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Kyle Marquardt

@kailmarkvart.bsky.social

930 followers 900 following 110 posts

Professor, @sampol.bsky.social; Project Manager, @vdeminstitute.bsky.social; Iowan; klmarquardt.com

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Kyle Marquardt @kailmarkvart.bsky.social · Aug 26

Excited to introduce a new working paper with @danpemstein.com, @chknutsen.bsky.social and other colleagues not on Bluesky! We use experimental and observational data to investigate the degree to which general biases affect expert perceptions of specific cases. 🧵 1/17 v-dem.net/media/public...

Title: Global Trends and Expert Perceptions: Pessimism and the Assessment of Democratic Backsliding.

Abstract There are longstanding concerns about biases in expert-coded data. Here we attempt to causally identify the effect of these biases, specifically evaluating the claim that pessimism about global democracy affects expert coding of democracy locally in specific countries. Observational analyses of data from an original survey of experts demonstrate that perceptions of global and local democratic trends are indeed correlated. However, an embedded experiment yields no evidence of a causal effect of perceptions of global democracy trends on perceptions of local trends. Moreover, we find little evidence that pessimism about global trends substantially affects actual coding behavior with regard to specific countries. Together, these results alleviate some concerns about expert biases both in widely-used measures of democracy and more broadly.

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Isabelle DeSisto 🇺🇦 @isadesisto.bsky.social · 2d

Check out my new piece on Moldovan 🇲🇩 elections with @grigopop.bsky.social

Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 4d

Despite Russian meddling, Moldova’s pro-Europe party wins a majority.

Russia’s social media campaign fell short.

Read: goodauthority.org/news/despite...

Despite Russian meddling, Moldova’s pro-Europe party wins a majority

Russia’s social media campaign fell short.

goodauthority.org

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Daniel Knowles @dlknowles.bsky.social · 3d

I visited the apartment building ICE raided on Tuesday today. Story to come, but you can walk right in. Half of the apartments have no doors on them. Children's stuff abandoned in some flats. *Citizen* residents told me they were arrested and held for hours in zipties. This is America

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Department of Comparative Politics UiB @sampol.bsky.social · 6d

Klart for Sampolkonferansen 2025 og geopolitisk spenning i en usikker tid. Organisert av våre dyktige masterstudenter 🙌

Konferansen fyller 40 år i år! Slik bygges akademiske tradisjoner og positivt omdømme 👏👏👏

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 6d

🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...

-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017

Full thread of results below

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Grigore Pop-Eleches @grigopop.bsky.social · 9d

Moldovan voters have given the pro-EU PAS (of President Maia Sandu) a narrow but clear parliamentary majority, despite Russia hybrid warfare tactics. Let's hope that the planned opposition protests are not a foil for even more aggressive Russian tactics.

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Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com · 10d

Przeworski says it cleanly, clearly, and convincingly.

What then must we do?

www.dissentmagazine.org/article/how-...

The Democratic establishment is clearly betting that Republicans will offer them an electoral victory while they attend the wedding parties of billionaires. The only vision for the Democratic Party originates from its left wing, which is vigorously censured by its mainstream. It may well be that the Democratic leadership is correct in thinking that the best strategy is to do nothing and waiting for MAGA to fail. But this, like MAGA, is a “back again” ideology, one of “restoring” democracy rather than transforming the conditions that generated the present disaster. To restore democracy, it needs to be reformed. This is the project we need.

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Governance and Local Development Institute @gldinstitute.bsky.social · 13d

CALL FOR PROPOSALS | Open Worldwide 🌍

9th Annual GLD Conference

📍 Aspenäs Herrgård, Gothenburg, Sweden
📅 June 10-12, 2026
🎯 Theme: "Participation and Decision-Making: Studies on Citizen Engagement and Mobilization in Local Governance"

Apply Here: bit.ly/4gxyjdO

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Paul Goode @jpaulgoode.bsky.social · 15d

Important section of the latest CPCS, dedicated to the challenges of “emergency response research” by Ukrainian and Polish researchers following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Communist and Post-Communist Studies @cpcs.bsky.social · 16d

The September issue is now online! Featuring a special section on "Emergency Response Research and Documentation in Comparative Perspective," with guest ed.s Natalia Otrishchenko and Anna Wylegała

The section draws on the experience of Polish and Ukrainian research teams following Feb 2022.
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Table of Contents for September issue of Communist and Post-Communist Studies

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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 15d

I push back against doomsaying and defeatism because, first, it’s misleadingly false, and second, the false belief makes it more likely to come true.

That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to worry about. It means don’t deny successful societal resistance and grant him power he doesn’t have.

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Jeremy Berg @jeremymberg.bsky.social · 15d

Now with comments... Lots of comments

(A long thread)

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Jeremy Berg @jeremymberg.bsky.social · 16d

Posting without comment...

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/22/o...

Opinion | ‘The Power of Science to Solve Problems Is Almost Limitless’

www.nytimes.com

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Barry Burden @bcburden.bsky.social · 24d

My department @uwmadison.bsky.social is hiring an assistant professor with expertise in environmental politics. Send us your application. jobs.wisc.edu/jobs/assista...

Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science - Madison, Wisconsin, United States

Current Employees: If you are currently employed at any of the Universities of Wisconsin, log in to Workday to apply through the internal application process.Job Category:FacultyEmployment Type:Regula...

jobs.wisc.edu

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Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 21d

I'm looking for some good example articles that sort of announce or release datasets. Specifically this in the area of comparative politics. Any suggestions?

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Kyle Marquardt @kailmarkvart.bsky.social · 21d

The V-Indoc folks (led by @anjaneundorf.bsky.social) did an amazing job…

Varieties of Indoctrination: The Politicization of Education and the Media around the World | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core

Varieties of Indoctrination: The Politicization of Education and the Media around the World - Volume 22 Issue 3

doi.org

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Alexander Hudson @aehudson.bsky.social · 22d

You can find the report here: interactive.idea.int/gsod-2025
I'd be glad to hear what you think about it.

The Global State of Democracy 2025

The Global State of Democracy 2025 report from International IDEA

interactive.idea.int

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Alexander Hudson @aehudson.bsky.social · 22d

As you've likely heard, today is the International Day of Democracy. A good day to read a report about the Global State of Democracy? I know that can seem like a herculean labour one would rather walk past.

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Mikael Persson @professormpersson.bsky.social · Sep 3

New paper with Anders Sundell published in West European Politics: Ideological bias in policy implementation: public opinion and policy outcomes in 43 democracies www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Ideological bias in policy implementation: public opinion and policy outcomes in 43 democracies

Previous research has documented a conservative bias in politicians’ perceptions of public opinion. Do similar biases also exist in policy implementation, relative to public opinion? In this articl...

www.tandfonline.com

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 24d

OK Sunday 8 am is not the best panel time. I get it.

BUT tomorrow I'm presenting idealstan alongside 3 other banger papers on ideal points & measurement modeling.

You want to know the latest & greatest in quantitative measurement, this is it.

West 120 @ 8 am 🫡

#apsa2025

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Governor JB Pritzker @govpritzker.illinois.gov · Sep 6

The President of the United States is threatening to go to war with an American city.

This is not a joke. This is not normal.

Donald Trump isn't a strongman, he's a scared man. Illinois won’t be intimidated by a wannabe dictator.

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Byunghwan 'Ben' Son @textvulture.bsky.social · Sep 2

For those who still follow the debate. #vdem

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Marianne Dahl @mariannedahl.bsky.social · Aug 29

📊 New dataset and paper alert!
We’re proud to launch the Opposition Movements and Groups (OMG) Dataset, 1789–2019: a global dataset covering 1,452 mass mobilization movements. It was just published in Comparative Political Studies. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Below follows a 🧵

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Demscore @demscore.bsky.social · Aug 29

🏛️ Today is the last day of #ecprgc25 in Thessaloniki, and your last chance to come by the #DEMSCORE booth in the Exhibition area of the Law Building.

If you do, you could f ex find out more about a useful DEMSCORE #DataHack👇
#Polisky #PoliSciSky #SocialScience #CompSocialScience
@ecpr.bsky.social

Demscore @demscore.bsky.social · Aug 26

This week #DEMSCORE is at the #ECPR General Conference 2025, at Aristotle University of Thessaloniki.
The DEMSCORE team will be available throughout the conference at our booth in the Exhibition area of the Law Building.
A virtual booth is accessible via the event app: ecpr.eu/app
#ecprgc25 #PoliSky

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V-Dem Institute @vdeminstitute.bsky.social · Aug 27

❓Are expert’s pessimism about global democracy affecting their coding of democracy locally, and thus greatly inflating estimates of global democratic backsliding?
Find out in the new V-Dem Working Paper: v-dem.net/media/public...
❗Spoiler alert for 🎞️ and 🧵
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#PoliSciSky #Polisky #ExpertCoding

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V-Dem Institute @vdeminstitute.bsky.social · Aug 27

Download “Global Trends and Expert Perceptions: Pessimism and the Assessment of Democratic Backsliding”: v-dem.net/media/public...
By @kailmarkvart.bsky.social, @danpemstein.com , Brigitte Seim, John Gerring, @chknutsen.bsky.social, and Yunus Orhan
#Democracy #ExpertCodedData #DemocracyData
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v-dem.net

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Kyle Marquardt @kailmarkvart.bsky.social · Aug 27

Paging @joengene.bsky.social...

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Kyle Marquardt @kailmarkvart.bsky.social · Aug 26

tl;dr Although there is a relationship between perceptions of global democracy trends and perceptions of local democracy, there is little evidence that this relationship is causal or that it meaningfully drives expert coding behavior. 17/17

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