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Karl Whelan

@karlwhelan.bsky.social

1.8K followers 660 following 160 posts

Professor of Economics, University College Dublin. www.karlwhelan.com has research, teaching materials, stuff on the ECB and even a few old blog posts. Remember them? Currently doing research on betting and prediction markets and some macro things.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Nov 20

You can find out more about me at karlwhelan.com

My research is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...

Teaching materials on macroeconomics and money and banking at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...

My work on ECB monetary policy for the European Parliament is at
karlwhelan.com/blog/?page_i...

Karl Whelan | Economist, University College Dublin

karlwhelan.com

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 4d

5 radical things to do about housing, none of which would get a single house built. Comical.

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...

Lorcan Sirr: The five things Ireland must do to help fix housing

Introduce a residency requirement, change the legal definition of ‘rent’ and start counting bed spaces

www.irishtimes.com

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 5d

Now it's being framed as "saving jobs". The country is at full employment. Letting restaurants earn bigger profits won't create a single new job - if they more hire people, they will just take them from elsewhere. And the measure is hugely expensive. An awful policy. And I suspect Paschal knows it.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 5d

Ireland's VAT cut for hospitality business is a great example of how politics and lobbying triumphs over economics. Never something anyone considered before Covid, but once they saw it could be done, the restaurant sector fought like hell to get it brought back.

www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...

Paschal Donohoe confirms no personal tax changes to be made in budget

Minister for Finance says focus will be on tax measures that keep jobs in the country and enhance Ireland’s competitiveness

www.irishtimes.com

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Reposted by Karl Whelan

Noah Williams @bellmanequation.bsky.social · 13d

Routine for every class now:
- sign out previous person who used the system
- sign in to AV system computer
- verify sign-in with authenticator on phone
- wait for phone face ID to recognize
- wait for AV system computer to load
- kill Microsoft Teams auto-launch
- sign in to course system web page

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 21d

"The appointment is expected to be well received internally at the IMF"

Funny.

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 21d

Being a co-founder of a global macro fund with no less a personage than Stephen Miran gets you in the door to be deputy managing director of the IMF these days I see. www.ft.com/content/1209...

Scott Bessent’s chief of staff set to move to IMF

Dan Katz expected to become second to fund chief Kristalina Georgieva

www.ft.com

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 23d

I bet the Bank is super careful about its budget for tea and biscuits because "public money dear boy ..." but somehow they think it's fine to implement their main policy in a way that is unnecessarily expensive for the taxpayer.

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 23d

The real policy issue here is left to the final sentence. There is no monetary policy rationale to pay interest on all reserves to banks. Tiering works perfectly well. Whatever the rationale for their current approach is, it's not about the need to set short-term market rates appropriately.

Daniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 23d

it's Monday, another day when Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, enjoys fiscal powers nobody gave him, and uses them against the government

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Bank of England urged to slow bond-selling plan to help cut record UK borrowing costs

Ex-MPC members say ‘quantitative tightening’ should be scaled back or halted entirely, saving the Treasury up to £10bn a year

www.theguardian.com

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 23d

Yep. I'm well aware he was a terrible guy. Deleted the post to stop this kind of nonsense being in my messages.

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26d

One person's logical fallacies and invalid arguments are another person's "common sense". I didn't like the guy at all. I just thought the reaction to Ezra's piece wasn't fully justified.

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26d

Yep. I wasn't a fan.

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 26d

These ideas go way beyond one guy and those young minds are exposed to them everywhere. Ezra's point - "Liberalism could use more of his moxie and fearlessness" - is these ideas need to be challanged with the same energy with which they are being promoted.

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 27d

I will also point out that I don’t post much here but I made the Hitler analogy in response to an article by Simon Jenkins praising Trump. But because it was Trump not guys like Kirk.

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 27d

Ok, but I didn't make the argument about Hitler, did I? Sorry I replied tbh. Too old for this shit.

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 27d

He said lots of stuff that was obviously wrong but people who live in a bubble of self-feeding disinformation usually really belive the nonsense they spout is correct. I suspect he rarely believed he was outright lying. And while he added to the division, he was more a symptom than a cause.

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 27d

Congratulations on the Godwin's law in one step contribution. This guy literally was not Hitler.

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 29d

I gave up after writing this and then seeing the exact same discussion a year later. I'm out of the UK fiscal commentary business.

karlwhelan.com/blog/?p=2132

On the UK’s Fiscal Black Hole | Karl Whelan

karlwhelan.com

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · 29d

When it’s annual black hole season, you’ve gotta do the black hole thing. It’s a modern British cultural tradition.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Aug 18

So guys selling donuts & hotdogs outside a shopping centre is "prohibiting the making of a space dedicated to pedestrians and the general public” and stops it acting "as a distinct focal point" Planning-person brain on steroids. No wonder nothing ever gets done

www.irishtimes.com/business/202...

Dundrum Town Centre owners appeal council refusal for outdoor food concessions

Local residents cited concerns around fire safety as well as ‘serious health, hygiene, and safety risks'

www.irishtimes.com

Reposted by Karl Whelan

Steven Durlauf @durlauf.bsky.social · Aug 3

1/Kevin Hassett had long ago discredited himself as a scholar by parroting claims about the economy he knew to be false. Even so, parroting the lie about rigged statistics, is a new low. The academy should ostracize him the same way a fabricator of research should be ostracized.

NBC News @nbcnews.com · Aug 3

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett defends President Trump’s decision to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as well as the president’s claim that weaker-than-expected jobs reports were “rigged,” but failed to produce any evidence to support Trump’s claim.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett defends Trump's firing of labor statistics head

In an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press," Hassett called for a "fresh set of eyes" at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

nbcnews.to

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Aug 2

Jenkins’s relentless commitment to being the worst Guardian columnist of all time gets taken to new levels. Airs of “Sure Adolf might be a bit of a rum bloke but look at the lovely architecture…”

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · Aug 2

In which Simon Jenkins praises that rare aesthetic sensitivity of Donald Trump!
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

He may talk rubbish but Trump has an eye for beauty, and that is a breath of fresh air | Simon Jenkins

The US president promotes classical architecture and loathes ‘ugly’ wind turbines. Keir Starmer would dismiss him as a nimby, but on this Trump has a point, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

www.theguardian.com

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Aug 1

And yet this is somehow actually worse. Would it have killed someone from UCD HR to sit in front of a camera for 3 minutes and read a script?

Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Aug 1

Ah, look, my university has decided to get a scary AI robot to tell me that doing research, admin and teaching preparation from home (which I've done forever) is apparently a "hybrid" arrangement that I need to fill out a form to get approval for.

www.ucd.ie/hr/a-z/hybri...

Faculty - UCD Human Resources

UCD Hybrid Working Policy, Overview of hybrid working for faculty. A summary of the Policy, definitions and key principles, a process outline and FAQ.

www.ucd.ie

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Jul 19

Two bottom lines.

- Don't accept offers on prediction markets. If you want to have any chance of making money, you have to make the offers.

- Don't buy low-priced contracts. And there is some evidence you can make money offering them.

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Jul 19

Lately, I've been working on betting and prediction markets. Here's a working paper on this topic written with two UCD colleagues -- it is (AFAIK) the only systematic analysis of the prices on the Kalshi prediction market. We're still in pre-submission mode so comments\critiques welcome.

www.ucd.ie

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Karl Whelan @karlwhelan.bsky.social · Jul 13

Basically, yes. The money came from DAZN who seem to have got the money from Saudi.

www.theguardian.com/football/202...

Uncontested: Dazn’s $1bn story reveals why the Club World Cup is really here

Saudi-backed streaming superpower’s broadcasting deal for Fifa’s global project is the next expansionist step towards a world super league

www.theguardian.com

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