Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 2d

וואו לרגע הייתי צריך לוודא שאני מבין מי זה שומרון (שמרון?) ומי זה אוניל

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 4d

My doctor: if you feel hungry, perhaps try drinking water first, see if that fills the urge.

Me: I feel hungry, let’s try chocolate first

2

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 6d

I really like that this paper conceptualises and tests an idea which is common-sense (that the competition over prime-ministership matters for voting) but nonetheless has not been thoroughly studied. Also, publishing in @ejprjournal.bsky.social was always on my bucket list 😀
4/4

2

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 6d

Interestingly, voters who believe their preferred formateur (PM candidate) will lose behave similarly to those who are uncertain, acting in what we call "puncher's chance" mentality. Both groups display higher rates of strategic behaviour (shown here relying on 6 🇩🇪 election surveys)
3/4

The effects of formateur uncertainty and preferences on formateur optimization.
Note: Predicted probabilities based on Model 2 in Table 2. Vertical capped lines represent 90% confidence intervals.

1 1

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 6d

Our cross-national analysis (@cses.bsky.social) shows: when there is uncertainty over which party will lead the next government, voters are more likely to vote for the two largest parties (left figure). This effect diminishes when partisan attachments are especially strong (right figure).
2/4

The effect of the electoral gap on formateur optimization.
Note: Predicted probabilities based on Model 2 in Table 1. Gray bars depict the percentage of cases for each value on the x-axis. Vertical capped lines represent 95% confidence intervals.

The marginal effect of formateur uncertainty conditional on thermometer drop.
Note: Marginal effects based on Model 3 in Table 1. Gray bars depict the percentage of cases for each value on the x-axis. Vertical capped lines represent 95% confidence intervals.

1 2

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 6d

🚨New #polisky publication 🚨
In @ejprjournal.bsky.social, Reut Itzkovitch-Malka, @liranharsgor.bsky.social and I ask: when do voters back a party that's not their top pick, but has a real shot at being the the next PM's party?
The answer is a mix of preferences, expectations, and uncertainty

1/4

The effect of formateur expectations on vote choice: A comparative analysis | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core

The effect of formateur expectations on vote choice: A comparative analysis

www.cambridge.org

1 4 13

Reposted by Or Tuttnauer

Liran Harsgor @liranharsgor.bsky.social · 7d

Do voters strategically attempt to affect the identity of the next prime minister?
In a new paper at @ejprjournal.bsky.social, we show they do!
Using @cses.bsky.social and German surveys, we find when and how "formateur optimization" is more likely to occur
@ortuttnauer.com
doi.org/10.1017/S147...

3 8

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 8d

For what it’s worth (which is absolutely nothing), I’m finishing the 2029-2030 season on 2k25, with the Ws being 5-time repeat champions behind the trio of Podz, Moody, and… 2027 MVP Trayce (?!)

3

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 12d

#academicsky woes

Me: working my ass off on a paper

Reviewer 1: but why did you use [a model I never considered using] and not the better option of [the model I specifically said I used]?

Reviewer 2: it makes no sense to control for [a variable I never use or mention in the text]

😡

1 21

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 12d

This is one of the most depressing hype-posts I’ve seen in a while

NBA @nba.com · 12d

A new trio has formed in the Valley ☀️

2

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 29d

On the plus side, I’m already complaining like a German. Richtig eingedeutcht

9

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 29d

Came back to 🇩🇪 from a 3-week vacation. Already couldn’t pay in card in two places, and the trains today don’t work. Classic welcome home 👎

1 6

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · Aug 14

בזמנו כשחיפשתי, בדיוק יצא השיר הזה והשתמשתי בו
youtu.be/LlY90lG_Fuw?...

Pharrell Williams - Freedom (Video)

YouTube video by PharrellWilliamsVEVO

youtu.be

1

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · Aug 12

מישהו צריך ללכת לבית שלו בלילה ולצייר לו על הראש עם משחת שיניים. אותה רמת בגרות
www.haaretz.co.il/news/law/202...

לוין החליף מנעולים בלשכה שמשמשת את היועמ"שית, והיא לא הצליחה להיכנס

מדובר בלשכה של שר המשפטים שמשמשת שנים ארוכות גם את היועצים המשפטיים לממשלה. לוין מסר כי שימושה של "עורכת הדין בהרב-מיארה" בלשכה "אינו מורשה", והוסיף כי זו "התנהלות תמוהה מצד מי שכבר הודחה מתפקידה". רא...

www.haaretz.co.il

5

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · Aug 12

מה הקשר בין המיזוג ברכבות בגרמניה והדג נחש?

youtu.be/cpyPi8_RQs0?...

Hadag Nahash - Lo Maspik - הדג נחש - לא מספיק

YouTube video by הדג נחש

youtu.be

1