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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 1d

In recent years, white turnout has spiked. But turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated. @devincaughey.bsky.social, Bernard Fraga, @rpgriffin.bsky.social & I have a summary in @goodauth.bsky.social of our work on turnout in U.S. elections. goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...

2024 brought high voter turnout – but a growing racial gap

New data shows that while white turnout has spiked, turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated.

goodauthority.org

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 1d

Wow! Amazing.

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Reposted by Chris Warshaw

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 2d

I think this is one of the more important articles I've written in my career. Draws on lots of research and data. I hope it can be a reference for people and that it will make a positive impact. Goes out to all Strength In Numbers readers tomorrow morning: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 4d

for the weekend crowd: take a moment today to explore what's on the ballot next month!

it's not all about NYC, VA, and NJ: i put together a guide of the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.

explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 4d

Very cool!

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Michael Hankinson @hankinson.bsky.social · 8d

I'm excited to share that we're running a junior faculty search in American politics. Proud to see GWU continue to invest in political science. Link: www.gwu.jobs/postings/122...

Assistant Professor of Political Science

The Department of Political Science invites applications for a tenure-track position in American Politics at the rank of assistant professor beginning as early as Fall 2026. This position is pending f...

www.gwu.jobs

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 14d

Has someone done an analysis of whether there’s a correlation between the racial composition of districts and Dem’s relative performances vs 2024 in special elections? @the-downballot.com @gelliottmorris.com

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 14d

PlanScore now has 2024 precinct-level election data integrated into its analysis (mostly from official sources compiled by the NYT for its national map) for about 25 states. You can use it to check the fairness of maps in your state.

Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 22d

We're slowly integrating 2024 presidential vote into the
@planscore.org model for evaluating the fairness of new districting plans. You can now score maps using 2024 precinct data in CA, TX, and MO. More states coming soon. planscore.org

PlanScore

PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...

planscore.org

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 18d

Hoping they all die when it gets cold.

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 18d

@davesredist.bsky.social continues to be an invaluable resource for scholars and practitioners around redistricting.

Dave's Redistricting @davesredist.bsky.social · 18d

We added 2024 election data for NC and MO, thanks to @redistdatahub.bsky.social !!

And 2024 election data for KS, thanks to @brianamos.com (IKE Lab, VEST).

And recently 2024 election data for MN, thanks to the MN State Government!!!

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 20d

Really enjoyed this discussion about the impacts of partisan redistricting and gerrymandering for control of Congress.

Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21d

Will Partisan Redistricting Tip Congress?

New #ScienceOfPolitics with Eric McGhee and Daniel Kolliner
www.niskanencenter.org/will-partisa...

Will partisan redistricting tip Congress? - Niskanen Center

Eric McGhee finds that both parties are increasingly extreme in gerrymandering but that prior mid-decade redistricting gains have been small. Daniel Kolliner finds that Republican control of redistric...

www.niskanencenter.org

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 20d

I remain puzzled by people who think everything is at risk and conclude that we should do exactly what they already wanted www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/o...

Liberalism used to be obsessed with tradeoffs (the basis of all Slate pitches!) and would mock tradeoff denialism on the right. Not any more.

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 21d

Hey DC-area friends - you should subscribe to the non-profit Banner's new Montgomery County vertical. They have 8 full-time journalists covering Montgomery County issues. Super exciting! www.thebanner.com/montgomery/

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 22d

We're slowly integrating 2024 presidential vote into the
@planscore.org model for evaluating the fairness of new districting plans. You can now score maps using 2024 precinct data in CA, TX, and MO. More states coming soon. planscore.org

PlanScore

PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...

planscore.org

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Reposted by Chris Warshaw

Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 27d

This is a paper I really care about. I feel the core message is very important for social scientists in general, and political scientists in particular.

"Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered."

(with A+ co-authors)

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Reposted by Chris Warshaw

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29d

This also means people should update their view of sentiment regarding Biden economy being all media effects.

George Pearkes @peark.es · 29d

Here's what that looks like graphically, still haven't seen a fully revised series for the impact of the birth-death adjustment yet. Multiple months of negative payrolls growth in 2024 after this revision.

Chart showing nonfarm payrolls MoM change in '000s, with benchmark revisions applied to April 2024-March 2025 changes (911k/12 subtracted from each month)

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Reposted by Chris Warshaw

Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · Sep 4

Disease prevalence in US states before & after vaccine introduction 🧪

From Edward Tufte & graphics.wsj.com/infectious-d...

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · Aug 24

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

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Steven S Smith @profstevensmith.bsky.social · Aug 21

The gerrymandering game has only just begun. The 2030s will be worse. Perhaps only then will we get serious about major reforms, such as instituting proportional representation for House seats in states with more than two or three legislators.

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Reposted by Chris Warshaw

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · Aug 21

What would you say if you saw it in another country?

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · Aug 21

Nice work Adam.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · Aug 19

In 2022, @chriswarshaw.bsky.social Eric McGhee & Michael Migurski published an article in Publius on the 2021-2022 redistricting cycle.

The last lines in their article nicely summarizes the likely outcome of this tit-for-tat mid-decade redistricting mess of 2025.

academic.oup.com/publius/arti...

Quote from an article in the journal Publius, "Though individual states may seek outcomes not too different from what a national standard might have achieved, the modal result will probably disadvantage weaker local groups until such time as a stronger federal role becomes conceivable again."

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Reposted by Chris Warshaw

David Lazer @davidlazer.bsky.social · Aug 19

Check out CHIP50 newest release of executive approval data, with state-level data on approval of Trump and each state's governor. www.chip50.org/executive-ap...

Executive Approval

www.chip50.org

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Reposted by Chris Warshaw

Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · Aug 18

New Post: "For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power"

Add content on statistical power to your social science courses.

Not just to methods courses.

For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful!

www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...

For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power – Carlisle Rainey

Five papers you can assign when teaching about statistical power: power analysis, minimum detectable effects, sample size planning, and design diagnosis.

www.carlislerainey.com

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Cory McCartan @corymccartan.com · Aug 17

Combining the TX and CA redistricting proposals in my simple house model (tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel - copy & edit!), the net effect is D+0.1 seats in a neutral year, with increasing D gains w/ national vote. Bit more responsiveness away from 50/50, too.

TX alone is R+2.1 seats, CA alone is D+2.2

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