Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by Joseph Hefner

Nate Tice @natetice.bsky.social · 6h

Tyquan Thornton's routes this year

5 6 100

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 7h

Damn. Was filtering some teams out, for reasons, and forgot to remove that filter. Here's the updated version!! Miami is one of 13 teams under 1%!! But they're not the bottom team!

bsky.app/profile/jose...

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 7h

*Updated with all the teams this time!*

Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?

Bills still leading, but lost 3 percentage points
Lions gained 2.5
Eagles lost 2.1
Chiefs gained 0.5, despite losing to the Jags

There are 13(!!) teams with Super Bowl odds under 1%. We are 5 weeks into the season.

1

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 7h

*Updated with all the teams this time!*

Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?

Bills still leading, but lost 3 percentage points
Lions gained 2.5
Eagles lost 2.1
Chiefs gained 0.5, despite losing to the Jags

There are 13(!!) teams with Super Bowl odds under 1%. We are 5 weeks into the season.

3

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 7h

Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?

Bills still leading, but lost 3 percentage points
Lions gained 2.5
Eagles lost 2.1
Chiefs gained 0.5, despite losing to the Jags

1 1

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 10h

NFC Edition!

Wow, the NFC has been crazy this year!! Lions started off as the 15th ranked team, and now are 4th!
Commanders with a rough fall, but back on the upswing.
Seahawks with some nice movement too!

1

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 10h

Ever wanted to see how conference seeding changes on a week-to-week basis? Well, here you go!

AFC Edition

Steelers, Jags, and Chiefs with some wild movement.

2 4

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 10h

Now *this* is what analytics is all about!!!

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 11h

The New York Jets are the last winless team, as they've somehow underperformed their rock-bottom expectations. Their season is stone-cold dead. Their playoff odds are down to 2.1% on FTN.

2.1% isn't zero, though! What might that 2.1% look like?

A theoretical AFC scenario which has the Jets making the playoffs at 10-7.

2

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 10h

Hey @doug-analytics.bsky.social!! You see this?!! There's still a chance!!

1 1

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 10h

Built this one back in the good ol' days when participation data was free! It was defunct for awhile until @ftnfantasy.com put out their charted all-22 participation data.

It's a lot of information all in one graphic.

3

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 11h

Defense!

Nohl Williams goes in on 6 DB snaps almost exclusively this season, and certainly in this game. All were 3rd downs and presumably long.

CRW replaced Hicks for a drive, and Cook for two drives. Only got 2 total second half snaps.

I'm not seeing any meaningful patterns in the DL snaps.

2

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 11h

Week 5 KC @ JAX Pillboxes!

Basically, if Brashard Smith is in, he's getting the ball.
Pacheco remains a 1st and 2nd down back.

Did you all realize the Chiefs 4th quarter go ahead TD drive didn't have any 3rd downs? Also, three 3 TE sets in a row.

No 6 OT snaps this game.

2 4

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 13h

He got bumped, for sure, but that ball had left his hands prior to the bump...

Reposted by Joseph Hefner

Ben Baldwin @rbsdm.com · 13h

Week 5 Objective NFL Power Rankings

If your power ranking doesn't still have the Chiefs in the top 5, are you even trying?

(note: Rams too high here because they play the no-Lamar Ravens next)

4 3 38

Reposted by Joseph Hefner

Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 17h

Bengals chances to make the playoffs according to FPI moved from 9% yesterday with Jake Browning to 9% today with Joe Flacco.

3 2 67

Reposted by Joseph Hefner

Ben Baldwin @rbsdm.com · 1d

Series conversion rates on offense and defense

1 1 12

Reposted by Joseph Hefner

Ben Baldwin @rbsdm.com · 1d

The rate at which each offense takes a 1st & 10 and earns a new set of downs (or scores)

I still believe in the Kansas City Chiefs

3 1 18

Reposted by Joseph Hefner

Ben Baldwin @rbsdm.com · 1d

How often teams are calling pass plays on early downs when the game is close

2 3 15

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

He's the Chiefs primary slot defender, too. Has been every week this season. This post has Chiefs coverage alignments vs Jags receiver alignments.

Why they continue to use him in a position he does not seem to thrive in is a mystery to me.

bsky.app/profile/jose...

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Chiefs continue to put Chamarri Conner as their primary slot defender.

Here's the Chiefs coverage alignments and the Jags pass catcher alignment. Travis Hunter played 63% of his 30 pass snaps in the slot.

Conner gave up one big play to Hunter, a 44 yard completion.

1 4

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Chiefs continue to put Chamarri Conner as their primary slot defender.

Here's the Chiefs coverage alignments and the Jags pass catcher alignment. Travis Hunter played 63% of his 30 pass snaps in the slot.

Conner gave up one big play to Hunter, a 44 yard completion.

1 3

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Verified these numbers after PFF finished their game updates. They all stayed the same, so they're not preliminary numbers any more, they're official.

1

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Defense:

Nohl Williams got 4 snaps. He had been trending up every week until MNF.

Chamarri Conner has missed exactly one snap on defense, in week 1. Perhaps this should change.

Cook with his highest usage since week 2.

Danna with 18 snaps in his first game back.

1

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Chiefs weekly offensive snap counts

Worthy led the WR room in snaps. Then JuJu, Brown, then Thornton.

Pacheco with his highest snap share (62%), though not his highest snap count (40 in week 3 as well)

Brashard Smith looked incredibly electric on all 6 (WTF?!!) of his snaps.

1 1

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

The efficiency numbers for the Chiefs were good last night. But look at the massive difference in passing EPA if I remove the three turnovers (Mahomes pick 6, Lawrence INT and fumble).

First pic is actual numbers. Second is without the turnovers.

KC Passing: 0.065 😬
KC Passing no INT: 0.383 🤯

3

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Note: PFF Stats/grades are still under review for MNF. These are preliminary numbers.

1 1

Joseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 1d

Per PFF:
Pass Rush Win %:
Karlaftis: 21.4% (31 pass rush snaps)
Chenal: 14.3% (7)
Gillotte: 7.1% (17)
Jones: 6.7% (34)
Omenihu: 4.8% (24)

2 1