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Reposted by The British Election Study

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 15d

Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.

Peston @itvpeston.bsky.social · 15d

PESTON LIVE - 22/09/2025 👇

Join ITV’s Flagship Politics show

Tonight Robert Peston and Pippa Crerar will be joined by:

💼 James Murray MP
🔶 @eddavey.libdems.org.uk
🌏 Aaron David Miller
🌹 @bellribeiroaddy.bsky.social
➡️ Maria Caulfield

#Peston

youtube.com/live/P-ku4ly...

Recognition of Palestine | UK’s economic outlook | Reform’s latest immigration policy | ITV Peston

YouTube video by Peston

youtube.com

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 25d

You can read our paper here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...

You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...

academic.oup.com

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 25d

The Economist's piece also references work by @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social on tactical voting in 2024, and a paper that includes BES team member @jack-bailey.co.uk on Keir Starmer's "Island of Strangers" speech.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 25d

BES Research Fellow @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social has spoken with The Economist about our Parliamentary Affairs paper on how British voters are volatile, but their choices are now structured by party blocs after the Brexit realignment.

Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...

The new battle for Britain

Once elections were fought between left and right. Now the main fight is within these camps

www.economist.com

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 6

🚨DATA RELEASE 🚨

The BES team are pleased to announce the release of Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel.

Please follow the link below, and we look forward to seeing your research!

www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resource...

Release Note: British Election Study Internet Panel Wave 30 - The British Election Study

www.britishelectionstudy.com

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Reposted by The British Election Study

James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · Sep 3

Interested in Labour's lost voters since the 2024 UK GE?

Want to get a sneak peak at some of the results from wave 30 of the BESIP before it is released?

Then we have a new blog for you! 👇👇

The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 3

🚨New Research 🚨

Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE.

Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters.

🧵⬇️

tinyurl.com/3m62exph

Looking for Labour’s lost voters - The British Election Study

www.britishelectionstudy.com

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Reposted by The British Election Study

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · Sep 3

The Brexit realignment is the essential starting point for understanding where Labour's vote is splintering. The largest group is still 'undecided': good news-ish for Labour, but potential for others too.

This shows how large Labour's first year losses are relative to recent comparable governments:

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 3

Labour's slump is significant.

Labour’s vote has splintered between indecision and other left-liberal parties, with its rightward shift yielding little gain.

Labour's main competition for their 2024 voters are other left-liberal parties. They have time to win them back, but a tough path to do it

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 3

One of the big reasons that Labour is losing voters is economy insecurity: tinyurl.com/yywv2mbw

However, the problem for the Labour Party is that their 2024 voters are not convinced by their performance in office.

Graph showing percentage of 2024 Labour voters who thought that Labour would do a good job on the economy, immigration, and the NHS before the election, and the percentage who thought that they have done a good job since. In short, Labour voters are disappointed on all three areas.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 3

Labour's strategy since the election seems designed to appeal to right-conservative voters.

This strategy hasn't worked on its own terms because they have lost the (very few) right-wing voters that they had, while also losing (much) larger numbers of left-wing voters.

Four graphs showing vote intention among 2024 Labour voters by immigration preferences (top-left), defence spending (top-right), taxation preferences (bottom-left), and welfare spending support (bottom-right). In short, each graph shows that Labour has lost a greater number of voters who support a 'left-liberal' position, while also losing the very few 'right-conservative' voters that they had at a higher rate.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 3

Labour also faces more direct competition from left-liberal parties for the voters that they've lost to indecision.

These Lab -> undecided voters like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform UK and the Conservatives.

So, these party blocs matter.

Graph showing how much different types of 2024 Labour voter like each of the major parties in Britain. We look at Labour voters who still support Labour in 2025, Labour voters who moved to indecision, and Labour voters who have moved to a left-liberal party. The biggest finding is that Labour to undecided voters like left-liberal parties like the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Plaid Cymru a lot more than they like Reform or the Conservatives.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 3

Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens).

Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).

These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw

Alluvial plot showing the flow of support from vote in the 2024 UK General Election to vote intention in 2025 Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 3

Labour's support has splintered.

Over 1 in 5 of their 2024 voters are now undecided. Labour could win these back, but there is a risk.

The Conservatives lost a similar amount to indecision after the last 3 elections, and they won most back in 2017 and 2019 (but not 2024).

Alluvial plot showing the flow of support from vote in the 2024 UK General Election to vote intention in the 2025 Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 3

Labour's decline in support is remarkable.

Support for Labour has fallen more sharply after this election than it has for any other winning party covered by the BESIP (though the timings between waves are not identical).

Graph showing the decline in support between a post-election wave and the subsequent wave of the British Election Study Internet Panel, measured by mean like/dislike ratings. The drop in the mean like/dislike ratings for Labour is much larger than that for the Conservatives in 2015, 2017, or 2019.

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 3

🚨New Research 🚨

Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE.

Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters.

🧵⬇️

tinyurl.com/3m62exph

Looking for Labour’s lost voters - The British Election Study

www.britishelectionstudy.com

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Sep 1

🚨NEW DATA 🚨

The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0

You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...

You can find our release note here:
www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...

BES 2024 Random Probability Survey Release Note v1.0.0 - The British Election Study

www.britishelectionstudy.com

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · May 12

New publication by the @britishelectionstudy.com team!

@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social has summarised the main findings in this thread, but you can also find the paper here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...

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Reposted by The British Election Study

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · May 1

This year's Scottish Election Study Annual Lecture, delivered by our outstanding colleague and @britishelectionstudy.com Co-Director @profjanegreen.bsky.social, will take place a week on Monday in Edinburgh! 👩🏼‍🏫

Details and sign up below 🔽

www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/scottish-e...

Scottish Election Study annual lecture 2025

We welcome Professor Jane Green to give the annual lecture for the Scottish Election Study

www.eventbrite.co.uk

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Apr 28

If you're interested in what the local elections mean for the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens, then @profjanegreen.bsky.social has a new explainer for you!

You can read more about it here: tinyurl.com/2s48bbf4

Or you can watch here: youtu.be/T9pKpbECtKk?...

The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Apr 24

Are you interested in the local elections? Do you want to know more about what they mean for Reform UK?

If so, you should watch these explainers by
@profjanegreen.bsky.social

Tips for interpreting the locals: tinyurl.com/28jwpbub

What it means for Reform: tinyurl.com/2sxrzeva

Do Local Elections Matter? - The British Election Study

tinyurl.com

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Reposted by The British Election Study

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · Apr 24

Happy to say the third in this series is now on YouTube and @itvx.com. More soon….

The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Apr 24

Are you interested in the local elections? Do you want to know more about what they mean for Reform UK?

If so, you should watch these explainers by
@profjanegreen.bsky.social

Tips for interpreting the locals: tinyurl.com/28jwpbub

What it means for Reform: tinyurl.com/2sxrzeva

Do Local Elections Matter? - The British Election Study

tinyurl.com

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Apr 24

Are you interested in the local elections? Do you want to know more about what they mean for Reform UK?

If so, you should watch these explainers by
@profjanegreen.bsky.social

Tips for interpreting the locals: tinyurl.com/28jwpbub

What it means for Reform: tinyurl.com/2sxrzeva

Do Local Elections Matter? - The British Election Study

tinyurl.com

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Reposted by The British Election Study

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · Apr 15

We made some pithy explainers for you!

Please watch these short films:

Four tips for interpreting these local elections:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DSb...

Reform Revolution? Four hurdles Reform will still need to overcome:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ZG...

www.itv.com

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Reposted by The British Election Study

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · Apr 15

Reform will make big gains on 1 May. But what will that *MEAN*?

Will it mean they're building momentum, or will these locals last fought in 2021 be mainly catching up with last year's GE?

Will locals and a potential by-election win mean Reform are on track for a big Westminster breakthrough?

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Reposted by The British Election Study

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · Apr 15

With massive thanks to @martamiori.bsky.social, Rosalie Falla, Sadia Islam. A joy to work with. And all at @itvnews.bsky.social @itvnewspolitics.bsky.social for their support.

Data and analysis from @britishelectionstudy.com @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social @nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social

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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · Feb 26

The British Election Study team are happy to announce the release of our results file, which compiles 2024 election results, census data, candidate information, and other contextual data by constituency in Britain.

You can download the results file here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...

2024 BES Constituency Results with Census and Candidate Data - The British Election Study

www.britishelectionstudy.com

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