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Reposted by Macartan Humphreys

The Irish Times @irishtimes.com · 4d

Manchán Magan: President Michael D Higgins leads tributes to writer and documentary maker who has died aged 55

Author spoke of terminal illness in recent radio interview, saying he did not feel despair

www.irishtimes.com

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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 5d

📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...

We'll feature four sections this week to provide more information about the conference.

🔝 Judicial Politics + Public Policy & Administration + Migration Politics + Gender & Sexuality Politics

🧵

EPSS 2026 Conference | June 18–20 | ICC Belfast, UK

Join top political scientists for the EPSS 2026 Annual Conference in Belfast. Submit papers, attend panels, and network with fellow researchers.

epssnet.org

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GESIS Training @gesistraining.bsky.social · 5d

Want to bring causal thinking into qualitative or mixed methods research? @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social show how to build causal models & use Bayesian reasoning to link theory with data, guide case & method choices, & combine within- & cross-case evidence.
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26

GESIS Workshop
Causal Models for Qualitative and Mixed Methods Research
27 to 28 January 2026 / Cologne
Macartan Humphreys & Alan M. Jacobs

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GESIS Training @gesistraining.bsky.social · 6d

📣 Our October newsletter is out! 🍂
🔍 Interview w/ @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social
✨ Updates on #GESISworkshops & #GESISspringseminar, plus a look back at #GESISsummerschool

👀 Enjoy the read: t1p.de/training-nl-...

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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 9d

Like other social democratic parties in Europe, Labour has only lost a small share of its voters to Reform. Yet Reform dominates the agenda. And Labour‘s response especially on immigration only strengthens Reform further. I‘m a broken record on this but just puzzling how these narratives persist.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10d

NEW!
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...

Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.

Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk

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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 9d

Not bubbles exactly but this sounds like a job for geom_smooth

ggplot2.tidyverse.org/reference/ge...

See figs at bottom with bands

FWIW my original remarks weren’t about smoothing but about sequences that are themselves smooth; thought experiment imagine an infinity of measures all fall on a line

Smoothed conditional means — geom_smooth

Aids the eye in seeing patterns in the presence of overplotting. geom_smooth() and stat_smooth() are effectively aliases: they both use the same arguments. Use stat_smooth() if you want to display the...

ggplot2.tidyverse.org

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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 10d

noise from trends if we believe smooth processes happen in nature but noisy measurement invariably produces series that are not smooth. Just a musing though.

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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 10d

To me the message from the graph seems clear and yes terrifying

I was trying to think why I wasn’t bothered by the lack of error bars and I think it’s

1. The trends are clear even if we aren’t sure about the points and

2. What I was musing about: seems to me we can infer something about …

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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 10d

These lines are fairly straight. But imagine they were very very close to perfectly straight. Would you infer anything about the second moments?

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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 14d

📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...

We'll feature two sections each Tuesday & Thursday to provide more information about the conference.

🔝 This Tuesday: Party Politics & Historical Political Economy

Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference

Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.

epssnet.org

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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 19d

Congrats!!

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The Onion @theonion.com · 20d

Report: You To Be Fired For Reading This Headline About Charlie Kirk

NEW YORK—Insisting your fate was sealed the moment you clicked the link, a report released Tuesday found that you will be fired for reading this headline about Charlie Kirk. “Shortly after you navigat...

theonion.com

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WZB Berlin @wzb.bsky.social · 21d

And we are delighted to announce that @valentimvicente.bsky.social will be honored with the A.SK Bright Mind Award for his work on how social norms influence behavior. 🎉Congratulations!

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WZB Berlin @wzb.bsky.social · 21d

Congratulations! 🏆 Penny Goldberg receives the A.SK Social Science Award 2025. The WZB honors the economist @yalejackson.bsky.social for her research on global trade linkages and inequality.
www.wzb.eu/en/press-rel...
📅This year's award ceremony will take place on Wednesday, November 5, 2025.

This is the invitation for the A.SK Social Science Award

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michaelbarenboim.bsky.social @michaelbarenboim.bsky.social · 22d

Wir wollen die Menschen in Deutschland mobilisieren, um gegen die Unterdrückung und Auslöschung der Palästinenser*innen, gegen Apartheid und Genozid zu protestieren. Deutschlands Unterstützung dieser Verbrechen muss sofort beendet werden. Deshalb: All Eyes on Gaza!

www.amnesty.de/pressemittei...

"All eyes on Gaza": Wachsende Unterstützung für Solidaritätskundgebung in Berlin

Am 27. September finden in Berlin eine Großkundgebung und ein Konzert statt.

www.amnesty.de

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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 23d

Hi will
If you go to the join page you will see the option to gave memberships honored

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Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 26d

📣 Climate politics (+ adjacent subfields) researchers!

@antvalentim.bsky.social and I will co-chair the Climate Politics section of @epssnet.bsky.social Belfast 2026. Thanks to those who already submitted papers 🌟

We put together notes for the CfP for the section curious. Reach out if you have qs:

Call for Papers: Climate Section – EPSS 2026, Belfast

Call for Papers: Climate Section – EPSS 2026, Belfast We invite submissions of high-quality work on any topic related to climate change politics (and adjacent areas, e.g. environmental and energy pol...

docs.google.com

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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 27d

📢 Call for Papers for EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is out: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...

Starting today, we'll feature two sections each week to provide more information about the conference.

🔝 This week: Comparative Politics & International Relations

Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference

Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.

epssnet.org

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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 27d

Congratulations !!

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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 28d

🚨 Reposting to avoid any confusion between EPSS & EPSA 🚨

If you want to support non-for-profit, member-led political science association, EPSS is the place to be!

More here 👇🏽

EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · Aug 7

EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026.

😵‍💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA.

👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things.

A short 🧵

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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 29d

📢 EPSS community updates! 

We’re excited to share some milestones and announcements with you 👇

epssnet.org/news/

EPSS News & Updates | Political Science Announcements

Get the latest news, conference announcements, and organizational updates from the European Political Science Society (EPSS).

epssnet.org

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Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 29d

We're excited to share some EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social updates with you - and we're so grateful to the political science community in Europe (and beyond!) for the amazing support 👇

EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 29d

📢 EPSS community updates! 

We’re excited to share some milestones and announcements with you 👇

epssnet.org/news/

EPSS News & Updates | Political Science Announcements

Get the latest news, conference announcements, and organizational updates from the European Political Science Society (EPSS).

epssnet.org

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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 29d

material: integrated-inferences.github.io gets you to

* our open access book on causal infernce in qual & mixed methods
* our pkg CausalQueries for all kinds of causal wizardry
* a forthcoming JSS paper on CausalQueries with Tiez, @syunyaev.bsky.social & Medina

macartan.github.io/assets/pdf/p...

macartan.github.io

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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 29d

Please share: @alanjacobs.bsky.social and I are running a Jan '26 course at @gesis.org Cologne on

𝐂𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐝𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡

🕵️Process tracing + Bayesian inference + graphical causal models

All in two heady days.

training.gesis.org?site=pDetail...

GESIS Training Courses

training.gesis.org

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Macartan Humphreys @macartan.bsky.social · 29d

@wzb.bsky.social is looking for a new director

Two weeks left to apply; these are really great permanent senior positions with resources to support an ambitious research agenda

hugely important topic

www.wzb.eu/en/jobs/dire...

please share with people not on here

www.wzb.eu

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