James David Griffiths
@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the British Election Study, Wrexham and Wales fan
In England, the Lib Dems and Greens are absolutely benefiting from the same trend.
The Lib Dems don't really have a big presence in Wales, but the Greens are also growing in Wales (to a lesser extent that Plaid, but more so among the fewer left/British people I think)
The Lib Dems don't really have a big presence in Wales, but the Greens are also growing in Wales (to a lesser extent that Plaid, but more so among the fewer left/British people I think)
December 17, 2025 at 10:02 AM
In England, the Lib Dems and Greens are absolutely benefiting from the same trend.
The Lib Dems don't really have a big presence in Wales, but the Greens are also growing in Wales (to a lesser extent that Plaid, but more so among the fewer left/British people I think)
The Lib Dems don't really have a big presence in Wales, but the Greens are also growing in Wales (to a lesser extent that Plaid, but more so among the fewer left/British people I think)
In short, Labour is on track for a historic loss, but this is happening because of movement *within* Wales's electoral blocs, not *between* them.
Labour's biggest losses are to Plaid Cymru, not Reform (who are growing from Tory losses).
Long way to go, but Labour are in a really tough place in 🏴
Labour's biggest losses are to Plaid Cymru, not Reform (who are growing from Tory losses).
Long way to go, but Labour are in a really tough place in 🏴
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
In short, Labour is on track for a historic loss, but this is happening because of movement *within* Wales's electoral blocs, not *between* them.
Labour's biggest losses are to Plaid Cymru, not Reform (who are growing from Tory losses).
Long way to go, but Labour are in a really tough place in 🏴
Labour's biggest losses are to Plaid Cymru, not Reform (who are growing from Tory losses).
Long way to go, but Labour are in a really tough place in 🏴
The most common reasons that Lab > Plaid switchers give for their switch concern the ability to stand up for Wales and beating Reform.
Labour’s strategy has alienated its core voters, and unlike at UK level it can’t rely on “stop Reform” messaging: many now see Plaid as the better option for that.
Labour’s strategy has alienated its core voters, and unlike at UK level it can’t rely on “stop Reform” messaging: many now see Plaid as the better option for that.
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
The most common reasons that Lab > Plaid switchers give for their switch concern the ability to stand up for Wales and beating Reform.
Labour’s strategy has alienated its core voters, and unlike at UK level it can’t rely on “stop Reform” messaging: many now see Plaid as the better option for that.
Labour’s strategy has alienated its core voters, and unlike at UK level it can’t rely on “stop Reform” messaging: many now see Plaid as the better option for that.
Similarly, Reform UK has consolidated the British/right vote
Reform's rise is at the expense of the Conservatives, not Labour!
These trends are similar to the rest of GB, as Labour are mostly losing voters on their left flank - what's specific to Wales is that Plaid is now seen as the best option
Reform's rise is at the expense of the Conservatives, not Labour!
These trends are similar to the rest of GB, as Labour are mostly losing voters on their left flank - what's specific to Wales is that Plaid is now seen as the best option
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Similarly, Reform UK has consolidated the British/right vote
Reform's rise is at the expense of the Conservatives, not Labour!
These trends are similar to the rest of GB, as Labour are mostly losing voters on their left flank - what's specific to Wales is that Plaid is now seen as the best option
Reform's rise is at the expense of the Conservatives, not Labour!
These trends are similar to the rest of GB, as Labour are mostly losing voters on their left flank - what's specific to Wales is that Plaid is now seen as the best option
Welsh elections have long been structured into a Welsh/left bloc and a British/right bloc.
Despite the huge changes in 2021, most switching is within (not between) blocs
Labour previously got the most support from the Welsh/left, but since 2025 they've lost lots of these voters to Plaid Cymru.
Despite the huge changes in 2021, most switching is within (not between) blocs
Labour previously got the most support from the Welsh/left, but since 2025 they've lost lots of these voters to Plaid Cymru.
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Welsh elections have long been structured into a Welsh/left bloc and a British/right bloc.
Despite the huge changes in 2021, most switching is within (not between) blocs
Labour previously got the most support from the Welsh/left, but since 2025 they've lost lots of these voters to Plaid Cymru.
Despite the huge changes in 2021, most switching is within (not between) blocs
Labour previously got the most support from the Welsh/left, but since 2025 they've lost lots of these voters to Plaid Cymru.
I reckon you'll qualify out of that group. So envious of you being able to sit back and plan your trip, rather than having to wait until March for a slight hope...
December 5, 2025 at 8:19 PM
I reckon you'll qualify out of that group. So envious of you being able to sit back and plan your trip, rather than having to wait until March for a slight hope...
Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!
November 30, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!
Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!
November 30, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!