Steve Akehurst
@steveakehurst.bsky.social
Politics, policy, public attitudes. Work in polling and comms. Director, Persuasion UK. ex- Shelter, civil service and various other things. 🏳️🌈
https://persuasionuk.org/about
https://strongmessagehere.substack.com/
https://persuasionuk.org/about
https://strongmessagehere.substack.com/
Funny thing here is right now Burnham is only Lab politician with reach into both the Reform & Green vote.
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
January 22, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Funny thing here is right now Burnham is only Lab politician with reach into both the Reform & Green vote.
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
Some of this will be because he's 'outside' the system, not wrestling with the gordian knot of the British state.
But also ironically makes him the best shot Lab have at holding the seat !
Always look under the bonnet of polls before reaching sweeping conclusions.
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
January 8, 2026 at 1:23 PM
Always look under the bonnet of polls before reaching sweeping conclusions.
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
Even in this poll, left bloc voters are (a) less likely to say they'll vote(b) more likely to say don't know. Ergo more are taken out the sample and/or re-modelled.
Many left bloc voters aren't switching, they are hiding !
👍 I humbly predict 2026 will see levels of divorced dad posting previously unseen. Happy new year all
January 1, 2026 at 2:49 AM
👍 I humbly predict 2026 will see levels of divorced dad posting previously unseen. Happy new year all
Merry Christmas to all and here’s to another year in this intensely normal media environment!
December 25, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Merry Christmas to all and here’s to another year in this intensely normal media environment!
On electoral pacts, 'just for fun' I asked this recently: what if the choice in your area was a candidate from a left alliance (Labour/Green/LD/Plaid/SNP) or a candidate from a right alliance? (Con/Reform)?
+10 lead for prog alliance, narrow margin even in Red Wall.
Via @yougov.co.uk
+10 lead for prog alliance, narrow margin even in Red Wall.
Via @yougov.co.uk
December 3, 2025 at 6:10 PM
On electoral pacts, 'just for fun' I asked this recently: what if the choice in your area was a candidate from a left alliance (Labour/Green/LD/Plaid/SNP) or a candidate from a right alliance? (Con/Reform)?
+10 lead for prog alliance, narrow margin even in Red Wall.
Via @yougov.co.uk
+10 lead for prog alliance, narrow margin even in Red Wall.
Via @yougov.co.uk
With thanks to @luketryl.bsky.social for the inspo on the ther place, here's migration salience and Reform vote share plotted over 2025.
Ok, not one-for-one, but pretty decent positive correlation.
Likewise, anytime economy spikes, Reform vote softens slightly.
Agenda setting matters!
Ok, not one-for-one, but pretty decent positive correlation.
Likewise, anytime economy spikes, Reform vote softens slightly.
Agenda setting matters!
December 1, 2025 at 9:40 PM
With thanks to @luketryl.bsky.social for the inspo on the ther place, here's migration salience and Reform vote share plotted over 2025.
Ok, not one-for-one, but pretty decent positive correlation.
Likewise, anytime economy spikes, Reform vote softens slightly.
Agenda setting matters!
Ok, not one-for-one, but pretty decent positive correlation.
Likewise, anytime economy spikes, Reform vote softens slightly.
Agenda setting matters!
This daft jewellery story - which turns out to not even be true but proved needlessly divisive on a sensitive topic - happened because bits of Lab are *still* obsessed with briefing right wing tabloids.
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?
November 20, 2025 at 10:04 PM
This daft jewellery story - which turns out to not even be true but proved needlessly divisive on a sensitive topic - happened because bits of Lab are *still* obsessed with briefing right wing tabloids.
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?
But here's thing: nobody reads these outlets anymore. Labour/Reform voters don't. So why do it?
This story currently has more views on the BBC website than the Tim Davie resignation. We are still a country
November 10, 2025 at 11:20 AM
This story currently has more views on the BBC website than the Tim Davie resignation. We are still a country
Not language to make my mother proud but basically sums up Budget I think.
Full @persuasionuk.bsky.social research below !
Full @persuasionuk.bsky.social research below !
November 4, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Not language to make my mother proud but basically sums up Budget I think.
Full @persuasionuk.bsky.social research below !
Full @persuasionuk.bsky.social research below !
That which does not defeat woke will only make it stronger
October 31, 2025 at 3:15 PM
That which does not defeat woke will only make it stronger
The message testing on this is fairly grim for Govt. But best arguments (or least worst) focus on positive arguments on fairness, cost of living schemes & public services.
Solely blaming last Govt/Brexit prob won't cut it.
You can't win everyone but there's a coalition there.
Solely blaming last Govt/Brexit prob won't cut it.
You can't win everyone but there's a coalition there.
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
The message testing on this is fairly grim for Govt. But best arguments (or least worst) focus on positive arguments on fairness, cost of living schemes & public services.
Solely blaming last Govt/Brexit prob won't cut it.
You can't win everyone but there's a coalition there.
Solely blaming last Govt/Brexit prob won't cut it.
You can't win everyone but there's a coalition there.
What you see is pretty striking. While there, it's dwarfed by punishment for failure on public realm, cost of living and - strikingly - child poverty.
This is *especially true with Labour 2024 voters*. On the reward side, NHS again salient.
This is *especially true with Labour 2024 voters*. On the reward side, NHS again salient.
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
What you see is pretty striking. While there, it's dwarfed by punishment for failure on public realm, cost of living and - strikingly - child poverty.
This is *especially true with Labour 2024 voters*. On the reward side, NHS again salient.
This is *especially true with Labour 2024 voters*. On the reward side, NHS again salient.
To try and get at these trade-offs, I set up a conjoint experiment. Voters were presented with a random Labour record - three successes and failures - and asked how they'd approve of a Govt standing for re-election in 2028.
Which outcomes were most punished and rewarded?
Which outcomes were most punished and rewarded?
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
To try and get at these trade-offs, I set up a conjoint experiment. Voters were presented with a random Labour record - three successes and failures - and asked how they'd approve of a Govt standing for re-election in 2028.
Which outcomes were most punished and rewarded?
Which outcomes were most punished and rewarded?
It's easy to dismiss this but support for these taxes is *very robust*.
Most people are unmoved by arguments over millionaire exodus.
Elsewhere, CGT and landlord taxation survived exposure to difficult/sympathetic edge cases (which you can find in the report).
Most people are unmoved by arguments over millionaire exodus.
Elsewhere, CGT and landlord taxation survived exposure to difficult/sympathetic edge cases (which you can find in the report).
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
It's easy to dismiss this but support for these taxes is *very robust*.
Most people are unmoved by arguments over millionaire exodus.
Elsewhere, CGT and landlord taxation survived exposure to difficult/sympathetic edge cases (which you can find in the report).
Most people are unmoved by arguments over millionaire exodus.
Elsewhere, CGT and landlord taxation survived exposure to difficult/sympathetic edge cases (which you can find in the report).
Indeed, opposition to taxing most affluent groups is genuinely very low.
There is a danger zone - pensioners, petrol car drivers, small biz - but also a lot of soft targets: banks, gambling companies, oil and gas, landlords etc.
[graph 8]
There is a danger zone - pensioners, petrol car drivers, small biz - but also a lot of soft targets: banks, gambling companies, oil and gas, landlords etc.
[graph 8]
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Indeed, opposition to taxing most affluent groups is genuinely very low.
There is a danger zone - pensioners, petrol car drivers, small biz - but also a lot of soft targets: banks, gambling companies, oil and gas, landlords etc.
[graph 8]
There is a danger zone - pensioners, petrol car drivers, small biz - but also a lot of soft targets: banks, gambling companies, oil and gas, landlords etc.
[graph 8]
In this environment, a 'anyone but me' view prevails. People are fine with changing fiscal rules (tho some good reasons to be wary there) but their *strong preference is the rich pay more* - specifically those with earnings over 100k or over £1m in wealth.
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
In this environment, a 'anyone but me' view prevails. People are fine with changing fiscal rules (tho some good reasons to be wary there) but their *strong preference is the rich pay more* - specifically those with earnings over 100k or over £1m in wealth.
Trust in Govt generally is also v low. There's no area more voters think Govt would spend extra money well in.
Concerns on waste are present. Military/defence is only area most people even accept needs more money vs efficiency savings!
Lab coalition is easier but not loads.
Concerns on waste are present. Military/defence is only area most people even accept needs more money vs efficiency savings!
Lab coalition is easier but not loads.
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Trust in Govt generally is also v low. There's no area more voters think Govt would spend extra money well in.
Concerns on waste are present. Military/defence is only area most people even accept needs more money vs efficiency savings!
Lab coalition is easier but not loads.
Concerns on waste are present. Military/defence is only area most people even accept needs more money vs efficiency savings!
Lab coalition is easier but not loads.
First thing to say is obvious but bears repeating: this is an utterly horrible operating environment for Govt. It has burnt through much of the good-will it entered office with.
Most people not only feel squeezed, but that they put more into the system than they get back.
Most people not only feel squeezed, but that they put more into the system than they get back.
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
First thing to say is obvious but bears repeating: this is an utterly horrible operating environment for Govt. It has burnt through much of the good-will it entered office with.
Most people not only feel squeezed, but that they put more into the system than they get back.
Most people not only feel squeezed, but that they put more into the system than they get back.
Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government?
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government?
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
The biggest reasons Labour/Green voters give for not voting Green are all tactical, not values based.
Elsewhere, among 'Reform curious Lab voters' still willing to re-consider, economic populist arguments registered best. For everyone else it's their connection with Trumpism.
Elsewhere, among 'Reform curious Lab voters' still willing to re-consider, economic populist arguments registered best. For everyone else it's their connection with Trumpism.
October 27, 2025 at 4:25 PM
The biggest reasons Labour/Green voters give for not voting Green are all tactical, not values based.
Elsewhere, among 'Reform curious Lab voters' still willing to re-consider, economic populist arguments registered best. For everyone else it's their connection with Trumpism.
Elsewhere, among 'Reform curious Lab voters' still willing to re-consider, economic populist arguments registered best. For everyone else it's their connection with Trumpism.
Meanwhile, Gen X is the only generation with a plurality that feel mugged by reality.
Possibly explains some of the disproportionate popularity of Reform, Trump etc with this cohort?
Possibly explains some of the disproportionate popularity of Reform, Trump etc with this cohort?
October 24, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Meanwhile, Gen X is the only generation with a plurality that feel mugged by reality.
Possibly explains some of the disproportionate popularity of Reform, Trump etc with this cohort?
Possibly explains some of the disproportionate popularity of Reform, Trump etc with this cohort?
Green party voters are the only voter group where a plurality say they have achieved less in life than they expected to when they were younger.
Happiness = reality - expectations!
Happiness = reality - expectations!
October 24, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Green party voters are the only voter group where a plurality say they have achieved less in life than they expected to when they were younger.
Happiness = reality - expectations!
Happiness = reality - expectations!
Another viewpoint on the same phenomenon
October 2, 2025 at 9:21 AM
Another viewpoint on the same phenomenon
All that years of anti-climate/environment invective on Conservative right has achieved so far is create a wedge within their own electoral coalition. Those switching from Con to Reform are anti Net Zero, those that have remained are pro.
Labour coalition meanwhile is basically unscathed.
Labour coalition meanwhile is basically unscathed.
October 2, 2025 at 9:12 AM
All that years of anti-climate/environment invective on Conservative right has achieved so far is create a wedge within their own electoral coalition. Those switching from Con to Reform are anti Net Zero, those that have remained are pro.
Labour coalition meanwhile is basically unscathed.
Labour coalition meanwhile is basically unscathed.