#FederalReserve Chairman #JeromePowell says the Department of Justice served grand jury subpoenas tied to Senate Banking Committee testimony, and argues the threat is aimed at central bank independence. #EconSky

Right, though these measures are supposed to be seasonally-adjusted, I worry there's a degree of under-seasonalization happening.

But also-also, more economically vulnerable groups (racial minorities, low educated, etc) tend to be underemployed. And by extension, signal downturns earlier.

When you unpack unemployment by race, and utilize that data in a turning point framework, marginalized racial minorities tend to signal downturns sooner (albeit with more noise).

Using #SahmRule -style indicators with labor utilization shows a gradient: broader measures of underemployment (esp. U-6) flag rising slack—because vulnerable workers tend to be underemployed.

Web Interactive: markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/
🚨WP🚨 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#JobsDay #EconSky

With respect to the "slow to hire/fire" rhetoric, data shows using unemployment by: race, u-measure and education, in a #SahmRule like function, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, shows some are consistently "first to be fired" in a downturn.

#EconSky #JOLTS

🚨New WP🚨 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

POV: FRED every first Friday of the month.
#JobsDay #JobsReport #EconSky

The landing page of the working paper website also has an interactive D3 graphic that pretty clearly shows that recession responsiveness of labor-based turning point indicators increases when you input more sensitive measures of underemployment, it's basically a gradient from U1 to U6. #EconSky

I made an accompanying website with interactive tool for the the working paper, so people can browse the data. And it clearly shows U6 outperforms U3 by about a month, with basically the same accuracy. I can also send you R code for U6-U5, which does fine.

markgsheppard.github.io/SahmRule/int...