James Breckwoldt
@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social
Senior Research Analyst @focaldata.bsky.social
https://jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=lMLT7b8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao
https://jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
https://scholar.google.co.uk/citations?user=lMLT7b8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
In anticipation of the Budget, here is my Glazer-era Manchester United theory of Britain's economic decline
Both started out in a great position and then blew it with a serious of bad decisions, whilst ignoring what had made them great before
Both started out in a great position and then blew it with a serious of bad decisions, whilst ignoring what had made them great before
Britain's Economic Decline is Just Like Glazer-Era Manchester United
How to Destroy Your Advantages in 7 Easy Steps
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:27 AM
In anticipation of the Budget, here is my Glazer-era Manchester United theory of Britain's economic decline
Both started out in a great position and then blew it with a serious of bad decisions, whilst ignoring what had made them great before
Both started out in a great position and then blew it with a serious of bad decisions, whilst ignoring what had made them great before
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
November 25, 2025 at 8:38 AM
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
In anticipation of the Budget, here is my Glazer-era Manchester United theory of Britain's economic decline
Both started out in a great position and then blew it with a serious of bad decisions, whilst ignoring what had made them great before
Both started out in a great position and then blew it with a serious of bad decisions, whilst ignoring what had made them great before
Britain's Economic Decline is Just Like Glazer-Era Manchester United
How to Destroy Your Advantages in 7 Easy Steps
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:27 AM
In anticipation of the Budget, here is my Glazer-era Manchester United theory of Britain's economic decline
Both started out in a great position and then blew it with a serious of bad decisions, whilst ignoring what had made them great before
Both started out in a great position and then blew it with a serious of bad decisions, whilst ignoring what had made them great before
Promises, promises, promises
Rhetoric, rhetoric, rhetoric
Blah, blah, blah
Why I think nothing will change if nothing actually changes 👇
Rhetoric, rhetoric, rhetoric
Blah, blah, blah
Why I think nothing will change if nothing actually changes 👇
What Explains the Rise and Rise of Reform UK?
The who, what, when, how and huh of why Reform has gained so much support in such a short period of time
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Promises, promises, promises
Rhetoric, rhetoric, rhetoric
Blah, blah, blah
Why I think nothing will change if nothing actually changes 👇
Rhetoric, rhetoric, rhetoric
Blah, blah, blah
Why I think nothing will change if nothing actually changes 👇
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Seconded (non-paywalled version here: proftimbale.com/tag/vox-pops/)!
November 17, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Seconded (non-paywalled version here: proftimbale.com/tag/vox-pops/)!
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
I wrote this in September and it's holding up better with each passing day
You Can't Govern a Country in the Passive Voice
The case for active voice government is made by me
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 9:29 AM
I wrote this in September and it's holding up better with each passing day
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.
Political Socialisation in the UK: Describing Generational Changes of Values - International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Society
A growing bulk of research examines intergenerational shifts in attitudes and the extent to which they are attributable to new cohorts of voters being socialised under different socioeconomic and cult...
link.springer.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:29 AM
🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
New article from me on importance of charisma and attention seeking in elections
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Political Leaders Need To Be Charismatic Attention-Seekers (And That's a Good Thing)
It ain't no mystery, if it's politics or history. The thing you gotta know is, everything is showbiz!
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:33 AM
New article from me on importance of charisma and attention seeking in elections
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
The re-election path for this govt has always involved betting an early period of unpopular budgets on hopefully delivering the improvements asked for by Labour voters by the next election. The problem is the leadership, and internal critics, favour combos that avoid one side of the equation.
November 11, 2025 at 10:37 PM
The re-election path for this govt has always involved betting an early period of unpopular budgets on hopefully delivering the improvements asked for by Labour voters by the next election. The problem is the leadership, and internal critics, favour combos that avoid one side of the equation.
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Like, you can debate how much Starmer is directly responsible for Labour's current unpopularity, but I can absolutely guarantee that a replacement will also be really unpopular if they don't substantively improve cost of living or public services, which will require politically difficult budgets.
November 11, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Like, you can debate how much Starmer is directly responsible for Labour's current unpopularity, but I can absolutely guarantee that a replacement will also be really unpopular if they don't substantively improve cost of living or public services, which will require politically difficult budgets.
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
If MPs defected at the same rates as their voters, the Commons would look like:
Labour: 212 (-199)
Lib Dems: 110 (+38)
Conservatives: 99 (-22)
Greens: 87 (+83)
Reform UK: 86 (+81)
SNP/PC: 25 (+12)
Others: 31 (+7)
Labour: 212 (-199)
Lib Dems: 110 (+38)
Conservatives: 99 (-22)
Greens: 87 (+83)
Reform UK: 86 (+81)
SNP/PC: 25 (+12)
Others: 31 (+7)
November 12, 2025 at 10:37 AM
If MPs defected at the same rates as their voters, the Commons would look like:
Labour: 212 (-199)
Lib Dems: 110 (+38)
Conservatives: 99 (-22)
Greens: 87 (+83)
Reform UK: 86 (+81)
SNP/PC: 25 (+12)
Others: 31 (+7)
Labour: 212 (-199)
Lib Dems: 110 (+38)
Conservatives: 99 (-22)
Greens: 87 (+83)
Reform UK: 86 (+81)
SNP/PC: 25 (+12)
Others: 31 (+7)
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
TLDR: buy shares in Zack Polanski
Let The Rock explain:
Let The Rock explain:
November 12, 2025 at 7:58 AM
TLDR: buy shares in Zack Polanski
Let The Rock explain:
Let The Rock explain:
TLDR: buy shares in Zack Polanski
Let The Rock explain:
Let The Rock explain:
November 12, 2025 at 7:58 AM
TLDR: buy shares in Zack Polanski
Let The Rock explain:
Let The Rock explain:
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
New article from me on importance of charisma and attention seeking in elections
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Political Leaders Need To Be Charismatic Attention-Seekers (And That's a Good Thing)
It ain't no mystery, if it's politics or history. The thing you gotta know is, everything is showbiz!
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:33 AM
New article from me on importance of charisma and attention seeking in elections
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
Includes:
- A short history of "charisma"
- How different mediums (radio, TV, social media etc.) require different types of charisma
- Why you need to be Everything Everywhere All at Once in today’s political landscape
For more on the strange language that politicians use to describe the average voter that Phil and Armando talk about here, I wrote a short history of the weird and wonderful world of voter segmentation names in September
November 10, 2025 at 11:45 AM
For more on the strange language that politicians use to describe the average voter that Phil and Armando talk about here, I wrote a short history of the weird and wonderful world of voter segmentation names in September
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
While going through the proofs for "The British General Election of 2024" (out very soon!) I came across this - Paul Johnson of the IFS's verdict on Labour's manifesto last year. Labour's current attempts to claim the need to break their tax pledges was impossible to forsee don't stack up
November 10, 2025 at 8:28 AM
While going through the proofs for "The British General Election of 2024" (out very soon!) I came across this - Paul Johnson of the IFS's verdict on Labour's manifesto last year. Labour's current attempts to claim the need to break their tax pledges was impossible to forsee don't stack up
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
I've made the code for the ANES output available at: gist.github.com/philswatton/...
gist.github.com
November 7, 2025 at 11:55 AM
I've made the code for the ANES output available at: gist.github.com/philswatton/...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
I've written a blog post about using metric unfolding to extract latent dimensions from data, using the ANES feeling thermometers & BES 'like' scales as examples.
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
November 7, 2025 at 11:55 AM
I've written a blog post about using metric unfolding to extract latent dimensions from data, using the ANES feeling thermometers & BES 'like' scales as examples.
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Mamdani is important because he best represents one emerging theory on how left wins again:
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
This is an Obama 2004 DNC Convention speech-level seismic event of a speech by Zohran Mamdani.
It's too bad he can't run for President, but this speech will be every bit as much of political earthquake that will be remembered.
It's too bad he can't run for President, but this speech will be every bit as much of political earthquake that will be remembered.
November 5, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Mamdani is important because he best represents one emerging theory on how left wins again:
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
I am now a doctor. Not a useful one, mind you, but a doctor nonetheless.
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...
Diversity, Deposits and the Death Penalty: Part 1
Trust me, I'm a doctor
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:58 AM
I am now a doctor. Not a useful one, mind you, but a doctor nonetheless.
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...
As an amuse-bouche for you, here is an abridged/accessible version of my PhD thesis's introduction section to entice you to read the whole thing...