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Steve Akehurst

@steveakehurst.bsky.social

2.2K followers 550 following 450 posts

Politics, policy, public attitudes. Work in polling and comms. Director, Persuasion UK. ex- Shelter, civil service and various other things. 🏳️‍🌈 https://persuasionuk.org/about https://strongmessagehere.substack.com/

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · Jul 15

We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to?

Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want.

strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...

What messages might Reform be vulnerable to?

Exploring weaknesses in the Farage brand - an experiment.

strongmessagehere.substack.com

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Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Thomas J Wood @thomasjwood.bsky.social · 6d

The last time I posted the income relationship to presidential vote among White respondents to the @electionstudies.bsky.social ANES, people asked for additional estimates among all voters.

Updated estimates here:

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Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Duncan Robinson @duncanrobinson.bsky.social · 7d

No more hippy punching. Starmer decides to stop punching its own voters in the face www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Labour has decided to stop punching its own voters

Sir Keir Starmer has embraced peace and love of the party’s hippy base

www.economist.com

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Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Alex Press @alexnpress.bsky.social · 9d

wrote about a great writer thealexpress.substack.com/p/kaleb-horton

Kaleb Horton

Writing can be beautiful.

thealexpress.substack.com

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 6d

Younger voters far more pro preserving it than older too. Bit of an odd one.

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 6d

Another viewpoint on the same phenomenon

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 6d

All that years of anti-climate/environment invective on Conservative right has achieved so far is create a wedge within their own electoral coalition. Those switching from Con to Reform are anti Net Zero, those that have remained are pro.

Labour coalition meanwhile is basically unscathed.

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 7d

Hi Matt, fracking is deeply unpopular with voters - including working class voters - in this country. You might even call this a popularist position. Please bother learning the basics about a country you regularly pontificate about.

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 8d

Also a speech more reflective of the values of voters Labour has actually lost since 2024 - rather than the ones the media often imagine they’ve lost

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 8d

Decent speech overall. First time I’ve seen Starmer confidently articulate a values argument against Reform, not just a narrow competence one. Potentially important juncture.

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Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social · 10d

These are particularly critical points that should be much better understood, not just by the government but also by political commentators, journalists, and broadcast bookers.

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Wrath of God Bot @wrathofgodbot.bsky.social · 12d

In general the weird little clique of groypers, Anglo Futurists and other lunatics became quite influential because of three factors:

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 12d

turns out talking about industrial policy is less interesting to most of the lobby media than tylenol and autism. Who knew!

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 12d

Well yeh there’s that too! Perhaps the outline of a deal with Cons there where they don’t stand anyone in certain places

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 12d

All data here is
@persuasionuk.bsky.social via YouGov; let me know if you need any more info. End of thread!

Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 12d

So all in all, tactical voting will be huge part of next election - but persuasion matters hugely for Lab too. If it can't get Lab/Reform voters back in the tent, it has to build a different anti-Reform coalition (bringing in soft Cons/Greens/LDs) and hope the right is split.

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 12d

Crucially this 'squeeze swing' to Lab is less useful in Leave-voting seats, bc there's fewer progressive 3rd party voters there (& those that remain are stubborn!). Plus they're coming from further back. That said, v helpful in the many Blue Wall seats they won off Con! (also not discussed enough)

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 12d

This can work the other way, tho - many Lab seats have Con 2nd at GE24, but Reform ahead in MRPs.

Who do anti-Lab voters vote for absent a pact? Some chance they will be less switched on to local dynamics than anti-Reform voters (who are more engaged & used to tactical voting)

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 12d

But some really important caveats. Firstly, this is quite a crude squeeze question. Reality may be messier. In many areas, it may well not be true (or obvious) to voters that the choice is Labour or Reform. For instance, in Lab vs SNP or Lab vs Green seats.

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 12d

Labour claw this back largely by crushing other progressive parties and taking a slither of the Conservative vote. This is why keeping its left flank onside, and not trolling them for sport (as is sometimes Lab/SW1's wont), is really important!

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 12d

We probably don't talk about tactical voting enough.

In a recent poll, telling people it's Lab vs Reform in their area took national voting intention from a 12 point lead for Reform to +2 lead for Labour.

But - before Lab get too chipper - there's still quite a lot of uncertainty.

Quick 🧵 here!

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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 13d

Another piece of (excellent) research showing that support for the far-right is never going to be driven purely by either 'culture' or 'economics'. Inevitably, both are involved - and they're often inseparable.

Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 13d

Now out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. In our new article, @denis-cohen.bsky.social @thmskrr.bsky.social and I show that where local rent prices increase more, residents with lower incomes become more likely to support the radical right AfD.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

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Reposted by Steve Akehurst

Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 16d

I'll have more to say on Reform's proposals to scrap ILR at some point but for now I'll just note this - anyone telling you this is a popular idea doesn't know the polling. Overwhelming majority of public back giving people who work and pay taxes most or all rights after 5 years or less

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 16d

Devils advocate here but for all the talk of the Conservative election prowess, or Britain being a right wing country, the Tories one trick is consolidating right leaning voters while the left splinters under FPTP. Until it stopped working in 2024.

Only route to Reform victory is through same path.

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 16d

2015 is the exception fyi!

Left of centre = Lab, SDP/Lib Dem, Green, SNP, Plaid

Right of centre = Con, Reform, UKIP, BXP, BNP et al

Actually at a glance, if you code the old Liberals as left of centre (v defensible) the right’s record is 3 elections in 100 years (but needs double checking!).

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 16d

Fun fact: left-of-centre parties have won a higher % of the vote than right-of-centre parties in every UK general election in the last 45 years bar one.

Worth remembering in light of the British right’s continued ability to set the terms of debate even when not in office.

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