Steve Akehurst
@steveakehurst.bsky.social
Politics, policy, public attitudes. Work in polling and comms. Director, Persuasion UK. ex- Shelter, civil service and various other things. 🏳️🌈
https://persuasionuk.org/about
https://strongmessagehere.substack.com/
https://persuasionuk.org/about
https://strongmessagehere.substack.com/
(accept he's still in negative territory with Reform and Con, but 18-20% of those voters liking him is pretty significant when you consider the equivalent figures for the party are a rounding error. Tables: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/In...)
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net
January 22, 2026 at 3:15 PM
(accept he's still in negative territory with Reform and Con, but 18-20% of those voters liking him is pretty significant when you consider the equivalent figures for the party are a rounding error. Tables: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/In...)
You cannot intimidate a man that’s had to watch Cenk Tosun for fun
January 20, 2026 at 10:00 PM
You cannot intimidate a man that’s had to watch Cenk Tosun for fun
And an economy and state even more integrated with the US than the UK. Still, I’m sure salmon shirted FCDO types ‘grown ups in the room’ theory will work eventually…
January 20, 2026 at 9:37 PM
And an economy and state even more integrated with the US than the UK. Still, I’m sure salmon shirted FCDO types ‘grown ups in the room’ theory will work eventually…
true tho hard to believe they'll be genuinely pushing for positions like water nationalisation - esp given the tide within Reform seems to have turned against that stuff recently
January 15, 2026 at 6:59 PM
true tho hard to believe they'll be genuinely pushing for positions like water nationalisation - esp given the tide within Reform seems to have turned against that stuff recently
'Isn't it terribly fascinating how left wing Reform are' was always a bad take because it was always going to be too discordant with their elite coalition to be credible. Their current positioning is more coherent in that regard, but makes it harder to reach further into the Labour + normie vote.
January 15, 2026 at 6:54 PM
'Isn't it terribly fascinating how left wing Reform are' was always a bad take because it was always going to be too discordant with their elite coalition to be credible. Their current positioning is more coherent in that regard, but makes it harder to reach further into the Labour + normie vote.
IMO this covers the contradictions fairly well. (There’s also many places they’ve been to the left of manifesto, esp on tax and spend) www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Keir Starmer is one of Labour’s most rightwing prime ministers. And one of its most leftwing, too | Andy Beckett
The PM offers a political hybrid designed for a fickle electorate. There are short-term electoral gains to be won, but risks in the long term, says Guardian columnist Andy Beckett
www.theguardian.com
January 8, 2026 at 8:15 PM
IMO this covers the contradictions fairly well. (There’s also many places they’ve been to the left of manifesto, esp on tax and spend) www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
More just relentlessly spamming me with the same stuff tbh
January 8, 2026 at 4:59 PM
More just relentlessly spamming me with the same stuff tbh
Last one on this cos we obviously won’t agree: I think the fact you think that - and the fact many in No 10 *want you specifically to think that* - is part of their problem when set against the actual policy choices they’ve made.
January 8, 2026 at 4:33 PM
Last one on this cos we obviously won’t agree: I think the fact you think that - and the fact many in No 10 *want you specifically to think that* - is part of their problem when set against the actual policy choices they’ve made.
The recent migration stuff is probably to the right of most European centre left parties. And if that issue matters most to you I’d get why you think they are incredibly right wing. But taken across the board it’s just not true historically or comparatively.
January 8, 2026 at 4:30 PM
The recent migration stuff is probably to the right of most European centre left parties. And if that issue matters most to you I’d get why you think they are incredibly right wing. But taken across the board it’s just not true historically or comparatively.
Last one on this because it’s incredibly tedious: I’m not saying they are good or bad, that’s not my job. But if you judge them by the broad sweet of policies they have enacted in govt or promised to enact, basically every academic study puts them as a bog standard centre-left party.
January 8, 2026 at 4:28 PM
Last one on this because it’s incredibly tedious: I’m not saying they are good or bad, that’s not my job. But if you judge them by the broad sweet of policies they have enacted in govt or promised to enact, basically every academic study puts them as a bog standard centre-left party.
Such as what? On the contrary, in lots of areas they’ve been to the left of their manifesto - esp on tax and spend and child poverty
January 8, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Such as what? On the contrary, in lots of areas they’ve been to the left of their manifesto - esp on tax and spend and child poverty
A lot of people who say don’t know do go on to vote though, most in fact.
That’s why pollsters get nervous.
Still, personally I prefer clean approach of taking them out (rather than fancy modelling) but then publishing VI figures with and without them. But I’d guess journos find this annoying.
That’s why pollsters get nervous.
Still, personally I prefer clean approach of taking them out (rather than fancy modelling) but then publishing VI figures with and without them. But I’d guess journos find this annoying.
January 8, 2026 at 4:19 PM
A lot of people who say don’t know do go on to vote though, most in fact.
That’s why pollsters get nervous.
Still, personally I prefer clean approach of taking them out (rather than fancy modelling) but then publishing VI figures with and without them. But I’d guess journos find this annoying.
That’s why pollsters get nervous.
Still, personally I prefer clean approach of taking them out (rather than fancy modelling) but then publishing VI figures with and without them. But I’d guess journos find this annoying.
I hope that’s true because definitely aligns with my overall view on how you need to govern to win!
But do you not think there’s anything to idea (a) policy journalism has been a bit hollowed out in favour of lobby & (b) Brexit years got journos addicted to short-term electoral/leadership drama?
But do you not think there’s anything to idea (a) policy journalism has been a bit hollowed out in favour of lobby & (b) Brexit years got journos addicted to short-term electoral/leadership drama?
January 8, 2026 at 4:07 PM
I hope that’s true because definitely aligns with my overall view on how you need to govern to win!
But do you not think there’s anything to idea (a) policy journalism has been a bit hollowed out in favour of lobby & (b) Brexit years got journos addicted to short-term electoral/leadership drama?
But do you not think there’s anything to idea (a) policy journalism has been a bit hollowed out in favour of lobby & (b) Brexit years got journos addicted to short-term electoral/leadership drama?
Pollsters do increasingly include these kinds of questions in their omnibus polls - eg I noted Opinium started doing. So I think there’s some onus on them to put them under the nose of journos at same time as headline VI stuff. But yes likely a doomed effort!
January 8, 2026 at 3:58 PM
Pollsters do increasingly include these kinds of questions in their omnibus polls - eg I noted Opinium started doing. So I think there’s some onus on them to put them under the nose of journos at same time as headline VI stuff. But yes likely a doomed effort!
Anything wholeheartedly welcomed by the TUC, Shelter and the Child Poverty Action Group is a decent induction of something being to the left of centre, I’d say.
January 8, 2026 at 3:56 PM
Anything wholeheartedly welcomed by the TUC, Shelter and the Child Poverty Action Group is a decent induction of something being to the left of centre, I’d say.
Very significant upgrades to workers rights, renters rights and taxing rich people to spend on the NHS and child poverty. All viscerally opposed by the right in the UK.
This is why academics consistently place Lab on the centre left in European terms, and to the left of New Labour.
This is why academics consistently place Lab on the centre left in European terms, and to the left of New Labour.
January 8, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Very significant upgrades to workers rights, renters rights and taxing rich people to spend on the NHS and child poverty. All viscerally opposed by the right in the UK.
This is why academics consistently place Lab on the centre left in European terms, and to the left of New Labour.
This is why academics consistently place Lab on the centre left in European terms, and to the left of New Labour.
You don’t find their significant interventions on workers rights, renters rights and child poverty (all strongly opposed by the right) as meaningful indicators of their left-right positioning in any way?
January 8, 2026 at 3:45 PM
You don’t find their significant interventions on workers rights, renters rights and child poverty (all strongly opposed by the right) as meaningful indicators of their left-right positioning in any way?
...rather than single mindledly prioritising one narrow voter group most of whom despise you by this point and prob aren't coming back.
January 8, 2026 at 3:42 PM
...rather than single mindledly prioritising one narrow voter group most of whom despise you by this point and prob aren't coming back.
Yes imo you start from here: what is an approach that brings together *everyone* still open to voting Labour who aren't currently intending to - that will include the slither of Lab/Reform switchers open to coming back but also a larger number of left defectors, other 2024 left bloc voters etc...
January 8, 2026 at 3:41 PM
Yes imo you start from here: what is an approach that brings together *everyone* still open to voting Labour who aren't currently intending to - that will include the slither of Lab/Reform switchers open to coming back but also a larger number of left defectors, other 2024 left bloc voters etc...
by any objective standard they are to the left of New Labour on economics
January 8, 2026 at 3:37 PM
by any objective standard they are to the left of New Labour on economics
yes. Although robustly polling young people who will be 16-17 by 2029 and are 13-14 now is obviously extremely challenging.
January 8, 2026 at 3:36 PM
yes. Although robustly polling young people who will be 16-17 by 2029 and are 13-14 now is obviously extremely challenging.