James David Griffiths
@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the British Election Study, Wrexham and Wales fan
Pinned
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
🚨New article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social🚨
New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of:
1) bottom-up public demand
2) elites are neglecting it
3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it
tinyurl.com/44ryyybc
🧵
New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of:
1) bottom-up public demand
2) elites are neglecting it
3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it
tinyurl.com/44ryyybc
🧵
January 19, 2026 at 9:28 AM
🚨New article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social🚨
New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of:
1) bottom-up public demand
2) elites are neglecting it
3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it
tinyurl.com/44ryyybc
🧵
New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of:
1) bottom-up public demand
2) elites are neglecting it
3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it
tinyurl.com/44ryyybc
🧵
Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs!
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList
Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.
labourlist.org
January 14, 2026 at 7:53 PM
Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs!
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Reform are still toxic to many voters in 🏴. Too right-wing for most Labour voters, too British for most SNP voters
That leaves them just taking votes off Tories, who already get fewer votes in 🏴 than 🏴 or 🏴
Scotland isn't a "no-go" zone, but Reform's voters will mostly be from the British/Right
That leaves them just taking votes off Tories, who already get fewer votes in 🏴 than 🏴 or 🏴
Scotland isn't a "no-go" zone, but Reform's voters will mostly be from the British/Right
David Cowling on the idea that Scotland will be a “no-go” area for populist parties such as Reform docs.google.com/document/d/1...
December 29, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Reform are still toxic to many voters in 🏴. Too right-wing for most Labour voters, too British for most SNP voters
That leaves them just taking votes off Tories, who already get fewer votes in 🏴 than 🏴 or 🏴
Scotland isn't a "no-go" zone, but Reform's voters will mostly be from the British/Right
That leaves them just taking votes off Tories, who already get fewer votes in 🏴 than 🏴 or 🏴
Scotland isn't a "no-go" zone, but Reform's voters will mostly be from the British/Right
Reposted by James David Griffiths
This graph from @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social et al's paper (free to read!) academic.oup.com/pa/article/7... - shows within bloc switching was higher than across bloc switching in 2015, 2017 and 2024:
December 29, 2025 at 11:49 AM
This graph from @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social et al's paper (free to read!) academic.oup.com/pa/article/7... - shows within bloc switching was higher than across bloc switching in 2015, 2017 and 2024:
Reposted by James David Griffiths
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
December 17, 2025 at 11:38 AM
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Reposted by James David Griffiths
For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...
December 17, 2025 at 9:24 AM
For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Right let's breakdown this new poll for Wales because there is a lot going on below the headline figures.
[Thread]
[Thread]
December 17, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Right let's breakdown this new poll for Wales because there is a lot going on below the headline figures.
[Thread]
[Thread]
Reposted by James David Griffiths
👇👇Upcoming Senedd elections look set to break the mould of Welsh party politics and rock UK Labour. To understand the ‘made in Wales’ and UK influences on this ‘within bloc’ realignment read @jaclarner.bsky.social & @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social 👇👇
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 7:35 AM
👇👇Upcoming Senedd elections look set to break the mould of Welsh party politics and rock UK Labour. To understand the ‘made in Wales’ and UK influences on this ‘within bloc’ realignment read @jaclarner.bsky.social & @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social 👇👇
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Are Reform at their ceiling?
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
December 12, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Are Reform at their ceiling?
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
Britain’s Quiet Electoral Earthquake - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
December 10, 2025 at 2:52 PM
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
🚨New article🚨 What do people want from political leaders in times of crisis, and are those preferences gendered?
Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social
Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social
Bluesky
e.bsky.social
December 1, 2025 at 11:00 AM
🚨New article🚨 What do people want from political leaders in times of crisis, and are those preferences gendered?
Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social
Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social
Reposted by James David Griffiths
UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me).
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
November 28, 2025 at 9:29 AM
UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me).
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
Reposted by James David Griffiths
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Reposted by James David Griffiths
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
Excellent blog, and equally excellent metaphor, on Caerphilly.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.
New blog
Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future
Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat
Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m
Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future
Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat
Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m
November 5, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Excellent blog, and equally excellent metaphor, on Caerphilly.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.
Reposted by James David Griffiths
NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
The 2024 UK General Election in Wales
That Labour emerged victorious from the 2024 UK General Election in Wales must count among the least surprising political outcomes imaginable. It has, afte
academic.oup.com
October 31, 2025 at 10:13 AM
NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
It's also worth mentioning that Labour tried their *own* poll-like stunt weeks before the Camlas poll, arguably to a much higher degree of publicity than PC - if Hedges is right and the polls were mostly to blame then how much more money would they have to have spent on billboards to make it work?!
October 29, 2025 at 1:32 PM
It's also worth mentioning that Labour tried their *own* poll-like stunt weeks before the Camlas poll, arguably to a much higher degree of publicity than PC - if Hedges is right and the polls were mostly to blame then how much more money would they have to have spent on billboards to make it work?!
"We'd have won if not for those pesky polls"
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
October 29, 2025 at 10:45 AM
"We'd have won if not for those pesky polls"
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
If Labour’s takeaway from Caerphilly is ‘we’d have won but for anti-Reform tactical voting,’ they’re in for a rude awakening in May.
Even if true, how does that narrative help? Voters have a viable alternative, so waiting for them to return doesn't seem a good idea?
labourlist.org/2025/10/wayn...
Even if true, how does that narrative help? Voters have a viable alternative, so waiting for them to return doesn't seem a good idea?
labourlist.org/2025/10/wayn...
October 28, 2025 at 3:06 PM
If Labour’s takeaway from Caerphilly is ‘we’d have won but for anti-Reform tactical voting,’ they’re in for a rude awakening in May.
Even if true, how does that narrative help? Voters have a viable alternative, so waiting for them to return doesn't seem a good idea?
labourlist.org/2025/10/wayn...
Even if true, how does that narrative help? Voters have a viable alternative, so waiting for them to return doesn't seem a good idea?
labourlist.org/2025/10/wayn...
By-elections are always tough for incumbents, but this one (and national polls) show how badly Welsh Labour are struggling.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
Who in my bloc can beat the threat on the other side?
Caerphilly election helps us understand bloc voting and viability.
Voters asking which party in their bloc is best placed to defeat a more disliked party. Viability absolutely critical, given polarisation and fragmentation.
Caerphilly election helps us understand bloc voting and viability.
Voters asking which party in their bloc is best placed to defeat a more disliked party. Viability absolutely critical, given polarisation and fragmentation.
October 24, 2025 at 8:14 AM
By-elections are always tough for incumbents, but this one (and national polls) show how badly Welsh Labour are struggling.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
Some personal news
October 21, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Some personal news
Reposted by James David Griffiths
I've done deep-dive into latest @britishelectionstudy.com wave to explain rise of Reform:
- Who are their voters? (pretty working-class)
- What do they care about? (immigration)
- What do they want? (lower immigration)
- Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance
🧵 of results
- Who are their voters? (pretty working-class)
- What do they care about? (immigration)
- What do they want? (lower immigration)
- Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance
🧵 of results
Who is Voting Reform? And Why?
The who, what, when, how and huh of why Reform has gained so much support in such a short period of time
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
I've done deep-dive into latest @britishelectionstudy.com wave to explain rise of Reform:
- Who are their voters? (pretty working-class)
- What do they care about? (immigration)
- What do they want? (lower immigration)
- Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance
🧵 of results
- Who are their voters? (pretty working-class)
- What do they care about? (immigration)
- What do they want? (lower immigration)
- Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance
🧵 of results
Reposted by James David Griffiths
NEW!
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
September 28, 2025 at 11:06 AM
NEW!
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Every year around this time, I get requests from students doing their Baccalauréat Francais International for help with their projects on sport and soft power.
All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.
All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.
Football as a weapon of soft power: The beautiful game hiding the ugly truth
sites.manchester.ac.uk
September 26, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Every year around this time, I get requests from students doing their Baccalauréat Francais International for help with their projects on sport and soft power.
All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.
All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.