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Lukas Warode

@lwarode.bsky.social

290 followers 350 following 29 posts

Political Science PhD Student, University of Mannheim. Dissertation: How political elites view and semantically associate the ideological labels “left” and “right” across the political spectrum. lwarode.github.io

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Reposted by Lukas Warode

Tanise Ceron @taniseceron.bsky.social · 9d

📣 New Preprint!
Have you ever wondered what the political content in LLM's training data is? What are the political opinions expressed? What is the proportion of left- vs right-leaning documents in the pre- and post-training data? Do they correlate with the political biases reflected in models?

Reposted by Lukas Warode

Jamie Cummins @jamiecummins.bsky.social · 20d

Can large language models stand in for human participants?
Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research.

One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want.

THREAD 🧵

The threat of analytic flexibility in using large language models to simulate human data: A call to attention

Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. How...

Reposted by Lukas Warode

Joachim Baumann @joachimbaumann.bsky.social · 26d

🚨 New paper alert 🚨 Using LLMs as data annotators, you can produce any scientific result you want. We call this **LLM Hacking**.

Paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2509.08825

$We present our new preprint titled "Large Language Model Hacking: Quantifying the Hidden Risks of Using LLMs for Text Annotation". We quantify LLM hacking risk through systematic replication of 37 diverse computational social science annotation tasks. For these tasks, we use a combined set of 2,361 realistic hypotheses that researchers might test using these annotations. Then, we collect 13 million LLM annotations across plausible LLM configurations. These annotations feed into 1.4 million regressions testing the hypotheses. For a hypothesis with no true effect (ground truth $p > 0.05$), different LLM configurations yield conflicting conclusions. Checkmarks indicate correct statistical conclusions matching ground truth; crosses indicate LLM hacking -- incorrect conclusions due to annotation errors. Across all experiments, LLM hacking occurs in 31-50\% of cases even with highly capable models. Since minor configuration changes can flip scientific conclusions, from correct to incorrect, LLM hacking can be exploited to present anything as statistically significant.$

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Aug 26

Implications for political behaviour, communication, and representation are manifold, as 'left' and 'right' are central categories in polarised public discourse – which is particularly evident in pejorative usage, such as labelling political opponents as 'racist' or 'socialist'.

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Aug 26

Both in- and out-ideological associations are externally validated by serving as seed words to scale parliamentary speeches. The resulting ideal points reflect party ideology across different specifications in the German Bundestag.

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Aug 26

The mapping is based on associations from open-ended survey responses in German candidate surveys. Words are mapped into a semantic space using word embeddings and weighted by frequency. Construct validity is ensured by using alternative embeddings and frequency weightings.

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Aug 26

Words associated with both left and the right are mapped to the semantic centre, where connotations can vary: 'freedom' has a positive connotation (it is primarily used by the respective in-group to describe left and the right), while 'politics' has a rather neutral connotation.

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Aug 26

This framework yields associations that are driven by positive (in-ideology) and negative (out-ideology) associations. Examples: 'justice' (left) and 'patriotism' (right) are in-ideological associations; 'socialism' (left) and 'racism' (right) are out-ideological associations.

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Aug 26

Left and right are essential poles in political discourse. We know little about how they are associated across the spectrum. I propose a 2-dimensional model that accounts for both semantics – is a term left or right – and position – are associations coming from the left or right.

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Aug 26

My 2nd dissertation paper is out in @nature.com Humanities and Social Sciences Communications: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

I study and explore how associations with 'left' and 'right' vary systematically by semantic and political position.

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Aug 25

Ja, die goldene Twitterzeit ist leider over

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Aug 25

youtu.be/4VTBMznLrWs?...

Sitcom Laugh Track

YouTube video by SamGordonRHK

Reposted by Lukas Warode

Constantin Wurthmann @wurthmann.bsky.social · Aug 13

📢 New Publication Alert!
Our (@msaeltzer.bsky.social)
latest article, "Issue congruence between candidates' Twitter communication and constituencies in an MMES: Migration as an exemplary case", has just been published in Parliamentary Affairs.
academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...

Reposted by Lukas Warode

Oscar Stuhler @oms279.bsky.social · Aug 7

Now out in Social Networks

Network analysis aspires to be “anticategorical,” yet its basic units—relationships—are usually readily categorized ('friendship,' 'love'). Thus, a nontrivial cultural typification is asserted in the very building blocks of most network analyses.

doi.org/10.1016/j.so...

Title and abstract of the paper.

Reposted by Lukas Warode

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · Jul 22

Calling all parliaments experts!
Say there's a debate in parliament, and a related vote. How frequently would these be on different days? different weeks? I don't mean different readings of bills, because these will also have different debates.
@sgparliaments.bsky.social #polisky #parlisky

a cartoon character from south park says " i m gonna need your help "

ALT: a cartoon character from south park says " i m gonna need your help "

media.tenor.com

Reposted by Lukas Warode

Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · Jul 10

Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️

Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.

#Democracy #PoliticalScience

🧵

url: osf.io/usqdb_v2

Reposted by Lukas Warode

Claire Burchett @cburchett.bsky.social · Jul 7

Happy to share my first published article based on my PhD in Party Politics with @journals.sagepub.com in open access!

doi.org/10.1177/1354...

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Jul 10

Congrats, that is very interesting and great work! I work on something similar, but from a broader ideological perspective, in other words how ideological associations are asymmetrically used across the spectrum. Your work adds strong particular evidence for my overall argument, happy to see that!

Reposted by Lukas Warode

Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · Jul 9

Local reactions to wolf attacks in Germany are not powerful enough to influence the election decisions of many voters www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting

The resurgence of wolves in Germany has sparked intense debate, particularly in rural areas where wolf attacks on livestock are frequent. Prior resear…

www.sciencedirect.com

Reposted by Lukas Warode

Reto Mitteregger @indubioproreto.bsky.social · Jul 9

Quite a strong final statement: "Descriptive research is important and it is a pity that the general obsession with causal estimates disincentivizes researchers from attempting to publish careful and detailed description."

Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · Jul 9

Local reactions to wolf attacks in Germany are not powerful enough to influence the election decisions of many voters www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting

The resurgence of wolves in Germany has sparked intense debate, particularly in rural areas where wolf attacks on livestock are frequent. Prior resear…

www.sciencedirect.com

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Jun 29

2/2 In the second paper, which I will present in Barcelona @sgparliaments.bsky.social next week, @ortuttnauer.com and I investigate the dynamics of how and when parliamentary voting and speech-making align. I’m only hoping for good air conditioning, as I‘m sure about an amazing crowd again 🙂‍↔️

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Jun 29

1/2 Another year, another @epsanet.bsky.social This year I had two papers accepted, but no visual proof that I presented joint work with Thomas Bräuninger on (the problems of) dynamic scale usage. I hope some nice people will capture 📸 me again next year in the Post-EPSA era @epssnet.bsky.social

Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · Jun 29

2/2 In the second paper, which I will present in Barcelona @sgparliaments.bsky.social next week, @ortuttnauer.com and I investigate the dynamics of how and when parliamentary voting and speech-making align. I’m hoping for good air conditioning, as I’m sure the crowd will be amazing again!

Reposted by Lukas Warode

Nicolai Berk @nicolaiberk.bsky.social · Jun 29

So is it pronounced EPSS or EPSS? #epsa2025

Reposted by Lukas Warode

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · Jun 28

In 1/2 an hour at #epsa2025, I’ll explain @lwarode.bsky.social and my approach to measuring divergence in gov-opp relations measurement based on parliamentary votes and speeches. The panel’s hidden at -1.A.05, so I hope you’ll find your way there (as will I)