Steve Akehurst
@steveakehurst.bsky.social
Politics, policy, public attitudes. Work in polling and comms. Director, Persuasion UK. ex- Shelter, civil service and various other things. 🏳️🌈
https://persuasionuk.org/about
https://strongmessagehere.substack.com/
https://persuasionuk.org/about
https://strongmessagehere.substack.com/
Pinned
Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government?
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
This daft jewellery story - which turns out to not even be true but proved needlessly divisive on a sensitive topic - happened because bits of Lab are *still* obsessed with briefing right wing tabloids.
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?
November 20, 2025 at 10:04 PM
This daft jewellery story - which turns out to not even be true but proved needlessly divisive on a sensitive topic - happened because bits of Lab are *still* obsessed with briefing right wing tabloids.
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?
I am very much team ‘you need to reduce the salience of asylum’ - but fixing a manifestly broken system has got to be some part of that surely.
There’s aspects of what was announced yesterday I’m not sure will work, but there’s not enough people on here engaging with the problem itself imo
There’s aspects of what was announced yesterday I’m not sure will work, but there’s not enough people on here engaging with the problem itself imo
What the Home Sec announced today is not the politics of compromise but of being compromised.
Labour has just increased the salience of an issue they will always be outbid on by the right.
Labour has just increased the salience of an issue they will always be outbid on by the right.
@pimlicat.bsky.social: "Multiple studies show that ramping up ever-harsher rhetoric on immigration and asylum never wins over Reform-curious voters. The government would be wiser to make the case for the international institutions and protections we all depend on.”
https://bit.ly/49YBJVD
https://bit.ly/49YBJVD
November 18, 2025 at 12:24 PM
I am very much team ‘you need to reduce the salience of asylum’ - but fixing a manifestly broken system has got to be some part of that surely.
There’s aspects of what was announced yesterday I’m not sure will work, but there’s not enough people on here engaging with the problem itself imo
There’s aspects of what was announced yesterday I’m not sure will work, but there’s not enough people on here engaging with the problem itself imo
This is important and depressing. Key point for me: you cannot understand anything in British politics today without understanding the radicalisation of right-leaning media in Britain and the power X has added to its ability to set the agenda.
The reaction to the Panorama edit has been nothing short of hysterical. Yes the BBC has some impartiality problems. But its biggest isn't the one you think.
New piece from me.
open.substack.com/pub/goodalla...
New piece from me.
open.substack.com/pub/goodalla...
The truth about impartiality at the BBC
And the hysteria of the current "crisis"
open.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 10:03 PM
This is important and depressing. Key point for me: you cannot understand anything in British politics today without understanding the radicalisation of right-leaning media in Britain and the power X has added to its ability to set the agenda.
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
One nice detail that can easily be lost in this graph - even right wingers trust the BBC more than the right wing tabloids
Here’s the same data, but with trust broken down by political views (circles are trust among people on the left, +s the right).
It’s not just that the BBC is widely consumed — it also has solid trust on both left & right, whereas trust in the biggest US media brands is hugely polarised.
It’s not just that the BBC is widely consumed — it also has solid trust on both left & right, whereas trust in the biggest US media brands is hugely polarised.
November 10, 2025 at 5:40 PM
One nice detail that can easily be lost in this graph - even right wingers trust the BBC more than the right wing tabloids
This story currently has more views on the BBC website than the Tim Davie resignation. We are still a country
November 10, 2025 at 11:20 AM
This story currently has more views on the BBC website than the Tim Davie resignation. We are still a country
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
I suspect there's also a strong element here of far too many journalists and BBC managers spending too much time on X and getting a wholly misleading impression of how big a story the Trump edits were. They're excessively influenced by right-wing activist opinion, and particularly US opinion.
The BBC is hopeless at reporting on itself. The idea that a minor, if misleading, edit is the most serious crisis in its history is ludicrous self-absorption, even allowing for the context of a Faragite desire to break it. It's certainly not as serious as the Iraq-Gilligan crisis.
November 10, 2025 at 9:48 AM
I suspect there's also a strong element here of far too many journalists and BBC managers spending too much time on X and getting a wholly misleading impression of how big a story the Trump edits were. They're excessively influenced by right-wing activist opinion, and particularly US opinion.
Great column here as ever from @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social - Gen Xis the key to understanding Reform, Trump etc, not Boomers.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Meet gen X: middle-aged, enraged and radicalised by internet bile | Gaby Hinsliff
Who is driving the populist insurgency? It’s not grumpy pensioners or vulnerable teenagers – it’s my generation, says Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff
www.theguardian.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Great column here as ever from @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social - Gen Xis the key to understanding Reform, Trump etc, not Boomers.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
The discourse would be less annoying if everyone just acknowledged that some of what you see in elections, especially in the US, is just cycles of anti-incumbency
A great day for the golden rule of political analysis: when the right wins it is a resounding ideological victory that humiliates the left and when the left wins it is a precarious fluke that will surely end up humiliating the left. Conservatives are power’s landlords and the left merely tenants
November 5, 2025 at 12:49 PM
The discourse would be less annoying if everyone just acknowledged that some of what you see in elections, especially in the US, is just cycles of anti-incumbency
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
A great day for the golden rule of political analysis: when the right wins it is a resounding ideological victory that humiliates the left and when the left wins it is a precarious fluke that will surely end up humiliating the left. Conservatives are power’s landlords and the left merely tenants
November 5, 2025 at 10:35 AM
A great day for the golden rule of political analysis: when the right wins it is a resounding ideological victory that humiliates the left and when the left wins it is a precarious fluke that will surely end up humiliating the left. Conservatives are power’s landlords and the left merely tenants
Mamdani is important because he best represents one emerging theory on how left wins again:
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
This is an Obama 2004 DNC Convention speech-level seismic event of a speech by Zohran Mamdani.
It's too bad he can't run for President, but this speech will be every bit as much of political earthquake that will be remembered.
It's too bad he can't run for President, but this speech will be every bit as much of political earthquake that will be remembered.
November 5, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Mamdani is important because he best represents one emerging theory on how left wins again:
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention.
Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability
Not language to make my mother proud but basically sums up Budget I think.
Full @persuasionuk.bsky.social research below !
Full @persuasionuk.bsky.social research below !
November 4, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Not language to make my mother proud but basically sums up Budget I think.
Full @persuasionuk.bsky.social research below !
Full @persuasionuk.bsky.social research below !
That which does not defeat woke will only make it stronger
October 31, 2025 at 3:15 PM
That which does not defeat woke will only make it stronger
Key chart here from today's report and slightly messed the wording of the post up, apols - should read: while there is a penalty for breaching the manifesto, it's dwarfed by failure on public realm, cost of living and child poverty.
Really wish BlueSky had an edit button!
Really wish BlueSky had an edit button!
What you see is pretty striking. While there, it's dwarfed by punishment for failure on public realm, cost of living and - strikingly - child poverty.
This is *especially true with Labour 2024 voters*. On the reward side, NHS again salient.
This is *especially true with Labour 2024 voters*. On the reward side, NHS again salient.
October 29, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Key chart here from today's report and slightly messed the wording of the post up, apols - should read: while there is a penalty for breaching the manifesto, it's dwarfed by failure on public realm, cost of living and child poverty.
Really wish BlueSky had an edit button!
Really wish BlueSky had an edit button!
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Fascinating report out today looking at the choices facing Labour ahead of the budget - there are no good options but failing on core progressive goals is a much bigger risk for Labour govt than breaking promises on tax.
Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government?
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
October 29, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Fascinating report out today looking at the choices facing Labour ahead of the budget - there are no good options but failing on core progressive goals is a much bigger risk for Labour govt than breaking promises on tax.
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Alternatively, you can listen to me discuss it with @anooshc.bsky.social on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social podcast today.
End of thread! Sorry it was such a long one, but a lot in there.
open.spotify.com/episode/3e4L...
End of thread! Sorry it was such a long one, but a lot in there.
open.spotify.com/episode/3e4L...
Can Labour afford to raise taxes?
open.spotify.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Alternatively, you can listen to me discuss it with @anooshc.bsky.social on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social podcast today.
End of thread! Sorry it was such a long one, but a lot in there.
open.spotify.com/episode/3e4L...
End of thread! Sorry it was such a long one, but a lot in there.
open.spotify.com/episode/3e4L...
Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government?
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government?
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
The biggest reasons Labour/Green voters give for not voting Green are all tactical, not values based.
Elsewhere, among 'Reform curious Lab voters' still willing to re-consider, economic populist arguments registered best. For everyone else it's their connection with Trumpism.
Elsewhere, among 'Reform curious Lab voters' still willing to re-consider, economic populist arguments registered best. For everyone else it's their connection with Trumpism.
October 27, 2025 at 4:25 PM
The biggest reasons Labour/Green voters give for not voting Green are all tactical, not values based.
Elsewhere, among 'Reform curious Lab voters' still willing to re-consider, economic populist arguments registered best. For everyone else it's their connection with Trumpism.
Elsewhere, among 'Reform curious Lab voters' still willing to re-consider, economic populist arguments registered best. For everyone else it's their connection with Trumpism.
Green party voters are the only voter group where a plurality say they have achieved less in life than they expected to when they were younger.
Happiness = reality - expectations!
Happiness = reality - expectations!
October 24, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Green party voters are the only voter group where a plurality say they have achieved less in life than they expected to when they were younger.
Happiness = reality - expectations!
Happiness = reality - expectations!
Continually amused by how low-rent every single corruption scandal in UK politics is
Not really the main point for these witnesses statements but this is unbelievably low grade stuff to be passing on.
Tugendhat did not in fact get a cabinet job and Jeremy Hunt endorsed Rishi Sunak. Did the Chinese realise how crap all this intelligence was?
Tugendhat did not in fact get a cabinet job and Jeremy Hunt endorsed Rishi Sunak. Did the Chinese realise how crap all this intelligence was?
October 16, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Continually amused by how low-rent every single corruption scandal in UK politics is
Some very useful stuff here on a topic where there’s a lot of froth and bad research.
Basic truth is Gen Z men in the UK are simply not more right wing - in attitudes or voting behaviour - than older generations. They are less.
Most of the intra-gen divide is young women getting more progressive.
Basic truth is Gen Z men in the UK are simply not more right wing - in attitudes or voting behaviour - than older generations. They are less.
Most of the intra-gen divide is young women getting more progressive.
🧵/ Our major new study on young men, masculinity, and misogyny questions the extent to which Gen Z men are really more likely to hold misogynist views than older generations of men
October 14, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Some very useful stuff here on a topic where there’s a lot of froth and bad research.
Basic truth is Gen Z men in the UK are simply not more right wing - in attitudes or voting behaviour - than older generations. They are less.
Most of the intra-gen divide is young women getting more progressive.
Basic truth is Gen Z men in the UK are simply not more right wing - in attitudes or voting behaviour - than older generations. They are less.
Most of the intra-gen divide is young women getting more progressive.
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
The last time I posted the income relationship to presidential vote among White respondents to the @electionstudies.bsky.social ANES, people asked for additional estimates among all voters.
Updated estimates here:
Updated estimates here:
October 2, 2025 at 4:26 PM
The last time I posted the income relationship to presidential vote among White respondents to the @electionstudies.bsky.social ANES, people asked for additional estimates among all voters.
Updated estimates here:
Updated estimates here:
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
No more hippy punching. Starmer decides to stop punching its own voters in the face www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Labour has decided to stop punching its own voters
Sir Keir Starmer has embraced peace and love of the party’s hippy base
www.economist.com
October 1, 2025 at 8:50 PM
No more hippy punching. Starmer decides to stop punching its own voters in the face www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
wrote about a great writer thealexpress.substack.com/p/kaleb-horton
Kaleb Horton
Writing can be beautiful.
thealexpress.substack.com
September 29, 2025 at 6:27 PM
wrote about a great writer thealexpress.substack.com/p/kaleb-horton
All that years of anti-climate/environment invective on Conservative right has achieved so far is create a wedge within their own electoral coalition. Those switching from Con to Reform are anti Net Zero, those that have remained are pro.
Labour coalition meanwhile is basically unscathed.
Labour coalition meanwhile is basically unscathed.
October 2, 2025 at 9:12 AM
All that years of anti-climate/environment invective on Conservative right has achieved so far is create a wedge within their own electoral coalition. Those switching from Con to Reform are anti Net Zero, those that have remained are pro.
Labour coalition meanwhile is basically unscathed.
Labour coalition meanwhile is basically unscathed.
Decent speech overall. First time I’ve seen Starmer confidently articulate a values argument against Reform, not just a narrow competence one. Potentially important juncture.
September 30, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Decent speech overall. First time I’ve seen Starmer confidently articulate a values argument against Reform, not just a narrow competence one. Potentially important juncture.