Mick
@mickmca32.bsky.social
Widowed father of three living in Co Armagh
Reposted by Mick
Have remodelled this slightly today to account for Estimated 2016 EU Referendum results when modelling Reform UK vote distribution.
New Projection is below (view link in above post to explore in detail).
New Projection is below (view link in above post to explore in detail).
January 5, 2026 at 6:38 PM
Have remodelled this slightly today to account for Estimated 2016 EU Referendum results when modelling Reform UK vote distribution.
New Projection is below (view link in above post to explore in detail).
New Projection is below (view link in above post to explore in detail).
Reposted by Mick
My Seat Model:
PLC: 39
RFM: 30
LAB: 11
CON: 10
GRN: 4
LDM: 2
49 Needed for a Majority (PLC+LAB = 50).
PLC: 39
RFM: 30
LAB: 11
CON: 10
GRN: 4
LDM: 2
49 Needed for a Majority (PLC+LAB = 50).
January 6, 2026 at 4:40 PM
My Seat Model:
PLC: 39
RFM: 30
LAB: 11
CON: 10
GRN: 4
LDM: 2
49 Needed for a Majority (PLC+LAB = 50).
PLC: 39
RFM: 30
LAB: 11
CON: 10
GRN: 4
LDM: 2
49 Needed for a Majority (PLC+LAB = 50).
Reposted by Mick
Israel’s strategic posture favors a constant state of war over political deals that might constrain future aggression. Its recognition of Somaliland is part of this strategy, and an attempt to plant the first flag of its would-be empire in Africa.
mondoweiss.net/2026/01/how-...
#Palestine #Israel
mondoweiss.net/2026/01/how-...
#Palestine #Israel
How Israel’s move in Somaliland fits in its broader strategy for regional dominance
Israel’s strategic posture favors a constant state of war over political deals that might constrain future aggression. Its recognition of Somaliland is part of this strategy, and an attempt to plant...
mondoweiss.net
January 6, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Israel’s strategic posture favors a constant state of war over political deals that might constrain future aggression. Its recognition of Somaliland is part of this strategy, and an attempt to plant the first flag of its would-be empire in Africa.
mondoweiss.net/2026/01/how-...
#Palestine #Israel
mondoweiss.net/2026/01/how-...
#Palestine #Israel
Reposted by Mick
Platforms/social media communities that distribute Child Sexual Abuse Material usually make the news when story breaks about how the owners have been arrested as part a pan national police operation involving multiple agencies from different countries. Yet, now, CSAM is now openly available on X.
it is just so 🥴🥴🥴 to me that governments and law enforcement bodies across the world have to be begged and pleaded with to even consider investigating what is quite literally sexual crime on an unbelievable scale, taking place openly on one of the most popular digital platforms in the world.
January 6, 2026 at 3:59 PM
Platforms/social media communities that distribute Child Sexual Abuse Material usually make the news when story breaks about how the owners have been arrested as part a pan national police operation involving multiple agencies from different countries. Yet, now, CSAM is now openly available on X.
Reposted by Mick
Your Party MP @jeremycorbyn.bsky.social has said the government is 'devoid of morality' over its failure to condemn the kidnapping of Maduro.
Jeremy Corbyn brands government ‘devoid of morality’ over failure to condemn kidnapping of Maduro
"Bombing a sovereign nation and kidnapping its president is a blatant and flagrant violation of international law"
leftfootforward.org
January 6, 2026 at 5:04 PM
Your Party MP @jeremycorbyn.bsky.social has said the government is 'devoid of morality' over its failure to condemn the kidnapping of Maduro.
Reposted by Mick
Civil society call for an investigation into X in Ireland
Things stepping up.
ICCL and Digital Rights Ireland have written to the Garda Commissioner calling for an urgent investigation of X.
ICCL and Digital Rights Ireland have written to the Garda Commissioner calling for an urgent investigation of X.
January 6, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Civil society call for an investigation into X in Ireland
Reposted by Mick
Hmm, the Trump regime says here “communities know what’s best for them, and the Administration is clear that local infrastructure decisions remain with states and localities." In its EO issued just 2 months ago, it said it will sue any state that fails to support its “AI dominance” agenda.
The data center rebellion is here, and it’s reshaping the political landscape
Backlash over the proliferation of data centers has entered the national political conversation and could affect voters of all political persuasions in this year’s midterm elections.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 6, 2026 at 5:04 PM
Hmm, the Trump regime says here “communities know what’s best for them, and the Administration is clear that local infrastructure decisions remain with states and localities." In its EO issued just 2 months ago, it said it will sue any state that fails to support its “AI dominance” agenda.
Reposted by Mick
🚨🚨"Trump’s pursuit of an illusory sphere of influence is unlikely to bring us peace or prosperity—any more than the invasion of Ukraine brought peace and prosperity to Russians- and this might become clear sooner than anyone expects." @anneapplebaum.bsky.social on #Trump's invasion of Venezuela:
January 6, 2026 at 5:41 AM
🚨🚨"Trump’s pursuit of an illusory sphere of influence is unlikely to bring us peace or prosperity—any more than the invasion of Ukraine brought peace and prosperity to Russians- and this might become clear sooner than anyone expects." @anneapplebaum.bsky.social on #Trump's invasion of Venezuela:
Reposted by Mick
Put otherwise: a world of countries behaving themselves, trading, and just more or less getting along should be the goal. In the long run, everyone wins in a world of boring, boring abundance.
January 6, 2026 at 4:35 PM
Put otherwise: a world of countries behaving themselves, trading, and just more or less getting along should be the goal. In the long run, everyone wins in a world of boring, boring abundance.
Reposted by Mick
The talk of the international law stuff is incredibly important in these matters, but it's also very much worth saying that the resource claim is nonsense. You are not rich because of resources. You are rich because of lots of people and machines and ideas working in concert across space and time.
January 6, 2026 at 4:33 PM
The talk of the international law stuff is incredibly important in these matters, but it's also very much worth saying that the resource claim is nonsense. You are not rich because of resources. You are rich because of lots of people and machines and ideas working in concert across space and time.
Reposted by Mick
This is important not just because it's true, but because it gives the lie to the idea that conquest is security. Stable institutions are WILDLY more valuable than any amount of undiscovered resources in, let's say, Greenland.
January 6, 2026 at 4:33 PM
This is important not just because it's true, but because it gives the lie to the idea that conquest is security. Stable institutions are WILDLY more valuable than any amount of undiscovered resources in, let's say, Greenland.
Reposted by Mick
What's the source of wealth? Human capital, institutions, knowledge. You can convince yourself that this matters more simply by looking at your laptop, which is largely made of cheap stuff, along with a tiny bit of gold, neodymium, etc. The value is in the pattern and the ability to construct it.
January 6, 2026 at 4:33 PM
What's the source of wealth? Human capital, institutions, knowledge. You can convince yourself that this matters more simply by looking at your laptop, which is largely made of cheap stuff, along with a tiny bit of gold, neodymium, etc. The value is in the pattern and the ability to construct it.
Reposted by Mick
We used a world bank estimate, which found about 2.5% of wealth is in resources, most of which is fossil fuels. This is part of why oil companies aren't even in the top ten by market cap, unless you count state-backed monopoly, Saudi Aramco.
January 6, 2026 at 4:33 PM
We used a world bank estimate, which found about 2.5% of wealth is in resources, most of which is fossil fuels. This is part of why oil companies aren't even in the top ten by market cap, unless you count state-backed monopoly, Saudi Aramco.
Reposted by Mick
So, something we got into a bit for the space book is the idea of resources as the source of wealth, because (a) it's widely believed, and (b) it's a claim used to justify all sorts of outlandish space ideas.
The short version is that resources are a teeny tiny fraction of wealth.
The short version is that resources are a teeny tiny fraction of wealth.
January 6, 2026 at 4:33 PM
So, something we got into a bit for the space book is the idea of resources as the source of wealth, because (a) it's widely believed, and (b) it's a claim used to justify all sorts of outlandish space ideas.
The short version is that resources are a teeny tiny fraction of wealth.
The short version is that resources are a teeny tiny fraction of wealth.
Reposted by Mick
The US show of power in Venezuela could make a Ukraine ceasefire less likely, despite new Paris talks on Western peacekeeping troops.
Venezuela coup endangers EU efforts on Ukraine ceasefire
The US show of power in Venezuela could make a Ukraine ceasefire less likely, despite new Paris talks on Western peacekeeping troops.
euobserver.com
January 6, 2026 at 5:11 PM
The US show of power in Venezuela could make a Ukraine ceasefire less likely, despite new Paris talks on Western peacekeeping troops.
Reposted by Mick
Yup, this. Same old UK debate with itself over EU relations.
"But the problem is that, while the UK might be changing its outlook on the relationship, the EU is not."
✍️ Following the strong rhetoric used by Starmer in his interview with @bbclaurak.bsky.social, @jreland.bsky.social explains why it isn't quite that simple
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/new-year-sam...
✍️ Following the strong rhetoric used by Starmer in his interview with @bbclaurak.bsky.social, @jreland.bsky.social explains why it isn't quite that simple
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/new-year-sam...
New year, same old Brexit trade-offs - UK in a changing Europe
Joël Reland argues that while the UK has indicated that it is keen to align more closely with the EU, the inherent tradeoffs remain the same as the EU will not allow the UK to 'cherry pick' further ac...
ukandeu.ac.uk
January 6, 2026 at 11:44 AM
Yup, this. Same old UK debate with itself over EU relations.
Reposted by Mick
No new visa waivers can be signed outside of Schengen by member states.
None have.
It is comedy to think that they can be.
That is the functioning. We have pooled sovereignty on visa waivers.
11
None have.
It is comedy to think that they can be.
That is the functioning. We have pooled sovereignty on visa waivers.
11
January 3, 2026 at 8:02 PM
No new visa waivers can be signed outside of Schengen by member states.
None have.
It is comedy to think that they can be.
That is the functioning. We have pooled sovereignty on visa waivers.
11
None have.
It is comedy to think that they can be.
That is the functioning. We have pooled sovereignty on visa waivers.
11
Reposted by Mick
Use of these agreements is miniscule (and hard). The expectation is that people either visit in their normal Schengen allocation, or get a visa. As you'd expect.
So can these waivers allow Britons to visit Europe would restrictions and. registration?
10
So can these waivers allow Britons to visit Europe would restrictions and. registration?
10
January 3, 2026 at 8:01 PM
Use of these agreements is miniscule (and hard). The expectation is that people either visit in their normal Schengen allocation, or get a visa. As you'd expect.
So can these waivers allow Britons to visit Europe would restrictions and. registration?
10
So can these waivers allow Britons to visit Europe would restrictions and. registration?
10
Reposted by Mick
Otherwise, a pre-Schengen visa waiver allows you to stay (not work) in, say, Spain for a period on top of your Schengen visa waiver.
If you can 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 (a lot stricter under EES).
You can't dodge it.
9
If you can 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 (a lot stricter under EES).
You can't dodge it.
9
January 3, 2026 at 8:01 PM
Otherwise, a pre-Schengen visa waiver allows you to stay (not work) in, say, Spain for a period on top of your Schengen visa waiver.
If you can 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 (a lot stricter under EES).
You can't dodge it.
9
If you can 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 (a lot stricter under EES).
You can't dodge it.
9
Reposted by Mick
So what are the bilateral treaties? As I said, the formation or Schengen was haphazard, so rather than harmonising from the off, the states grandfathered in some prior bilateral visa-waiver agreements.
The vast vast majority of these concern diplomatic passports, and are not relevant.
8
The vast vast majority of these concern diplomatic passports, and are not relevant.
8
January 3, 2026 at 8:01 PM
So what are the bilateral treaties? As I said, the formation or Schengen was haphazard, so rather than harmonising from the off, the states grandfathered in some prior bilateral visa-waiver agreements.
The vast vast majority of these concern diplomatic passports, and are not relevant.
8
The vast vast majority of these concern diplomatic passports, and are not relevant.
8
Reposted by Mick
"Oh, and, ah, by the way, Mr Montalban... How come the member states have so many bilateral agreements when the body was found on the 87th day?"
This is the fantasy endemic in the exceptionalists - that the UK can just sign bilateral agreements outside of Schengen and the UK can ignore Schengen.
7
This is the fantasy endemic in the exceptionalists - that the UK can just sign bilateral agreements outside of Schengen and the UK can ignore Schengen.
7
January 3, 2026 at 8:01 PM
"Oh, and, ah, by the way, Mr Montalban... How come the member states have so many bilateral agreements when the body was found on the 87th day?"
This is the fantasy endemic in the exceptionalists - that the UK can just sign bilateral agreements outside of Schengen and the UK can ignore Schengen.
7
This is the fantasy endemic in the exceptionalists - that the UK can just sign bilateral agreements outside of Schengen and the UK can ignore Schengen.
7
Reposted by Mick
It functions because member states apply certain common rules at the border - such as the common visa waiver (90/180) and information sharing. To do otherwise would be illogical
It is hated by Trump, Putin, and exceptionalists as a sign of our unity (go on X or FB and see the anti-🇪🇺 squalor)
6
It is hated by Trump, Putin, and exceptionalists as a sign of our unity (go on X or FB and see the anti-🇪🇺 squalor)
6
January 3, 2026 at 8:01 PM
It functions because member states apply certain common rules at the border - such as the common visa waiver (90/180) and information sharing. To do otherwise would be illogical
It is hated by Trump, Putin, and exceptionalists as a sign of our unity (go on X or FB and see the anti-🇪🇺 squalor)
6
It is hated by Trump, Putin, and exceptionalists as a sign of our unity (go on X or FB and see the anti-🇪🇺 squalor)
6
Reposted by Mick
In 1999 the convention was brought under European law. Schengen now became part of the acquis, the body of law accession states have to adopt. It has expanded to include 31 member states.
Even traditional solo runners like CH love the advantages of Schengen
5
Even traditional solo runners like CH love the advantages of Schengen
5
January 3, 2026 at 8:01 PM
In 1999 the convention was brought under European law. Schengen now became part of the acquis, the body of law accession states have to adopt. It has expanded to include 31 member states.
Even traditional solo runners like CH love the advantages of Schengen
5
Even traditional solo runners like CH love the advantages of Schengen
5
Reposted by Mick
At the time there was no sense of what Schengen would become. It was not planned. It can feel a little bit dishevelled as a result, as harmonisation has taken place over time.
This is quite normal for international treaties and organisations, which become honed with use.
4
This is quite normal for international treaties and organisations, which become honed with use.
4
January 3, 2026 at 8:01 PM
At the time there was no sense of what Schengen would become. It was not planned. It can feel a little bit dishevelled as a result, as harmonisation has taken place over time.
This is quite normal for international treaties and organisations, which become honed with use.
4
This is quite normal for international treaties and organisations, which become honed with use.
4
Reposted by Mick
The Schengen convention is European law. But it didn't start out that way.
The Schengen agreement was originally signed in 1985, with Germany and France linking up with the Benelux countries, where open borders were already the norm.
3
The Schengen agreement was originally signed in 1985, with Germany and France linking up with the Benelux countries, where open borders were already the norm.
3
January 3, 2026 at 8:01 PM
The Schengen convention is European law. But it didn't start out that way.
The Schengen agreement was originally signed in 1985, with Germany and France linking up with the Benelux countries, where open borders were already the norm.
3
The Schengen agreement was originally signed in 1985, with Germany and France linking up with the Benelux countries, where open borders were already the norm.
3