Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by Michael D. Krämer

Bruno Arpino @brunoarpino.bsky.social · 14d

New paper out 🎓:

Personality Traits and Provision of Grandparental Childcare: Evidence from Europe (w/ @valeriabordone.bsky.social, Giorgio Di Gessa & @mdkraemer.bsky.social

Using data from @share-eric.bsky.social, we find personality matters for grandhild care provision

doi.org/10.1080/1535...

1 3 19

Reposted by Michael D. Krämer

Samantha Joel @datingdecisions.bsky.social · 28d

In a new paper, my colleagues and I set out to demonstrate how method biases can create spurious findings in relationship science, by using a seemingly meaningless scale (e.g., "My relationship has very good Saturn") to predict relationship outcomes. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Pseudo Effects: How Method Biases Can Produce Spurious Findings About Close Relationships - Samantha Joel, John K. Sakaluk, James J. Kim, Devinder Khera, Helena Yuchen Qin, Sarah C. E. Stanton, 2025

Research on interpersonal relationships frequently relies on accurate self-reporting across various relationship facets (e.g., conflict, trust, appreciation). Y...

journals.sagepub.com

7 69 160

Reposted by Michael D. Krämer

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · Aug 25

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?

Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities

Abstract
Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models).

Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve.

A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals).

Illustrated are
1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals
2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and
3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.

49 280 940

Reposted by Michael D. Krämer

UZH diff-psy @uzh-diffpsy.bsky.social · Aug 22

Wie verändert sich unsere Persönlichkeit über ein Jahr? Dazu starten wir heute eine neue Studie und suchen nach Teilnehmenden zwischen 18-40 Jahren, die Interesse haben, Einblicke in ihre Persönlichkeit, Wohlbefinden und Verhalten über ein Jahr zu erhalten und bis zu 173 CHF (~185€) zu verdienen.

1 7 6

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · Jul 21

Check out our preprint - the result of a really fun collaboration!

Bernd Schäfer @berndschaefer.bsky.social · Jul 21

New preprint: osf.io/8c6sz_v1
@mdkraemer.bsky.social and I, with our fantastic co-authors Cornelia Wrzus, Yannick Roos and @drichter77.bsky.social examined how social contact, desire, and affect dynamically interact across different modalities (in-person, digital) and time scales (hourly, daily).

OSF

osf.io

2 6

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · Jun 16

Updated preprint available at: osf.io/preprints/ps...

OSF

osf.io

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · Jun 16

Self-improvement, self-acceptance, and/or methods effects? Travis Miller, @chopwood.bsky.social , and @wiebkeb.bsky.social, and I examined factors that might explain personality change intervention effects - now in print at JPSP 🥳: doi.org/10.1037/pspp...

1 8 14

Reposted by Michael D. Krämer

Noah Greifer @noahgreifer.bsky.social · Jun 4

Starting to look like I might not be able to work at Harvard anymore due to recent funding cuts. If you know of any open statistical consulting positions that support remote work or are NYC-based, please reach out! 😅

11 97 150

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · May 30

...with @wiebkeb.bsky.social, @chopwood.bsky.social, @peterhaehner.bsky.social, @rosalieandrae.bsky.social and Philippe Sloksnath & Lina Hungerbühler who are not on here yet 🦋

1

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · May 30

We are conducting a meta-analysis on personal and contextual predictors of solitude. We're looking for unpublished research such as theses, unpublished manuscripts, conference submissions etc.
Full call for data: tinyurl.com/4hur45cw
Please reskeet, or message me if you know unpublished research!

MA solitude: Call for unpublished data

Meta-analysis on solitude: Call for unpublished data Dear colleagues, We are conducting a meta-analysis on personal and contextual predictors of solitude. Currently, we are looking for unpublished r...

tinyurl.com

3 10 10

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · May 30

Fantastic speach by @cdrosten.bsky.social on the freedom and responsibilities of researchers in these trying times

DIW Berlin @diw.de · May 30

Die Keynote bei unserem großen Festakt zum 100-jährigen Jubiläum hielt @cdrosten.bsky.social. Wissenschaftsfreiheit könne nicht die Freiheit zu schweigen bedeuten. Vielmehr müssten Wissenschaftler*innen sich engagieren gegen eine bloße Meinungsmacht. Jetzt nachlesen:
www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c....

1 5

Reposted by Michael D. Krämer

Charles Driver @charlesdriver.bsky.social · May 28

Postdoc position open in Zurich -- Prof. Martin Tomasik and I have a joint SNF project on interpretable neural network approaches for large scale, complex item / temporal structure, online learning / cognitive development data.

Please retweet.

tinyurl.com/PostdocGNNSNF

19 24

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · May 26

Study 1 data also available on OSF! 👀

1

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · May 26

SOEP-IS release 2023: www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c....

DIW Berlin: SOEP-IS 2023 – DIPS3_DAILY: Daily Diaries and Smartphone Sensing on the Daily Level (DIPS Project)

www.diw.de

1

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · May 26

Amazing team 🙏, with @yannickroos.com, @ramonaschoedel.bsky.social, Mitja Back, and @drichter77.bsky.social. Without them this paper and data collection wouldn‘t have been possible. Btw, the combined experience sampling and mobile sensing data of Study 2 are now openly available as part of the

1 2

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · May 26

mobile sensing, affiliation motive predicted a stronger momentary social
desire and future social interactions (but only when assessed with mobile sensing). See the open-access paper for more results including on the valence and voluntariness of social interactions: doi.apa.org/doi/10.1037/...

APA PsycNet

doi.apa.org

1 1 2

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · May 26

How do people differ in pursuing their social lives? In a new paper at JPSP, lead by Cornelia Wrzus, we examined the affiliation motive (and other social traits) as moderators of how people dynamically regulate their social interactions. Across two studies with experience sampling and

1 5 9

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · May 23

Especially skills and access to software other than R are currently lacking (Stata, Mplus, hell even SPSS😅)

1

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · May 23

Interested in the computational reproducibilty of research papers? @psychscience.bsky.social Psych Science is looking to extend their network of people providing checks of reviewed manuscrips: www.psychologicalscience.org/publications...

Call for Volunteers: Psychological Science REPEAT Network

Are you passionate about ensuring the reproducibility of scientific research? The journal Psychological Science is looking for volunteers to join REPEAT—our new network of computational reproducibilit...

www.psychologicalscience.org

1 4 3

Reposted by Michael D. Krämer

Ted Schwaba @tedmond.bsky.social · May 20

Extremely excited to share the first effort of the Revived Genomics of Personality Consortium: A highly-powered, comprehensive GWAS of the Big Five personality traits in 1.14 million participants from 46 cohorts. www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...

5 71 160

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · Apr 28

Now published at EJP: doi.org/10.1177/0890...

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · Sep 9

Still friends with people you randomly met in a university study group? 👯🧑‍🎓 In this preprint with André Kretzschmar,
@chopwood.bsky.social, and
@wiebkeb.bsky.social, we looked at social influences on personality change in a design that randomized first-semester students to peer groups (1/4)

1 6

Reposted by Michael D. Krämer

Georg Henning @georghenning.bsky.social · Apr 24

New preprint with @rebiweidmann.bsky.social @sophiepotter.bsky.social Dikla Segel-Karpas and Jenna Wünsche:

"When you're with me, baby, the skies will be blue for all my life? A dyadic longitudinal study of relationship happiness through midlife"

osf.io/preprints/ps...
(1/5)

OSF

osf.io

1 2 13

Reposted by Michael D. Krämer

Maike Luhmann @maikeluhmann.bsky.social · Apr 8

🚨 Job alert - please share!

I'm looking for a doctoral researcher (3 years, 75%) to join my #ERC project #Loneliness across time and space (LOTIS) at @ruhr-uni-bochum.de, starting June 1 or later.

Details in thread 👇

#PsychSciSky

3 48 40

Reposted by Michael D. Krämer

Amanda J. Wright @ajwright.bsky.social · Mar 13

New preprint!

Ever heard that personality doesn't change? Do you believe that? (you shouldn't)

Using data from an online survey (n = 887) & eight longitudinal datasets (n = 166,971), we compared perceived vs. actual lifespan changes in personality and 20+ individual differences (1/8)
osf.io/ytmxp

OSF

osf.io

6 27 84

Michael D. Krämer @mdkraemer.bsky.social · Mar 3

SOEP, and Australian HILDA data 🇳🇱🇩🇪🇦🇺