay = 2-4tr rub/yr.
17\ the proposed pro-russia war pause would allow spending cuts to save Russia's budget and prevent the snowball of financial collapse. Republicans will then help weaken sanctions; letting Russian oil income rise, and assets be brought back. Russia would be saved and able to rebuild the war machine.
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
17\ the proposed pro-russia war pause would allow spending cuts to save Russia's budget and prevent the snowball of financial collapse. Republicans will then help weaken sanctions; letting Russian oil income rise, and assets be brought back. Russia would be saved and able to rebuild the war machine.