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James David Griffiths

@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social

470 followers 200 following 55 posts

Research Fellow at the British Election Study, Wrexham and Wales fan

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · May 12

🚨NEW PUBLICATION 🚨

Though people have moved on from Brexit, they still vote in line with their Brexit preferences - with age/education still separating voters.

Voters now back party blocs, which matters greatly for Labour's current appeals to Reform voters.

🧵

academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...

The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility: The role of party blocs in the 2024 General Election

Abstract. Brexit accelerated the long-term realignment of how demographic groups vote in Britain. However, Europe is no longer salient to voters, support f

academic.oup.com

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Reposted by James David Griffiths

James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 8d

I've done deep-dive into latest @britishelectionstudy.com wave to explain rise of Reform:

- Who are their voters? (pretty working-class)
- What do they care about? (immigration)
- What do they want? (lower immigration)
- Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance

🧵 of results

Who is Voting Reform? And Why?

The who, what, when, how and huh of why Reform has gained so much support in such a short period of time

jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com

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Reposted by James David Griffiths

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10d

NEW!
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...

Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.

Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk

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Reposted by James David Griffiths

Kenn Rushworth @kennrushworth.bsky.social · 12d

Every year around this time, I get requests from students doing their Baccalauréat Francais International for help with their projects on sport and soft power.

All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.

Football as a weapon of soft power: The beautiful game hiding the ugly truth

sites.manchester.ac.uk

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Reposted by James David Griffiths

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 15d

Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.

Peston @itvpeston.bsky.social · 15d

PESTON LIVE - 22/09/2025 👇

Join ITV’s Flagship Politics show

Tonight Robert Peston and Pippa Crerar will be joined by:

💼 James Murray MP
🔶 @eddavey.libdems.org.uk
🌏 Aaron David Miller
🌹 @bellribeiroaddy.bsky.social
➡️ Maria Caulfield

#Peston

youtube.com/live/P-ku4ly...

Recognition of Palestine | UK’s economic outlook | Reform’s latest immigration policy | ITV Peston

YouTube video by Peston

youtube.com

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 19d

To add to the interest of the Welsh election, there is an expanded Senedd and new electoral system in 2026!

Of wider relevance, polling from Wales suggests what can happen when Labour has a viable alternative on their left flank, given that people are more volatile now.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 19d

Your Party is a story. 'Independents' may do better if Labour continue to be unpopular. But there's an extraordinary left (Plaid) - right (Reform) contest in Wales, a new Green leader a threat to Labour on left among financially insecure, Lib Dems solely speaking to issues of democracy w/ 72 MPs.

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 19d

Now to try and get tickets for Feb...

James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 19d

Infinite Source is also a banger off that album imo

James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 21d

Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy).

That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens.

This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.

Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21d

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

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Reposted by James David Griffiths

Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21d

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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 22d

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters?

Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024:
- How many are still with the party?
- How many have left?
- Why might that be?

TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters?

The who, what, when, how and huh of why Labour has lost so much support in such a short period of time

jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 25d

It is a really good question. I think the honest answer is that we need more data/time to see whether these people are persistent between-bloc swing voters (and what happens when the tactical imperative to coordinate on the left is weaker)

James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 26d

Thank you!

James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 26d

Also, absolutely wild seeing my name mentioned in The Economist... 🤯

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 26d

It was really fun to talk to @matthewholehouse.bsky.social about our paper. Voters now separate political parties into left-liberal and right-conservative blocs, and most of the (extensive) vote switching that we saw in 2024 (and since) is within these blocs. This is really important going forward.

The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 26d

BES Research Fellow @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social has spoken with The Economist about our Parliamentary Affairs paper on how British voters are volatile, but their choices are now structured by party blocs after the Brexit realignment.

Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...

The new battle for Britain

Once elections were fought between left and right. Now the main fight is within these camps

www.economist.com

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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 29d

Whichever councillor in West Oxfordshire compared a solar farm to Aberfan should feel absolutely ashamed of themselves. A completely disgraceful comparison for which they should apologise.

Oxford Clarion @oxfordclarion.bsky.social · 29d

A solar farm that could have powered “all the households in Witney” has been refused permission by West Oxfordshire District Council. Councillors were concerned about the risk of fire, one drawing parallels to the 1966 Aberfan disaster: “Until someone can guarantee it is safe, I can’t support it.”

The proposed site of the Witney Solar Farm

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Reposted by James David Griffiths

The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 6

🚨DATA RELEASE 🚨

The BES team are pleased to announce the release of Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel.

Please follow the link below, and we look forward to seeing your research!

www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resource...

Release Note: British Election Study Internet Panel Wave 30 - The British Election Study

www.britishelectionstudy.com

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · Sep 3

Slightly older and somewhat lower levels of education than those who've switched to another left-liberal party or stayed with Labour (but there is relatively few of them overall)

James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · Sep 3

No, but in practice people who have positive attitudes towards immigration also tend to have liberal social/cultural values, so that's why we've used that as a proxy

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · Sep 3

I'm pretty sure that none of the evidence backs any of your claims, particularly as the first author (me) is Welsh, but thanks for commenting!

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · Sep 3

We use those terms because voters think of parties like that! If we look at immigration as a proxy for liberal/authoritarian and redistribution as a proxy for left-right, then voters do split parties into a "left AND liberal" bloc and a "right AND conservative" bloc!

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · Sep 3

Our data shows that the Labour > Undecided voters like them (and other left-liberal parties) a lot more than other undecided voters like Labour.

They can try and appeal to those on the right, but I think it feels like an uphill battle?

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · Sep 3

Hopefully very soon!

Reposted by James David Griffiths

Will Jennings 🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · Sep 3

Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.

The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 3

Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens).

Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).

These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw

Alluvial plot showing the flow of support from vote in the 2024 UK General Election to vote intention in 2025 Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel.

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · Sep 3

Might be of interest to @psurridge.bsky.social @profsob.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social @paulbrand.bsky.social @luketryl.bsky.social @anandmenon.bsky.social @markpackuk.bsky.social @ailsahenderson.bsky.social

(Apologies for the cold tag!)

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · Sep 3

Interested in Labour's lost voters since the 2024 UK GE?

Want to get a sneak peak at some of the results from wave 30 of the BESIP before it is released?

Then we have a new blog for you! 👇👇

The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 3

🚨New Research 🚨

Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE.

Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters.

🧵⬇️

tinyurl.com/3m62exph

Looking for Labour’s lost voters - The British Election Study

www.britishelectionstudy.com

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