Joshua Schwartz
@joshschwartz.bsky.social
150 followers 160 following 21 posts
Assistant Professor of Int'l Relations at Carnegie Mellon University | PhD at UPenn | Former Fellow at Harvard & MIT | I study things that go boom joshuaaschwartz.com
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joshschwartz.bsky.social
The file drawer problem and reviewer bias against null effects is real, but we should try and fight against it as a discipline. Non-findings can teach us just as much as significant findings! t.co/Q9BqPYoTGc
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2426937122
t.co
joshschwartz.bsky.social
Really grateful for @environmentalpol.bsky.social
shortlisting my co-authored piece on fossil fuel divestment and public opinion for the best article of the year award. Check it out for an example of a published paper that finds null effects
Reposted by Joshua Schwartz
intsecurity.bsky.social
***Announcement***

The Summer 2025 issue is online!

Read articles by @drsarahphillips.bsky.social and Daniel Tower; @daveckang.bsky.social‬, Jackie S. H. Wong, and @zenobiachan.bsky.social; Wu Riqiang; Nick Anderson and Daryl Press; and Henrik Hiim and Øystein Tunsjø

direct.mit.edu/isec/issue
Volume 50 Issue 1 | International Security | MIT Press
direct.mit.edu
Reposted by Joshua Schwartz
🚨 It’s publication day!

THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.

When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.

Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

shorturl.at/qa4T5
The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press
The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu
Reposted by Joshua Schwartz
gametheory101.bsky.social
I sat down with @joshschwartz.bsky.social to discuss a bunch of big issues with drones: the frontlines in Ukraine, Russian targeting of Ukrainian cities, Operation Spiderweb, the Israel-Iran War, and U.S. investment decisions on drones.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Femj...
Asymmetric Challenge: Stalemates, Strikes, and Strategy in the Age of Drones (Feat. Joshua Schwartz)
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
www.youtube.com
joshschwartz.bsky.social
And you can find the syllabus with readings and assignments here: www.joshuaaschwartz.com/uploads/1/3/...
www.joshuaaschwartz.com
Reposted by Joshua Schwartz
foreignaffairs.com
“If the Pentagon does not adjust to the new realities of warfare, it will lose the ability to deter adversaries’ aggression before it occurs—and perhaps the ability to win wars,” warn @mchorowitz.bsky.social‬, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and @joshschwartz.bsky.social.
What Drones Can—and Cannot—Do on the Battlefield
The Pentagon should learn from Israel and Ukraine.
www.foreignaffairs.com
joshschwartz.bsky.social
What does the Israel-Iran War / Russia-Ukraine War suggest about emerging tech and the future of warfare? Excited to have a new @foreignaffairs.com article w/ @mchorowitz.bsky.social + @laurenakahn.bsky.social on how to bring balance to the (military) force www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
What Drones Can—and Cannot—Do on the Battlefield
The Pentagon should learn from Israel and Ukraine.
www.foreignaffairs.com
joshschwartz.bsky.social
A deal that allowed Iran to enrich at low levels domestically but had longer-term restrictions on their nuke program than the JCPOA would’ve been a much more sustainable + less risky solution. But ostensibly Trump made enrichment a red line in negotiations, which I think was the key mistake (3/3)
joshschwartz.bsky.social
The US and Israeli strikes will increase the incentives for Iran to try and acquire a nuke for deterrence, and the attack is only a temporary setback (albeit a big one) for their program (2/3)
joshschwartz.bsky.social
So many questions about this attack, but one big one—Where is the highly-enriched uranium Iran had already produced?? Was it destroyed? If not, that seems like a huge problem for preventing Iran from getting a nuke in the short to medium term. There’s also a long-term issue with the attack (1/3)
Reposted by Joshua Schwartz
joshschwartz.bsky.social
What explains the dramatic swings in US foreign policy we're seeing? Besides a democratic peace, I argue in a new co-authored @apsa-preprints.bsky.social that there is also a Right-Wing Peace and a Left-Wing Peace. Come for the experiments and stay for the MIDs analysis go.shr.lc/4jucw6O
The Left-Wing Peace & The Right-Wing Peace
How strong is the nexus between domestic and international politics? The democratic peace contends that democracies do not fight interstate wars against each other. We argue there is also a “left-wing...
go.shr.lc
Reposted by Joshua Schwartz
joshschwartz.bsky.social
Does politics stop at the water's edge? Nope! Dom Tierney and I argue in a new @apsa-preprints.bsky.social working paper that domestic left-right divisions over culture war issues like immigration and LGBTQ rights are bleeding over into foreign policy. Read more below
apsa-preprints.bsky.social
New submission to APSA Preprints: The Left-Wing Peace & The Right-Wing Peace

Check it out here: https://dx.doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2025-pq9zd?rft_dat=source%3Ddrss
joshschwartz.bsky.social
Does politics stop at the water's edge? Nope! Dom Tierney and I argue in a new @apsa-preprints.bsky.social working paper that domestic left-right divisions over culture war issues like immigration and LGBTQ rights are bleeding over into foreign policy. Read more below
apsa-preprints.bsky.social
New submission to APSA Preprints: The Left-Wing Peace & The Right-Wing Peace

Check it out here: https://dx.doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2025-pq9zd?rft_dat=source%3Ddrss
joshschwartz.bsky.social
What explains the dramatic swings in US foreign policy we're seeing? Besides a democratic peace, I argue in a new co-authored @apsa-preprints.bsky.social that there is also a Right-Wing Peace and a Left-Wing Peace. Come for the experiments and stay for the MIDs analysis go.shr.lc/4jucw6O
The Left-Wing Peace & The Right-Wing Peace
How strong is the nexus between domestic and international politics? The democratic peace contends that democracies do not fight interstate wars against each other. We argue there is also a “left-wing...
go.shr.lc
Reposted by Joshua Schwartz
apsa-preprints.bsky.social
New submission to APSA Preprints: The Left-Wing Peace & The Right-Wing Peace

Check it out here: https://dx.doi.org/10.33774/apsa-2025-pq9zd?rft_dat=source%3Ddrss