@leoskyview.bsky.social
7\ Now I've highlighted in gold how they saved about 3tr rub extra in 2021, but withdrew a net 3tr rub in 2022.
Looks like with the war they hit the account hard. A big question: was that cash already in there? Or was it the cash that they took in from the high oil&gas prices in 2022?
Looks like with the war they hit the account hard. A big question: was that cash already in there? Or was it the cash that they took in from the high oil&gas prices in 2022?
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
7\ Now I've highlighted in gold how they saved about 3tr rub extra in 2021, but withdrew a net 3tr rub in 2022.
Looks like with the war they hit the account hard. A big question: was that cash already in there? Or was it the cash that they took in from the high oil&gas prices in 2022?
Looks like with the war they hit the account hard. A big question: was that cash already in there? Or was it the cash that they took in from the high oil&gas prices in 2022?
6\ Btw I took the numbers from the Treasury chapter of Annex 6 of the Russian consolidated budget law for each year.
Here's a screenshot of the original Russian and English translation showing the 2022 numbers.
I can't find hte same lines for 2016/2017 so maybe accounting changed?
Here's a screenshot of the original Russian and English translation showing the 2022 numbers.
I can't find hte same lines for 2016/2017 so maybe accounting changed?
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
6\ Btw I took the numbers from the Treasury chapter of Annex 6 of the Russian consolidated budget law for each year.
Here's a screenshot of the original Russian and English translation showing the 2022 numbers.
I can't find hte same lines for 2016/2017 so maybe accounting changed?
Here's a screenshot of the original Russian and English translation showing the 2022 numbers.
I can't find hte same lines for 2016/2017 so maybe accounting changed?
3\ Here are the data again. Notice the light blue and pink boxes that are offset.
Looks a bit like:
👉2018 deposit 6tr rub
👉2019 withdraw last year's 6tr rub, refill with 4.3tr rub
👉2020 withdraw last year's but now it's 4.6tr rub
And then it goes crazy. COVID + war?
Looks a bit like:
👉2018 deposit 6tr rub
👉2019 withdraw last year's 6tr rub, refill with 4.3tr rub
👉2020 withdraw last year's but now it's 4.6tr rub
And then it goes crazy. COVID + war?
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
3\ Here are the data again. Notice the light blue and pink boxes that are offset.
Looks a bit like:
👉2018 deposit 6tr rub
👉2019 withdraw last year's 6tr rub, refill with 4.3tr rub
👉2020 withdraw last year's but now it's 4.6tr rub
And then it goes crazy. COVID + war?
Looks a bit like:
👉2018 deposit 6tr rub
👉2019 withdraw last year's 6tr rub, refill with 4.3tr rub
👉2020 withdraw last year's but now it's 4.6tr rub
And then it goes crazy. COVID + war?
2\ Here's a crappy diagram to show what I think happens. Each year the "special account" might receive money (green circle) and/or deposit money into the wealth fund (NWF, yellow circle).
I want to know how much is left in the bottom ???? circle. That's cash Russia can use for the war.
I want to know how much is left in the bottom ???? circle. That's cash Russia can use for the war.
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
2\ Here's a crappy diagram to show what I think happens. Each year the "special account" might receive money (green circle) and/or deposit money into the wealth fund (NWF, yellow circle).
I want to know how much is left in the bottom ???? circle. That's cash Russia can use for the war.
I want to know how much is left in the bottom ???? circle. That's cash Russia can use for the war.
1\ A while ago, Prune talked about Russia having a special savings account for refilling their National Wealth Fund.
Interpretation is for later but here are some numbers for people to play with and reference later.
Interpretation is for later but here are some numbers for people to play with and reference later.
November 23, 2025 at 12:56 AM
1\ A while ago, Prune talked about Russia having a special savings account for refilling their National Wealth Fund.
Interpretation is for later but here are some numbers for people to play with and reference later.
Interpretation is for later but here are some numbers for people to play with and reference later.
Here are bond costs from Prune for earlier and my estimate for 19th Nov.
Roughly 68m rub paid 1-20th = 3.4m/day.
Monthly total will be 210m or 7m/day.
We want Russian expenses to grow quickly over 21-30th. Based on Sep/Oct they have managed to either cut expenses, or somehow hide expenses.
Roughly 68m rub paid 1-20th = 3.4m/day.
Monthly total will be 210m or 7m/day.
We want Russian expenses to grow quickly over 21-30th. Based on Sep/Oct they have managed to either cut expenses, or somehow hide expenses.
November 22, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Here are bond costs from Prune for earlier and my estimate for 19th Nov.
Roughly 68m rub paid 1-20th = 3.4m/day.
Monthly total will be 210m or 7m/day.
We want Russian expenses to grow quickly over 21-30th. Based on Sep/Oct they have managed to either cut expenses, or somehow hide expenses.
Roughly 68m rub paid 1-20th = 3.4m/day.
Monthly total will be 210m or 7m/day.
We want Russian expenses to grow quickly over 21-30th. Based on Sep/Oct they have managed to either cut expenses, or somehow hide expenses.
Almost 300 Russian war obituaries being found per day by Poteru.
1-18th Nov 2025 is 2nd fastest daily rate, already beat every monthly total from Feb 2022-Oct 2024.
Russia changed reporting rules so a lot of these are deaths from 2024 & early 2025 finally being recorded.
1-18th Nov 2025 is 2nd fastest daily rate, already beat every monthly total from Feb 2022-Oct 2024.
Russia changed reporting rules so a lot of these are deaths from 2024 & early 2025 finally being recorded.
November 20, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Almost 300 Russian war obituaries being found per day by Poteru.
1-18th Nov 2025 is 2nd fastest daily rate, already beat every monthly total from Feb 2022-Oct 2024.
Russia changed reporting rules so a lot of these are deaths from 2024 & early 2025 finally being recorded.
1-18th Nov 2025 is 2nd fastest daily rate, already beat every monthly total from Feb 2022-Oct 2024.
Russia changed reporting rules so a lot of these are deaths from 2024 & early 2025 finally being recorded.
1\ The size of the effect of the new Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions is STILL unclear.
Here are Urals prices which I *think* include insurance and shipping from Trading economics.
Basically at pre-sanction levels.
Here are Urals prices which I *think* include insurance and shipping from Trading economics.
Basically at pre-sanction levels.
November 19, 2025 at 4:29 PM
1\ The size of the effect of the new Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions is STILL unclear.
Here are Urals prices which I *think* include insurance and shipping from Trading economics.
Basically at pre-sanction levels.
Here are Urals prices which I *think* include insurance and shipping from Trading economics.
Basically at pre-sanction levels.
6\ Other "typical" things, but only the unclassified spending. Looks like Q4 Russian budget plan is NOMINAL (pre-inflation):
👉 56% cuts in social security, inc. pensions
👉 12% cuts in healthcare
👉 10% cuts in education
👉 16% cuts in law enforcement
Inflation adjusted in top post.
👉 56% cuts in social security, inc. pensions
👉 12% cuts in healthcare
👉 10% cuts in education
👉 16% cuts in law enforcement
Inflation adjusted in top post.
November 19, 2025 at 4:32 AM
6\ Other "typical" things, but only the unclassified spending. Looks like Q4 Russian budget plan is NOMINAL (pre-inflation):
👉 56% cuts in social security, inc. pensions
👉 12% cuts in healthcare
👉 10% cuts in education
👉 16% cuts in law enforcement
Inflation adjusted in top post.
👉 56% cuts in social security, inc. pensions
👉 12% cuts in healthcare
👉 10% cuts in education
👉 16% cuts in law enforcement
Inflation adjusted in top post.
4\ Finance costs: captured in federal debt maintenance and a lot of mortgages are in "housing & public utilities".
Russia insists it will cut housing + utility spending by 72% versus last year in Q4.
Interest rates are down but not by enough.
I don't think Russia *can* make required savings here
Russia insists it will cut housing + utility spending by 72% versus last year in Q4.
Interest rates are down but not by enough.
I don't think Russia *can* make required savings here
November 19, 2025 at 4:32 AM
4\ Finance costs: captured in federal debt maintenance and a lot of mortgages are in "housing & public utilities".
Russia insists it will cut housing + utility spending by 72% versus last year in Q4.
Interest rates are down but not by enough.
I don't think Russia *can* make required savings here
Russia insists it will cut housing + utility spending by 72% versus last year in Q4.
Interest rates are down but not by enough.
I don't think Russia *can* make required savings here
2\ Russia updated their budget for almost 5x the planned deficit and requires massive spending cuts or surprise high revenues to stop it going higher.
I'll show parts of the public Russian plan. The tables are all NOMINAL roubles, so different from REAL inflation-adjusted in post 1.
I'll show parts of the public Russian plan. The tables are all NOMINAL roubles, so different from REAL inflation-adjusted in post 1.
November 19, 2025 at 4:32 AM
2\ Russia updated their budget for almost 5x the planned deficit and requires massive spending cuts or surprise high revenues to stop it going higher.
I'll show parts of the public Russian plan. The tables are all NOMINAL roubles, so different from REAL inflation-adjusted in post 1.
I'll show parts of the public Russian plan. The tables are all NOMINAL roubles, so different from REAL inflation-adjusted in post 1.
3\ Here's the reporting spending on debt from Janis' tool.
👉 2.324tr rub
Now time for the caveat.
👉 2.324tr rub
Now time for the caveat.
November 17, 2025 at 5:03 PM
3\ Here's the reporting spending on debt from Janis' tool.
👉 2.324tr rub
Now time for the caveat.
👉 2.324tr rub
Now time for the caveat.
1\ Ukraine sanctioning Novorossiysk oil port and forcing it to shut down (even temporarily) is pretty funny given 2 months ago Hellenic Shipping News ran a headline "Russia revises up oil export plants from Ust-Luga, Novorossiysk..."
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
November 14, 2025 at 5:07 PM
1\ Ukraine sanctioning Novorossiysk oil port and forcing it to shut down (even temporarily) is pretty funny given 2 months ago Hellenic Shipping News ran a headline "Russia revises up oil export plants from Ust-Luga, Novorossiysk..."
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
More impressive work by Ukrainian strike forces.
3\ And here are the borrowing terms yesterday. The new OFZ-PD has 12.5% coupons, but they had to offer a bit of a discount.
Annual coupons work out at ~13.5% on each rub borrowed.
The variable rate PK bonds are currently gonna pay out >17% per rub borrowed, but that could decline. They're variable
Annual coupons work out at ~13.5% on each rub borrowed.
The variable rate PK bonds are currently gonna pay out >17% per rub borrowed, but that could decline. They're variable
November 13, 2025 at 4:28 PM
3\ And here are the borrowing terms yesterday. The new OFZ-PD has 12.5% coupons, but they had to offer a bit of a discount.
Annual coupons work out at ~13.5% on each rub borrowed.
The variable rate PK bonds are currently gonna pay out >17% per rub borrowed, but that could decline. They're variable
Annual coupons work out at ~13.5% on each rub borrowed.
The variable rate PK bonds are currently gonna pay out >17% per rub borrowed, but that could decline. They're variable
2\ Here's the info on the bond that matured yesterday.
7.15% coupons per year.
7.15% coupons per year.
November 13, 2025 at 4:28 PM
2\ Here's the info on the bond that matured yesterday.
7.15% coupons per year.
7.15% coupons per year.
1\ Some more evidence that the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions are starting to affect Russian oil prices.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
November 13, 2025 at 3:48 PM
1\ Some more evidence that the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions are starting to affect Russian oil prices.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.
5\ In the BBC article: 62% of those who were missing but are now recognised as dead actually died in 2024. That's a huge fraction, and it means the surge in recognised deaths on Poteru, Gorushko etc is partly from 2024.
Likely plenty from Nov/Dec when Russia made a huge push.
Likely plenty from Nov/Dec when Russia made a huge push.
November 12, 2025 at 3:57 PM
5\ In the BBC article: 62% of those who were missing but are now recognised as dead actually died in 2024. That's a huge fraction, and it means the surge in recognised deaths on Poteru, Gorushko etc is partly from 2024.
Likely plenty from Nov/Dec when Russia made a huge push.
Likely plenty from Nov/Dec when Russia made a huge push.
2\ Mediazona explain part of the surge: it's because Russia changed their rules and are now recognising a lot of those who went missing earlier, they're finally turning up as confirmed dead.
en.zona.media/article/2025...
en.zona.media/article/2025...
November 12, 2025 at 3:57 PM
2\ Mediazona explain part of the surge: it's because Russia changed their rules and are now recognising a lot of those who went missing earlier, they're finally turning up as confirmed dead.
en.zona.media/article/2025...
en.zona.media/article/2025...
1\ @monstars.bsky.social doesn't seem to be posting the updates here, but there's another source of Russian KIA information and it's also showing a surge in recorded Russian deaths.
November 12, 2025 at 3:57 PM
1\ @monstars.bsky.social doesn't seem to be posting the updates here, but there's another source of Russian KIA information and it's also showing a surge in recorded Russian deaths.
4\ Here's the ORIGINAL plan for 2025. Do you see the line at the bottom? They originally planned to save 1.8 trillion roubles this year to deposit into the NWF in 2026.
November 10, 2025 at 4:34 PM
4\ Here's the ORIGINAL plan for 2025. Do you see the line at the bottom? They originally planned to save 1.8 trillion roubles this year to deposit into the NWF in 2026.
8\ The CBR data on overdue mortgages in Russia look exciting, up almost 120% in a year! But the total amount is still pretty small. And total rate is <1% versus U.S. 30-89 days delinquent rates of ~2% last year.
DO NOT assume you can directly compare these numbers.
DO NOT assume you can directly compare these numbers.
November 9, 2025 at 6:37 PM
8\ The CBR data on overdue mortgages in Russia look exciting, up almost 120% in a year! But the total amount is still pretty small. And total rate is <1% versus U.S. 30-89 days delinquent rates of ~2% last year.
DO NOT assume you can directly compare these numbers.
DO NOT assume you can directly compare these numbers.
7\ I'll note that the CBR official debt growth isn't crazy yet. The figure below is NOT inflation adjusted. But now Russia is relying almost entirely on domestic debt for both private and government needs, and government debt demands are soaring.
November 9, 2025 at 6:37 PM
7\ I'll note that the CBR official debt growth isn't crazy yet. The figure below is NOT inflation adjusted. But now Russia is relying almost entirely on domestic debt for both private and government needs, and government debt demands are soaring.
3\ Here's the CBR data on outstanding amount.
👉it surged in 2023 & part of 2024, as Russia used loan spending to grow GDP
👉it levelled off partway through 2024, i.e. old loans were paid off as quickly as new ones were issued. Higher interest rates were probably the ultimate cause.
👉it surged in 2023 & part of 2024, as Russia used loan spending to grow GDP
👉it levelled off partway through 2024, i.e. old loans were paid off as quickly as new ones were issued. Higher interest rates were probably the ultimate cause.
November 9, 2025 at 6:37 PM
3\ Here's the CBR data on outstanding amount.
👉it surged in 2023 & part of 2024, as Russia used loan spending to grow GDP
👉it levelled off partway through 2024, i.e. old loans were paid off as quickly as new ones were issued. Higher interest rates were probably the ultimate cause.
👉it surged in 2023 & part of 2024, as Russia used loan spending to grow GDP
👉it levelled off partway through 2024, i.e. old loans were paid off as quickly as new ones were issued. Higher interest rates were probably the ultimate cause.
2\ From the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) mortgage dashboard. The yellow bars show total volume of mortgages issued monthly, the pink ones are the government-subsidised amounts. ~77% were subsidised in last month of data.
November 9, 2025 at 6:37 PM
2\ From the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) mortgage dashboard. The yellow bars show total volume of mortgages issued monthly, the pink ones are the government-subsidised amounts. ~77% were subsidised in last month of data.
5\ Meanwhile, MARKET oil prices dropped during the period you showed too.
I don't see how sanctions that will restrict market supply should cause the market price to drop.
I don't see how sanctions that will restrict market supply should cause the market price to drop.
November 9, 2025 at 5:20 PM
5\ Meanwhile, MARKET oil prices dropped during the period you showed too.
I don't see how sanctions that will restrict market supply should cause the market price to drop.
I don't see how sanctions that will restrict market supply should cause the market price to drop.