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Jeff Singer

@jeffsinger.bsky.social

2.9K followers 380 following 130 posts

Managing Editor at The Downballot. Email jeffsinger -at- the-downballot -dot- com

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · Apr 24

This took a ton of work, but as Robert Caro says, "It’s not about how long it takes to make. It’s about whether it will endure."

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · Apr 24

It's here! The Downballot is so stoked to share our calculations of the results of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts!

Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd

And much more in this 🧵 below!

The Downballot's calculations of presidential election results by congressional district, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics

Our one-of-a-kind collection spans from 2008 to the present

the-db.co

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 18h

Cuncle

Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 18h

(Reposted to clarify his group has only spent $7 million on ads, not only raised $7 million)

Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 18h

Kevin McCarthy told Republicans this summer he wanted to raise $100 million to stop California redistricting. So far he's absolutely *nowhere* near that goal. punchbowl.news/archive/1082...

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Reposted by Jeff Singer

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 1d

@malcolmkenyatta.bsky.social The Downballot wrote about the PA Supreme Court twice last month!

Morning Digest: Democrats have a wide spending edge in the battle for Pennsylvania's Supreme Court

But the richest man in the state could tip the balance with a single check

www.the-downballot.com

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 1d

Thank you! Credit to @davidnir.com for finding this one!

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 5d

A must read resource for why some states can redraw their maps with ease, and why it's not happening elsewhere.

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 5d

There's been a lot of confusion about which states could redraw their House maps before the midterms, so we've put together a definitive guide to every state that could actually do so—16 in all.

We explain the likelihood of new maps, probable targeted districts, and any obstacles to passage.

Here's every state that could draw a new congressional map by 2026

Most states can't pass new maps quickly—but those that can favor Republicans

www.the-downballot.com

Reposted by Jeff Singer

David Nir @davidnir.com · 7d

My annual PSA: What do you wish people observing Yom Kippur?

It's not a joyous day—it's a day of atonement and fasting. So "Have a happy holiday" is out.

*But* you can wish someone a happy new year (or "shana tova"), since this time of year is closely tied to Rosh Hashanah (the new year).

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 8d

Update: GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who just a month ago dismissed fears about the Medicaid cuts he voted for as "whining and bedwetting," is running for governor of Arizona.

Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · Aug 28

Good thing this guy isn't in a competitive seat and isn't thinking about running statewide ... oh wait, oh wait.

Arizona congressman defends Medicaid cuts after dismissing concerns as 'bedwetting'

Schweikert made the case that the reforms are the fiscally responsible thing to do and will help fix rising health care costs.

www.azcentral.com

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Reposted by Jeff Singer

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 9d

A bottom-feeding trash site called @bluedelaware.bsky.social was stealing our work all year. We noticed it today and called them on it. They hastily deleted lots of posts, but @archive.org saved some.

Sample stolen post: web.archive.org/web/20250627...

Ours: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

The Political Report – June 26, 2025

Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old self-identified democratic socialist, overcame massive opposition by New York City’s political establishment to thwart former Gov. Andrew Cuomo&#8217…

web.archive.org

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 9d

Tired: Donors wasting massive amounts on Kevin McCarthy's "Revenge Tour."

Wired: Donors not bothering to contribute to Kevin McCarthy's quest to stop California redistricting.

www.politico.com/newsletters/...

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Reposted by Jeff Singer

Quinn Yeargain @yeargain.bsky.social · 10d

pro tip for any candidate considering running:

if this happens, just make the plunge!

announce!

don't dither!

don't wait!

just fucking announce!

meet the moment!

look at Andy Kim's quick decision to announce his challenge of Bob Menendez as an example!

Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 10d

At this point, any Democrat who votes to keep this government open without extracting very serious concessions — RFK’s resignation, ICE rollback, Epstein Files release, etc — will absolutely face a primary challenger who will set fundraising records.

Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 10d

Republicans run the White House, Congress and Supreme Court on the principle that the only role Dems can play is bailing the GOP out from facing the consequences of their own actions.

They expect Dems to clean up after them and save them from voters’ blame, and sadly some Dems want to do just that.

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 14d

I asked ChatGPT a political news question, and it cited my own writing back to me.

Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 14d

I'm planning to go out of my way to visit his grave when I go to Albany next month. Not a joke.

Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 14d

My Trump Isn't Threatening To Cut Off Federal Funding If We Don't Pass a New Gerrymander shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt.

Braun says Trump administration has not threatened state's federal funding over redistricting - Indianapolis Business Journal

Still, Trump administration officials have been pushing Indiana Republicans to call a special session focused on redistricting. Most notably, Vice President J.D. Vance traveled to Indianapolis to spea...

www.ibj.com

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 15d

"That’s politics 101. You never look good wearing something on your head." --- Barack Obama, 2013.

NOTUS @notus.com · 15d

“We will not let Minnesota’s madness and Illinois’ insanity take over here in Wisconsin,” Rep. Tom Tiffany said in an announcement video.
www.notus.org/campaigns/re...

Rep. Tom Tiffany Jumps Into a Packed Wisconsin Governor’s Race

“We will not let Minnesota’s madness and Illinois’ insanity take over here in Wisconsin,” Tiffany said in an announcement video.

www.notus.org

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Reposted by Jeff Singer

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 15d

Georgia Democrats have their first notable candidate for secretary of state, which has become one of the most important offices in this swing state. Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who Trump told to "find 11,780 votes" to overturn Biden's victory, is leaving to run for governor.

Morning Digest: Democrats land first candidate in race to be Georgia's top elections official

A victory would break a GOP winning streak that goes back to 2006

www.the-downballot.com

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Reposted by Jeff Singer

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 22d

Hot off the presses: Former Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel has launched his campaign to become district attorney in Wake County, NC, a powerful post that has jurisdiction over political corruption cases involving lawmakers and state officials. www.the-downballot.com/i/173709722/...

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Reposted by Jeff Singer

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 23d

This is not right.

The Downballot makes tons of data available for free.

But when big-name pundits rip off our work without proper attribution or a link—to build up their followings and make money off us? That's bullshit.

This case is especially egregious, but this happens *all* the time.

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 28d

Another huge special election overperformance for Democrats last night, who are running 15.7% ahead of Harris this year in specials.

I'm resolving to be more constructive and less trolly in my engagement with the Bluesky audience. This is a topic where folks should consider the implications.

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Reposted by Jeff Singer

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 26d

National Republicans are trying to unseat a trio of Democratic justices to set off "a seismic momentum shift in Pennsylvania that would create an opening for more conservative policy victories in the state." The incumbents' allies are fighting back by focusing on abortion rights.

Morning Digest: GOP launches campaign to end Democratic control of Pennsylvania's top court

Three justices are up for retention this fall

www.the-downballot.com

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 28d

Josh Kraft's consultants after last night's 49-point beatdown against Boston Mayor Michelle Wu.

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Reposted by Jeff Singer

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29d

Accept no imitators! This is the one and only special elections Big Board from The Downballot!

There are still a few votes left in #VA11 but the vast majority have been tallied. Dem James Walkinshaw is winning by 50 in a Harris+34 district, so a 16-point overperformance—right at the average.

The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle

docs.google.com

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Reposted by Jeff Singer

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29d

Hot off the presses: State Rep. James Talarico, who has become of the most prominent Democrats in Texas, launches his long-awaited campaign for the U.S. Senate.

Morning Digest: One of the best-known Democrats in Texas launches a bid for Senate

Joe Rogan loves this lawmaker and aspiring preacher. Will voters feel the same way?

www.the-downballot.com

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Reposted by Jeff Singer

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · Sep 6

serious question. does no one know anything anymore? you're saying the people you hate on bluesky are of the same type as the ones that produced the democratic wipeouts in the 1980s? you know, when the democratic party still had a conservative southern wing and strong support from white ethnics?

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · Sep 5

Oregon state Rep. Cyrus Javadi announces he's leaving the Republican Party and will seek reelection next year as a Democrat. Javadi's party switch comes after he provided the crucial vote to pass Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek's package to fund road maintenance.

Oregon state Rep. Cyrus Javadi switches political teams, registers as a Democrat

The move comes after Javadi took a tax vote this week that infuriated some Republicans.

www.opb.org

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · Sep 5

Polling the candidates who are actually running should not be a high bar to clear, but this conservative firm faceplants repeatedly in their New Jersey survey. newjerseyglobe.com/governor/pol...

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