Steve Akehurst
@steveakehurst.bsky.social
Politics, policy, public attitudes. Work in polling and comms. Director, Persuasion UK. ex- Shelter, civil service and various other things. 🏳️🌈
https://persuasionuk.org/about
https://strongmessagehere.substack.com/
https://persuasionuk.org/about
https://strongmessagehere.substack.com/
Funny thing here is right now Burnham is only Lab politician with reach into both the Reform & Green vote.
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
January 22, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Funny thing here is right now Burnham is only Lab politician with reach into both the Reform & Green vote.
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
Carney has shown more political foresight in understanding (a) Trump 2 is not Trump 1 (b) he only understands strength & (c) you can use standing up to him to wrong-foot your domestic opponents - than every European leader combined.
A former central banker!
A former central banker!
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
January 20, 2026 at 9:37 PM
Carney has shown more political foresight in understanding (a) Trump 2 is not Trump 1 (b) he only understands strength & (c) you can use standing up to him to wrong-foot your domestic opponents - than every European leader combined.
A former central banker!
A former central banker!
Jenrick, Zahawi defecting surely now makes certain that Reform will be running as a small-state, economically right wing party at the next election.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Key line in Will Lloyd's piece on Robert Jenrick's sacking: "Jenrick had told friends in recent weeks that he thought Reform lacked a viable economic spokesperson or an eventual shadow chancellor."
Is that the job Jenrick has his eye on?
@willoyd.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/con...
Is that the job Jenrick has his eye on?
@willoyd.bsky.social
www.newstatesman.com/politics/con...
Is there a strategy behind Kemi's Jenrick purge?
She cannot decide whether to rebuild or remake the Conservative Party
www.newstatesman.com
January 15, 2026 at 6:54 PM
Jenrick, Zahawi defecting surely now makes certain that Reform will be running as a small-state, economically right wing party at the next election.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Quite a big shift from the positioning they were flirting with just 12 months ago, and a new potential vulnerability for them.
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
if you want to understand the misinformation about Net Zero estimates this is a great starting point
🧵A political/media guide to the "truth" about net-zero
1) Add up costs to install & run a net-zero energy system
2) Pretend fossil-fuelled alternatives wld be free
3) Do say "eco zealots are bankrupting us"
4) Don't say "free cars if we scrap net-zero" cos it sounds ridiculous
5) That's it!
1/10
1) Add up costs to install & run a net-zero energy system
2) Pretend fossil-fuelled alternatives wld be free
3) Do say "eco zealots are bankrupting us"
4) Don't say "free cars if we scrap net-zero" cos it sounds ridiculous
5) That's it!
1/10
January 13, 2026 at 12:24 PM
if you want to understand the misinformation about Net Zero estimates this is a great starting point
Always look under the bonnet of polls before reaching sweeping conclusions.
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
January 8, 2026 at 1:23 PM
Always look under the bonnet of polls before reaching sweeping conclusions.
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
It’s worth mentioning, though it’s been said repeatedly: the Lizzie Line carries 1/6th of UK daily rail passengers (not including the Tube) and has already paid off its entire costs.
And if HS2 had been committed to, without plans being tweaked every 5 minutes, Phase 1 would be opening next year.
And if HS2 had been committed to, without plans being tweaked every 5 minutes, Phase 1 would be opening next year.
Worked example of the crippling effects or Treasury brain here
Elizabeth Line would ‘never’ be built, Michael Portillo wrote when urging cancellation
Former Treasury minister warned that Crossrail London link was too costly and unnecessary, newly released papers show
www.ft.com
December 30, 2025 at 12:17 PM
It’s worth mentioning, though it’s been said repeatedly: the Lizzie Line carries 1/6th of UK daily rail passengers (not including the Tube) and has already paid off its entire costs.
And if HS2 had been committed to, without plans being tweaked every 5 minutes, Phase 1 would be opening next year.
And if HS2 had been committed to, without plans being tweaked every 5 minutes, Phase 1 would be opening next year.
Merry Christmas to all and here’s to another year in this intensely normal media environment!
December 25, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Merry Christmas to all and here’s to another year in this intensely normal media environment!
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Quite the chart. www.ft.com/content/30a4...
December 20, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Quite the chart. www.ft.com/content/30a4...
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Verian’s polling in the 2024 GE campaign was a) by an innovative random sampling method rather than a panel and b) pretty accurate, in that it had a lower Lab number than most.
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 27% (+12)
CON: 21% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-17)
LDM: 15% (+3)
GRN: 13% (+6)
Via @veriangroup.com, 12-15 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2024.
RFM: 27% (+12)
CON: 21% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-17)
LDM: 15% (+3)
GRN: 13% (+6)
Via @veriangroup.com, 12-15 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2024.
December 19, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Verian’s polling in the 2024 GE campaign was a) by an innovative random sampling method rather than a panel and b) pretty accurate, in that it had a lower Lab number than most.
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Fascinating and beautiful piece of magazine journalism by Kate Mossman on the plane that was nearly crashed by a passenger nine months before 9/11:
The strange fate of Flight 2069
How do you measure the cost of a disaster that didn’t happen?
www.newstatesman.com
December 15, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Fascinating and beautiful piece of magazine journalism by Kate Mossman on the plane that was nearly crashed by a passenger nine months before 9/11:
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
The Bondi Beach Jewish community was gathering to light candles for Hanukkah.
They were targeted because they were Jewish.
They should be alive today.
What we saw today was antisemitism and it was the definition of evil.
They were targeted because they were Jewish.
They should be alive today.
What we saw today was antisemitism and it was the definition of evil.
December 14, 2025 at 3:50 PM
The Bondi Beach Jewish community was gathering to light candles for Hanukkah.
They were targeted because they were Jewish.
They should be alive today.
What we saw today was antisemitism and it was the definition of evil.
They were targeted because they were Jewish.
They should be alive today.
What we saw today was antisemitism and it was the definition of evil.
By coincidence was reading V13 by Emmanuel Carrere when learning of Bondi attack - this Simone Weil quote in it seems v apt today:
“Imaginary evil is romantic and varied; real evil is gloomy, monotonous, barren, boring. Imaginary good is boring; real good is always new, marvellous, intoxicating...
“Imaginary evil is romantic and varied; real evil is gloomy, monotonous, barren, boring. Imaginary good is boring; real good is always new, marvellous, intoxicating...
December 14, 2025 at 9:43 PM
By coincidence was reading V13 by Emmanuel Carrere when learning of Bondi attack - this Simone Weil quote in it seems v apt today:
“Imaginary evil is romantic and varied; real evil is gloomy, monotonous, barren, boring. Imaginary good is boring; real good is always new, marvellous, intoxicating...
“Imaginary evil is romantic and varied; real evil is gloomy, monotonous, barren, boring. Imaginary good is boring; real good is always new, marvellous, intoxicating...
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
I found this today (from Peter Kellner/YouGov) which answers part of your query.
December 9, 2025 at 8:40 PM
I found this today (from Peter Kellner/YouGov) which answers part of your query.
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
& there are signs now of govt recognising that. Will it last? Is it too late? Will they cock it up? possibly, but I wanted to write this week about recognising a good thing when you see it rather than immediately jumping to all the reasons it’s not good enough www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Give credit where it’s due: Labour is finally doing things its supporters actually want | Gaby Hinsliff
From tackling child poverty to being honest about Brexit, the party seems to have recognised the growing electoral threat to its left, says Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff
www.theguardian.com
December 5, 2025 at 9:34 AM
& there are signs now of govt recognising that. Will it last? Is it too late? Will they cock it up? possibly, but I wanted to write this week about recognising a good thing when you see it rather than immediately jumping to all the reasons it’s not good enough www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
This is just excellent, every single point is essential to understanding UK politics - and I can’t wait to read the book by @timbale.bsky.social @psurridge.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social
New post just out:
Six lessons from the 2024 election.
And what they mean for the next one.
Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Six lessons from the 2024 election.
And what they mean for the next one.
Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Six lessons from the 2024 election
And what they mean for the next one
samf.substack.com
December 4, 2025 at 12:56 PM
This is just excellent, every single point is essential to understanding UK politics - and I can’t wait to read the book by @timbale.bsky.social @psurridge.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social
On electoral pacts, 'just for fun' I asked this recently: what if the choice in your area was a candidate from a left alliance (Labour/Green/LD/Plaid/SNP) or a candidate from a right alliance? (Con/Reform)?
+10 lead for prog alliance, narrow margin even in Red Wall.
Via @yougov.co.uk
+10 lead for prog alliance, narrow margin even in Red Wall.
Via @yougov.co.uk
December 3, 2025 at 6:10 PM
On electoral pacts, 'just for fun' I asked this recently: what if the choice in your area was a candidate from a left alliance (Labour/Green/LD/Plaid/SNP) or a candidate from a right alliance? (Con/Reform)?
+10 lead for prog alliance, narrow margin even in Red Wall.
Via @yougov.co.uk
+10 lead for prog alliance, narrow margin even in Red Wall.
Via @yougov.co.uk
With thanks to @luketryl.bsky.social for the inspo on the ther place, here's migration salience and Reform vote share plotted over 2025.
Ok, not one-for-one, but pretty decent positive correlation.
Likewise, anytime economy spikes, Reform vote softens slightly.
Agenda setting matters!
Ok, not one-for-one, but pretty decent positive correlation.
Likewise, anytime economy spikes, Reform vote softens slightly.
Agenda setting matters!
December 1, 2025 at 9:40 PM
With thanks to @luketryl.bsky.social for the inspo on the ther place, here's migration salience and Reform vote share plotted over 2025.
Ok, not one-for-one, but pretty decent positive correlation.
Likewise, anytime economy spikes, Reform vote softens slightly.
Agenda setting matters!
Ok, not one-for-one, but pretty decent positive correlation.
Likewise, anytime economy spikes, Reform vote softens slightly.
Agenda setting matters!
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
the one thing we didn't want to happen
November 30, 2025 at 11:05 PM
the one thing we didn't want to happen
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Option B! Option B!
Here are the options for how the leadership of Your Party will work, being voted on by members shortly (results tomorrow)
In short:
Option A = single leader (Corbyn v Sultana, most likely)
Option B = A 'collective' leadership, effectively of three non-MP members from the central committee
In short:
Option A = single leader (Corbyn v Sultana, most likely)
Option B = A 'collective' leadership, effectively of three non-MP members from the central committee
November 29, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Option B! Option B!
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Having watch child poverty rise like a slow-motion car crash since the two-child limit was introduced, sat in meetings up and down the country, in foodbanks, in schools, to work out how to get child poverty down, the idea that this undoing this policy is 'PLP management' is a joke.
It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.
Headline on The World at One just now:
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
November 27, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Having watch child poverty rise like a slow-motion car crash since the two-child limit was introduced, sat in meetings up and down the country, in foodbanks, in schools, to work out how to get child poverty down, the idea that this undoing this policy is 'PLP management' is a joke.
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.
Headline on The World at One just now:
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
November 27, 2025 at 1:16 PM
It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.
Reposted by Steve Akehurst
Britain's left-wing government is left-wing www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Britain’s left-wing government is left-wing
An obvious fact. But still an overlooked one
www.economist.com
November 27, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Britain's left-wing government is left-wing www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Tactically I think Reeves made best of a bad situation today - the individual measures were sensible and some good stuff in there.
But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.
But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.
I think a government in a stronger political position would have been prepared to be bolder at the moment.
November 26, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Tactically I think Reeves made best of a bad situation today - the individual measures were sensible and some good stuff in there.
But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.
But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.
The two-child benefit cap might have been popular, but consequences of keeping it (rising child poverty) would not be.
And its those Lab would have been punished most harshly on, as @persuasionuk.bsky.social research showed.
Brave but right decision to lift it this far from election.
And its those Lab would have been punished most harshly on, as @persuasionuk.bsky.social research showed.
Brave but right decision to lift it this far from election.
November 26, 2025 at 1:38 PM
The two-child benefit cap might have been popular, but consequences of keeping it (rising child poverty) would not be.
And its those Lab would have been punished most harshly on, as @persuasionuk.bsky.social research showed.
Brave but right decision to lift it this far from election.
And its those Lab would have been punished most harshly on, as @persuasionuk.bsky.social research showed.
Brave but right decision to lift it this far from election.
This daft jewellery story - which turns out to not even be true but proved needlessly divisive on a sensitive topic - happened because bits of Lab are *still* obsessed with briefing right wing tabloids.
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?
November 20, 2025 at 10:04 PM
This daft jewellery story - which turns out to not even be true but proved needlessly divisive on a sensitive topic - happened because bits of Lab are *still* obsessed with briefing right wing tabloids.
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?