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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 22h

I will be at UChicago, Northwestern, & Lake Forest briefly this week. And for the first trip since 2019, I'll be returning to Missouri this weekend (including seeing Mizzou-Bama & Chiefs-Lions). Hope to catch up with many folks soon.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 1d

There is increasing political polarization in colleges' student bodies. Both liberal & conservative students prefer institutions with more like-minded peers and are willing to pay thousands of dollars more to avoid students from the other side
edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1280

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 2d

The "We Must Do Something. This Is Something" shutdown still seems unlikely to gain anything that wasn't winnable before. But it also seems unlikely to do any electoral damage. Public & market reaction is extremely limited. Still depends on how Dem base responds to end.

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Reposted by Matt Grossmann

Thomas J Wood @thomasjwood.bsky.social · 5d

The last time I posted the income relationship to presidential vote among White respondents to the @electionstudies.bsky.social ANES, people asked for additional estimates among all voters.

Updated estimates here:

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Reposted by Matt Grossmann

Kevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · 5d

New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social.

We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Plot showing perception of voter ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. Republicans are drifting slightly to be more conservative, Democrats are mostly staying in one place.

Plot showing messaging ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. There is increasing separation between parties over time, with Republicans becoming messaging more moderately during the Trump era and then shifting to the right during Biden.

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Reposted by Matt Grossmann

Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 7d

Most graphs of the fertility rate depict the 'period fertility rate', which is based on a single year's data and doesn't necessarily reflect how many children women actually have across their lifetimes.

I've used data from the Human Fertility Database to show the cumulative number instead:

Cohort fertility rates for the United States, by age 40, 45 and 50.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 12d

spending has long more closely matched presidential budget requests than provided for in enacted appropriations, driven by presidents spending less than Congress
appropriates 1970s-era reforms did not eliminate these deviations.
drive.google.com/file/d/1bTy4...

Angell Who Has The Power of the Purse.pdf

drive.google.com

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 13d

The Trump admin is only making one pocket rescission request, focused on foreign aid? What about the other unspent $, like at NIH & NSF? Is it going to be spent on something by this month? Is there another impoundment path they are trying?

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 13d

Join us at 9am for a live edition of the Science of Politics podcast. We'll talk shutdown politics, Democratic Party factions, repositioning, the 2026 elections, & long-term prospects for liberalism & renewal

Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 26d

Join us in person in DC or online for a live edition of the Science of Politics podcast with @mattyglesias.bsky.social & Steven Teles on whether & how the Democratic Party will revive.
Thursday, 9/25 at 9am

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Reposted by Matt Grossmann

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 14d

Depolarization is not "a scalable solution for reducing societal-level conflict.... achieving lasting depolarization will likely require....moving beyond individual-level treatments to address the elite behaviors and structural incentives that fuel partisan conflict" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 14d

Gaining Dem senate control in 2026 is very unlikely (ME, NC, OH, & elsewhere?!). But margins matter; every race lost in 2024 made 2026 harder. 2028 doesn't offer much more. Dem geographic disadvantage is real but it may mean they need to win 3 cycles in a row (haven't since 80s)

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Reposted by Matt Grossmann

Curd Knüpfer @curdknupfer.bsky.social · 16d

Excellent work here by @mikecowburn.bsky.social and @meredithconroy.bsky.social!

Very interesting dynamics potentially driving these gendered trends:
Dems worry (too much) about a what an imagined public might want.

Reps do what they want, when they feel like they can.

Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16d

Democratic women are disadvantaged in competitive district primaries, where party elites prioritize electability & view men as safer. Republican women are disadvantaged in safe district primaries, where elites & voters assume they are less conservative.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

www.tandfonline.com

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16d

Democratic women are disadvantaged in competitive district primaries, where party elites prioritize electability & view men as safer. Republican women are disadvantaged in safe district primaries, where elites & voters assume they are less conservative.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

www.tandfonline.com

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 18d

Among both Democrats and Republicans, jurors openly favor (hypothetical) copartisan defendants over out-partisan defendants, with the greatest effects among those that are most affectively polarized
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Partisan Bias in Juror Decision-Making - Jesse Rhodes, Tatishe Nteta, Douglas Rice, 2025

How does partisan identity shape perceptions of guilt? In this paper, we examine whether a hypothetical defendant’s perceived political party identification inf...

journals.sagepub.com

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Reposted by Matt Grossmann

Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 19d

Really enjoyed this discussion about the impacts of partisan redistricting and gerrymandering for control of Congress.

Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 20d

Will Partisan Redistricting Tip Congress?

New #ScienceOfPolitics with Eric McGhee and Daniel Kolliner
www.niskanencenter.org/will-partisa...

Will partisan redistricting tip Congress? - Niskanen Center

Eric McGhee finds that both parties are increasingly extreme in gerrymandering but that prior mid-decade redistricting gains have been small. Daniel Kolliner finds that Republican control of redistric...

www.niskanencenter.org

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Reposted by Matt Grossmann

Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 20d

Will Partisan Redistricting Tip Congress?

New #ScienceOfPolitics with Eric McGhee and Daniel Kolliner
www.niskanencenter.org/will-partisa...

Will partisan redistricting tip Congress? - Niskanen Center

Eric McGhee finds that both parties are increasingly extreme in gerrymandering but that prior mid-decade redistricting gains have been small. Daniel Kolliner finds that Republican control of redistric...

www.niskanencenter.org

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 20d

Will Partisan Redistricting Tip Congress?

New #ScienceOfPolitics with Eric McGhee and Daniel Kolliner
www.niskanencenter.org/will-partisa...

Will partisan redistricting tip Congress? - Niskanen Center

Eric McGhee finds that both parties are increasingly extreme in gerrymandering but that prior mid-decade redistricting gains have been small. Daniel Kolliner finds that Republican control of redistric...

www.niskanencenter.org

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21d

It didn't matter in the subsequent election & is mostly forgotten because Republicans caused an (also fruitless but much longer) shutdown post-election.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21d

Dem voters also favored a shutdown & thought Republicans would be blamed (though more narrowly) last time they forced one (over DACA in Jan 2018):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/p...
But most said it was not worth it afterward (because they did not win anything):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/p...

CNN poll: DACA not worth a shutdown, except to Democrats | CNN Politics

With hours to go before a midnight deadline for Congress to fund the government or shut it down, most Americans say avoiding a shutdown is more important than passing a bill to maintain the program al...

www.cnn.com

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Reposted by Matt Grossmann

Kevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · 28d

I've made ideological perception data I've been working on for a while available at the Harvard Dataverse and put together a website here voterperceptions.org with a bunch of visualizations about it and with too much explanation.

I've spent too much time on this, so I hope people find it useful

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 26d

Policymakers do listen to strong evidence & rate it more highly, regardless of ideological alignment with policy
goodauthority.org/news/do-poli...

Do policymakers listen to evidence or their own biases?

A new experiment with local officials across the U.S. shows that yes, strong evidence can shift attitudes.

goodauthority.org

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 26d

Sign up now to join us at @niskanencenter.bsky.social (with bagels & coffee) or online

Should Democrats force a shutdown! Should they refocus on economics over cultural issues? Moderate across the board? Or embrace the abundance agenda?
www.niskanencenter.org/future-of-th...

Event: The future of the democratic party - Niskanen Center

Please join us in person or virtually for a recording of the Science of Politics.

www.niskanencenter.org

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 26d

Join us in person in DC or online for a live edition of the Science of Politics podcast with @mattyglesias.bsky.social & Steven Teles on whether & how the Democratic Party will revive.
Thursday, 9/25 at 9am

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 28d

New diss looks good:
Building the New Right: How Conservatives Mobilized Young Americans for Freedom to Capture the Republican Party, 1960-1980
www.proquest.com/openview/dd0...

www.proquest.com

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 29d

Economic crises tend to help the right because voters assign greater importance to issues owned by the right. When center-right parties preside over a crisis, voters often drift further rightward to nationalist parties rather than defect to the left
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library

How do voters respond to economic crises: Do they turn against the incumbent, reward a certain political camp, polarize to the extremes, or perhaps continue to vote much like before? Analyzing extens...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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