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Marcus Shepheard

@mashley.bsky.social

1.2K followers 390 following 400 posts

Formerly @instituteforgov.bsky.social and @thecccuk.bsky.social, currently @nestauk.bsky.social, estwhile evolutionary biologist. "The intersection of policy and donuts" - @jillongovt.bsky.social

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Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · Nov 14

Appreciate all the people who've followed me over the past week or so, welcome to Bluesky!

I've really benefitted from starter packs as this network grows. So I've made one of my own to help new arrivals find other interesting people. Please share, and let me know who's missing

go.bsky.app/Gq8LXLp

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Reposted by Marcus Shepheard

James Ball @jamesrball.com · 3d

*gasp*

“Everyone thought we’d come in and there were going to be these huge costs we could cut away but there just aren’t,” said a third senior Reform cabinet member in Kent.

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Best for Britain @bestforbritain.org · 5d

Theresa May: “To row back now would be a catastrophic mistake for while that consensus is being tested, the science remains the same.” 🎯 💯

https://www.ft.com/content/fdcba944-8fd0-4cf0-bfbd-6bfbb2256987 via @ft

Theresa May hits out at Badenoch’s pledge to ditch flagship UK climate change law

Former prime minister warned Tory leader’s move would be ‘catastrophic mistake’

www.ft.com

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Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 6d

Yeah, healthcare costs do go exponential in later years

Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 6d

Is Anthropic's AI really going to be able to recreate the full scale of human creativity if it's not sampling the literary works of Chuck Tingle? Seems like an oversight.

Courtney Milan @courtneymilan.com · 7d

Hey authors, the official list of Anthropic works is available for searching.

secure.anthropiccopyrightsettlement.com/lookup

Submit a Claim

secure.anthropiccopyrightsettlement.com

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Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 6d

Huh, I would not have guessed. Thanks for the info.

In that case I agree, the omission is really odd.

Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 6d

Maybe it's because the earlier data was all binned to 65+ so that's the only way to have a consistent time series?

I guess older people account for a relatively larger share of state spending (healthcare, pensions, etc). Is the disparity so large that we can just ignore costs associated with kids?

Reposted by Marcus Shepheard

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 7d

I want to call out this "tackling climate change is bad for the working class" argument:

1. Poorer communities tend to be more vulnerable to climate shocks
2. The shift to net zero is expected to create more jobs than it destroys
3. Turning back on clean energy likely won't lower energy bills

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Reposted by Marcus Shepheard

John C @badsocialism.bsky.social · 8d

I am genuinely exhausted by the idea we "haven't had a serious conversation about Immigration in the UK". It's all we have been *fucking talking about* since I was, like, eight.

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Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 8d

7) Make things easy for consumers

The WHP needs to ensure that consumers get a good deal. And there are so many ways that it can offer a better deal than what people get now.

Consumer protection, advice and support are key to the success of the transition. The plan needs to engage with these areas

Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 8d

6) Do something on finance

Most home upgrades are either being funded with public money (via schemes such as ECO), or by homeowners with cash on hand (supported by subsidies such as BUS).

As the market grows, we need more ways to help people pay for upgrades. Current finance offers are limited.

Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 8d

5) Provide certainty by setting out a clear plan

The heat transition has been stalled by uncertainty - most notably about whether H2 will play a role in home heating. But also the stop-start nature of schemes.

The WHP needs to set a new, clear direction with longer timelines to support industry.

Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 8d

4) Make local delivery work

Successive Governments acknowledged that most of the work of upgrading Britain's homes needs to be done at a local level. But with local Government running on fumes, and little other capacity in areas, the WHP needs to do something new and bold to make progress.

Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 8d

3) Balance electrification with insulation

To date, Government policy has followed the principle of 'fabric first'. But there are only so many savings to be achieved from insulation.

Heat pumps, solar PV, batteries and EVs should drive bill savings, while fabric measures provide comfort.

Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 8d

2) Electricity needs to get cheaper

The Government is already doing a lot on the supply side. The investment in renewable generation made through Clean Power 2030 should start driving prices down in the next couple of years. But there is more to do in the short term, particularly on levy reform.

Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 8d

1) It needs to accelerate electrification, and the switch away from gas.

Heating is the biggest single energy expense for every household, and electrification of heat is key to reduce bills and emissions. Heat pumps will be the main technology here, but getting the numbers up needs new policies.

Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 8d

The Warm Homes Plan is coming, and it should provide a lot of answers and new details to how the Government will tackle the issues of energy bills, fuel poverty and emissions from homes.

@acjsissons.bsky.social sets out seven tests to judge the merits of the plan

www.nesta.org.uk/blog/seven-t...

Seven tests for the government’s Warm Homes plan

Accelerating the switch from gas to electricity, make electricity cheaper, and balancing electrification with insulation are key policies that could reduce bills and carbon emissions for households

www.nesta.org.uk

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Reposted by Marcus Shepheard

James Plunkett @jamestplunkett.bsky.social · 10d

New thing alert! 📣 Today's we're launching a new initiative: The Centre for the Edge 📣
@kinship.works and @jrf-uk.bsky.social
How can leaders in our struggling public institutions support the emergence of alternatives?
More here from @mssophiaparker.bsky.social and me:

medium.com/@jamestplunk...

The Centre for the Edge

A new initiative to help public sector leaders support emerging alternatives

medium.com

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Reposted by Marcus Shepheard

Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 15d

The government has floated the idea of takin VAT off energy bills as a quick fix to lower bills.
@mashley.bsky.social has run the numbers. He reckons it would cost £2.5 billion a year - and that there may be better ways to spend that kind of money

www.nesta.org.uk/blog/is-remo...

Is removing VAT really the best way to cut energy bills?

Targeting electricity bills, subsidising bill-funded schemes, or a one-off debt forgiveness program offer more effective, fair, and sustainable solutions

www.nesta.org.uk

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Reposted by Marcus Shepheard

Resolution Foundation @resfoundation.bsky.social · 19d

🚨 Even more housing data alert

Today’s housing supply indicators show a welcome uptick in the number of dwellings started.

But data released yesterday showed planning approvals dropping to a record low in Q2 2025, a worrying sign. Read our blog on this here: buff.ly/WLt3Z6e

Chart showing dwelling started by tenure, rolling year average: England

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Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 19d

100% with Marie on this; we need more waterfront pubs in Central London. The relative abundance of spots upstream of Battersea is one of the things that makes the stretch from Isleworth to Putney is particularly nice.

h/t @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com

youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/so-about-t...

Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 22d

Ah, that makes sense then! The DESNZ numbers I'm working off imply £1.69bn in VAT for 2021 (which would probably be the current data for an article in 2022).

Thanks for the clarification. Good to know I'm not wildly off-base. And thanks for the quick response.

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Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · 22d

Hi Richard, could you help me understand where the £1.75bn figure comes from? I'm getting a sightly different number

Per DESNZ's data on domestic bills, UK households spent £26.3bn on electricity and £18.7bn on gas in 2024, implying £2.3bn in VAT (£1.3bn electricity and £935m gas).

Many thanks

Reposted by Marcus Shepheard

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 23d

My most centrist dad take is that most governing politicians deserve sympathy because almost every policy that's actually any good for the country is unpopular, and almost every popular policy is probably bad.

Johnson's Brexit approach was far worse than Chequers IMHO but 20ppts more popular 1/

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Reposted by Marcus Shepheard

Doug Parr @dougparr.bsky.social · Sep 4

Moving gas plants - which set the price of electricity- out of the market and into a nationally controlled reserve, would take £5bn off the UK’s energy bills

“Renewable energy is cheaper than gas but we’re not reaping all of the benefits clean power brings”

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Energy users ‘could save £5bn a year’ if gas plants are removed from market

Former energy tsar suggests the ‘radical step’ as one of the few options the government has for cutting bills

www.theguardian.com

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Marcus Shepheard @mashley.bsky.social · Sep 4

uRGH basically sums up the state of the world right now eh

😕