Mark G. Sheppard
@markgsheppard.com
Inequality/Mobility/Design.
Econ PhD Candidate, The Graduate Center.
Researcher @NBER.org.
2nd Lt., U.S. National Guard.
Former Congressional Staff.
Econ PhD Candidate, The Graduate Center.
Researcher @NBER.org.
2nd Lt., U.S. National Guard.
Former Congressional Staff.
It’d only like to have a Substack so I can make fun data visualizations and fun cover arts like this.
January 14, 2026 at 12:12 AM
It’d only like to have a Substack so I can make fun data visualizations and fun cover arts like this.
January 13, 2026 at 3:48 PM
Data shows majority think the death of #ReneeNicoleGood was not justified.
January 13, 2026 at 2:51 AM
Data shows majority think the death of #ReneeNicoleGood was not justified.
#FederalReserve Chairman #JeromePowell says the Department of Justice served grand jury subpoenas tied to Senate Banking Committee testimony, and argues the threat is aimed at central bank independence. #EconSky
January 12, 2026 at 2:30 AM
#FederalReserve Chairman #JeromePowell says the Department of Justice served grand jury subpoenas tied to Senate Banking Committee testimony, and argues the threat is aimed at central bank independence. #EconSky
Made this quick design this morning, for the simple fact that "Protest for Good" is such a marketing banger, and wanted to put this out there, in case someone needed design ideas.
#ProtestForGood
#ProtestForGood
January 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM
Made this quick design this morning, for the simple fact that "Protest for Good" is such a marketing banger, and wanted to put this out there, in case someone needed design ideas.
#ProtestForGood
#ProtestForGood
This issue is worsened by the fact progressives often place a premium on very technical policies often passed through Congress using low-visibility.
January 10, 2026 at 6:17 PM
This issue is worsened by the fact progressives often place a premium on very technical policies often passed through Congress using low-visibility.
Recently, Trump has been appropriating long-running progressive policies, distorting the details and blurring the attribution of the agenda —that cross-pressures low-information voters.
Progressives must advocate for a real affordability platform that helps moderate-income folks.
#EconSky
Progressives must advocate for a real affordability platform that helps moderate-income folks.
#EconSky
January 10, 2026 at 6:17 PM
Recently, Trump has been appropriating long-running progressive policies, distorting the details and blurring the attribution of the agenda —that cross-pressures low-information voters.
Progressives must advocate for a real affordability platform that helps moderate-income folks.
#EconSky
Progressives must advocate for a real affordability platform that helps moderate-income folks.
#EconSky
Right, though these measures are supposed to be seasonally-adjusted, I worry there's a degree of under-seasonalization happening.
But also-also, more economically vulnerable groups (racial minorities, low educated, etc) tend to be underemployed. And by extension, signal downturns earlier.
But also-also, more economically vulnerable groups (racial minorities, low educated, etc) tend to be underemployed. And by extension, signal downturns earlier.
January 9, 2026 at 3:58 PM
Right, though these measures are supposed to be seasonally-adjusted, I worry there's a degree of under-seasonalization happening.
But also-also, more economically vulnerable groups (racial minorities, low educated, etc) tend to be underemployed. And by extension, signal downturns earlier.
But also-also, more economically vulnerable groups (racial minorities, low educated, etc) tend to be underemployed. And by extension, signal downturns earlier.
When you unpack unemployment by race, and utilize that data in a turning point framework, marginalized racial minorities tend to signal downturns sooner (albeit with more noise).
January 9, 2026 at 3:44 PM
When you unpack unemployment by race, and utilize that data in a turning point framework, marginalized racial minorities tend to signal downturns sooner (albeit with more noise).
This is operable not just because slack precedes firings in the lead up to a downturn, but also because economically vulnerable groups (racial minorities, low educated, etc.) tend to be underemployed, that research by @epi.org.
January 9, 2026 at 3:44 PM
This is operable not just because slack precedes firings in the lead up to a downturn, but also because economically vulnerable groups (racial minorities, low educated, etc.) tend to be underemployed, that research by @epi.org.
When you look at the popular recession indicators: the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, the #MichezRule, by Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez, which adds job vacancy data, and the U6 Modified Sahm Rule, by M. Sheppard, using underemployment data shows downturns sooner.
January 9, 2026 at 3:44 PM
When you look at the popular recession indicators: the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, the #MichezRule, by Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez, which adds job vacancy data, and the U6 Modified Sahm Rule, by M. Sheppard, using underemployment data shows downturns sooner.
Using #SahmRule -style indicators with labor utilization shows a gradient: broader measures of underemployment (esp. U-6) flag rising slack—because vulnerable workers tend to be underemployed.
Web Interactive: markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/
🚨WP🚨 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#JobsDay #EconSky
Web Interactive: markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/
🚨WP🚨 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#JobsDay #EconSky
January 9, 2026 at 3:27 PM
Using #SahmRule -style indicators with labor utilization shows a gradient: broader measures of underemployment (esp. U-6) flag rising slack—because vulnerable workers tend to be underemployed.
Web Interactive: markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/
🚨WP🚨 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#JobsDay #EconSky
Web Interactive: markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/
🚨WP🚨 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#JobsDay #EconSky
California and Minnesota solidarity is built on having former actors of the movie Predator turned governors criticize the politics of the host of the Apprentice turned president.
January 9, 2026 at 8:24 AM
California and Minnesota solidarity is built on having former actors of the movie Predator turned governors criticize the politics of the host of the Apprentice turned president.
Betting markets put the odds of a #GovernmentShutdown at the end of the month at ~25%, but even if Congress avoids a shutdown, repeated fiscal brinkmanship (especially with unified government) cannot become the new normal. #EconSky
kalshi.com/markets/kxgo...
kalshi.com/markets/kxgo...
January 9, 2026 at 1:38 AM
Betting markets put the odds of a #GovernmentShutdown at the end of the month at ~25%, but even if Congress avoids a shutdown, repeated fiscal brinkmanship (especially with unified government) cannot become the new normal. #EconSky
kalshi.com/markets/kxgo...
kalshi.com/markets/kxgo...
Yeah but more broadly, immigration is an issue that divides on party lines, isn’t prioritized by the public, and remains Trump’s best issue.
January 8, 2026 at 9:17 PM
Yeah but more broadly, immigration is an issue that divides on party lines, isn’t prioritized by the public, and remains Trump’s best issue.
With respect to the "slow to hire/fire" rhetoric, data shows using unemployment by: race, u-measure and education, in a #SahmRule like function, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, shows some are consistently "first to be fired" in a downturn.
#EconSky #JOLTS
🚨New WP🚨 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#EconSky #JOLTS
🚨New WP🚨 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
January 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM
With respect to the "slow to hire/fire" rhetoric, data shows using unemployment by: race, u-measure and education, in a #SahmRule like function, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, shows some are consistently "first to be fired" in a downturn.
#EconSky #JOLTS
🚨New WP🚨 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#EconSky #JOLTS
🚨New WP🚨 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
A much clearer way to visualize this information is with a choropleth map instead of a dot map. Also I’m not sure why the projection distorts Alaska so much.
January 7, 2026 at 6:03 PM
A much clearer way to visualize this information is with a choropleth map instead of a dot map. Also I’m not sure why the projection distorts Alaska so much.
January 2, 2026 at 1:20 PM
The landing page of the working paper website also has an interactive D3 graphic that pretty clearly shows that recession responsiveness of labor-based turning point indicators increases when you input more sensitive measures of underemployment, it's basically a gradient from U1 to U6. #EconSky
December 30, 2025 at 8:37 PM
The landing page of the working paper website also has an interactive D3 graphic that pretty clearly shows that recession responsiveness of labor-based turning point indicators increases when you input more sensitive measures of underemployment, it's basically a gradient from U1 to U6. #EconSky
I made an accompanying website with interactive tool for the the working paper, so people can browse the data. And it clearly shows U6 outperforms U3 by about a month, with basically the same accuracy. I can also send you R code for U6-U5, which does fine.
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
December 30, 2025 at 8:35 PM
I made an accompanying website with interactive tool for the the working paper, so people can browse the data. And it clearly shows U6 outperforms U3 by about a month, with basically the same accuracy. I can also send you R code for U6-U5, which does fine.
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...
Recessions hit economically vulnerable groups first.
🚨 My First Working Paper 🚨 using broader labor-utilization measures, like a U6-based @claudia-sahm.bsky.social style rule, flags recessions months before dating.
Please read + share:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
🚨 My First Working Paper 🚨 using broader labor-utilization measures, like a U6-based @claudia-sahm.bsky.social style rule, flags recessions months before dating.
Please read + share:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
December 30, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Recessions hit economically vulnerable groups first.
🚨 My First Working Paper 🚨 using broader labor-utilization measures, like a U6-based @claudia-sahm.bsky.social style rule, flags recessions months before dating.
Please read + share:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
🚨 My First Working Paper 🚨 using broader labor-utilization measures, like a U6-based @claudia-sahm.bsky.social style rule, flags recessions months before dating.
Please read + share:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Sure this particular study aggregates across disciplines, but Stansbury’s work in this area that disaggregates across disciplines shows that economics PhDs disproportionately come from comfortable backgrounds.
December 30, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Sure this particular study aggregates across disciplines, but Stansbury’s work in this area that disaggregates across disciplines shows that economics PhDs disproportionately come from comfortable backgrounds.
The hot takes by economic commentators failing to understand the disconnect between GDP and consumer sentiment need to fully appreciate that the economy has been characterized by a kind of Robin-Hood-in-Reverse direction for over 35 years. #EconSky
December 30, 2025 at 12:47 AM
The hot takes by economic commentators failing to understand the disconnect between GDP and consumer sentiment need to fully appreciate that the economy has been characterized by a kind of Robin-Hood-in-Reverse direction for over 35 years. #EconSky
As the president touts GDP numbers, I keep coming back to this: economists need an economic well-being index—a transparent composite that tells us how the economy, with a focus on the income distribution, not just on average.
#EconSky #Economics 1/9
#EconSky #Economics 1/9
December 24, 2025 at 6:26 PM
As the president touts GDP numbers, I keep coming back to this: economists need an economic well-being index—a transparent composite that tells us how the economy, with a focus on the income distribution, not just on average.
#EconSky #Economics 1/9
#EconSky #Economics 1/9