Miguel Chanco
@miguelchanco.bsky.social
Chief EM Asia Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics | India and ASEAN | Alumnus of RSIS, NTU | Adopted Brit | via SGP | Est. QC, Philippines
📍Newcastle, UK
📍Newcastle, UK
Pretty much a given, this: business.inquirer.net/561851/slow-.... Main question is by how much. We still think a big front-loaded 50bp salvo is on the table.
#Philippines
#Philippines
Slow growth boosts Dec. 11 rate cut likelihood, says Bangko Sentral chief
Eli Remolona Jr. —CONTRIBUTED PHOTO
MANILA, Philippines — Growing expectations of a slow 2025 economic growth increased the odds of another interest rate cut at the Dec. 11 policy meeting of
business.inquirer.net
December 3, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Pretty much a given, this: business.inquirer.net/561851/slow-.... Main question is by how much. We still think a big front-loaded 50bp salvo is on the table.
#Philippines
#Philippines
Great: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... This really should be quite a regular exercise for a fast-growing economy like #India's.
Govt eases 'small company' rules, more firms to benefit
The government has expanded the definition of small companies. This change allows more businesses to benefit from easier compliance rules and quicker merger processes. Companies with paid-up capital u...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
December 3, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Great: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... This really should be quite a regular exercise for a fast-growing economy like #India's.
Colleague, Meekita's, latest on #Taiwan's revised Q3 GDP numbers: buff.ly/GTqe8RM. No changes to our core view; sustained headline slowdown should still start this quarter, though the risks are to the upside.
December 3, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Colleague, Meekita's, latest on #Taiwan's revised Q3 GDP numbers: buff.ly/GTqe8RM. No changes to our core view; sustained headline slowdown should still start this quarter, though the risks are to the upside.
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#ASEAN's PMI still flying, but we see a few big holes in this story" www.pantheonmacro.com/documents/em...
December 2, 2025 at 4:41 PM
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#ASEAN's PMI still flying, but we see a few big holes in this story" www.pantheonmacro.com/documents/em...
One would not have to defend it if it was actually robust: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy....
#India
#India
India’s GDP data robust, new series in February
Officials said extensive data inputs with around 700 granular indicators are used for the quarterly estimates.
economictimes.indiatimes.com
December 2, 2025 at 6:19 AM
One would not have to defend it if it was actually robust: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy....
#India
#India
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#India's labour codes—alone—are no quick fix to unlock farm dominance" www.pantheonmacro.com/documents/em...
December 1, 2025 at 2:05 PM
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#India's labour codes—alone—are no quick fix to unlock farm dominance" www.pantheonmacro.com/documents/em...
Time to extend all our headline deflation forecasts for #Thailand: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...
Power price cut to bring in the New Year
The Energy Regulatory Commission has cut the electricity tariff from 3.94 to 3.88 baht per unit for the January-April 2026 billing period.
www.bangkokpost.com
December 1, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Time to extend all our headline deflation forecasts for #Thailand: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...
...but this is about 0.3pp above what the BPS is allowed to print: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202....
#Indonesia
#Indonesia
BI projects 5.3% GDP growth for 2026 - Economy - The Jakarta Post
Inflation is projected to remain within the current target range of 1.5 to 3.5 percent for the next two years, while loan growth is expected to reach 8 to 12 percent in 2026.
www.thejakartapost.com
December 1, 2025 at 1:54 PM
...but this is about 0.3pp above what the BPS is allowed to print: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202....
#Indonesia
#Indonesia
I mean, they really should: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... But who knows how much of the Q3 GDP Kool-aid the #RBI has swallowed since Friday.
RBI MPC 2025 ET Poll: Rate cut likely amid low inflation, high growth; tough call for Malhotra & co.
RBI MPC 2025: India's economy shows strong growth and record low inflation. This presents a challenge for the Reserve Bank of India's upcoming monetary policy meeting. Economists are divided on whethe...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
December 1, 2025 at 1:48 PM
I mean, they really should: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... But who knows how much of the Q3 GDP Kool-aid the #RBI has swallowed since Friday.
"Slow burn" if you want me to choose: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... FWIW, we're expecting 6.8% in about 30 mins time.
#India
#India
Q2 GDP blockbuster or slow burn? India braces for Friday show
India Q2 GDP: India's Gross Domestic Product numbers for the second quarter are set to be released on Friday. Expectations are high for a robust growth figure, possibly surpassing the Reserve Bank of ...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:58 AM
"Slow burn" if you want me to choose: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... FWIW, we're expecting 6.8% in about 30 mins time.
#India
#India
Inadvertently getting the fiscal consolidation process back on track due to more hesitant spending post-ICI formation: business.inquirer.net/560351/govt-.... Every cloud has a silver lining, I guess.
#Philippines
#Philippines
Gov’t budget surplus swells in Oct due to weak revenues, spending
Bureau of the Treasury
MANILA, Philippines — The swell in the national government’s October budget surplus masked a softer fiscal picture amid the flood control corruption
business.inquirer.net
November 27, 2025 at 5:28 AM
Inadvertently getting the fiscal consolidation process back on track due to more hesitant spending post-ICI formation: business.inquirer.net/560351/govt-.... Every cloud has a silver lining, I guess.
#Philippines
#Philippines
Thing is, even if #Indonesia is currently growing at around 5.5% this quarter in reality, history suggests that the BPS is unlikely to *print* anything above 5.2%, at most: jakartaglobe.id/business/ind...
Indonesia Expects Q4 GDP to Expand 5.4-5.6%
According to the government's estimates, the travel-related discounts will create around Rp 30 trillion in financial turnover.
jakartaglobe.id
November 27, 2025 at 5:24 AM
Thing is, even if #Indonesia is currently growing at around 5.5% this quarter in reality, history suggests that the BPS is unlikely to *print* anything above 5.2%, at most: jakartaglobe.id/business/ind...
It's almost like they're inviting another round of protests: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202.... Not a good look.
#Indonesia
#Indonesia
Wage-rule delays jolt businesses, rattle investment plans: Apindo - Regulations - The Jakarta Post
Businesses have urged the government to stick to the formula set out under Government Regulation No. 51/2023, which ties wage adjustments to regional economic growth, inflation and an index capturing ...
www.thejakartapost.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:22 AM
It's almost like they're inviting another round of protests: www.thejakartapost.com/business/202.... Not a good look.
#Indonesia
#Indonesia
I'm still all alone (with Moody's) at the bottom of the forecast range for #India's Q3 GDP print tomorrow: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... Expecting a 6.8% out-turn, FWIW.
Despite tariffs, India's Q2 FY26 GDP growth likely at 7.5%, higher than last year: Union Bank Report
India's economy is set for strong growth in the second quarter of the current financial year. GDP is expected to rise 7.5 percent, a significant jump from last year. Private sector activity remains ro...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:17 AM
I'm still all alone (with Moody's) at the bottom of the forecast range for #India's Q3 GDP print tomorrow: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... Expecting a 6.8% out-turn, FWIW.
Reposted by Miguel Chanco
Praise where praise is due: scrapping the two-child benefit cap is an excellent move. And the most consequential of any of the measures announced today.
November 26, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Praise where praise is due: scrapping the two-child benefit cap is an excellent move. And the most consequential of any of the measures announced today.
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#Thailand’s soft October exports mask resurgent US demand" buff.ly/nzu1cKC
November 26, 2025 at 9:27 AM
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#Thailand’s soft October exports mask resurgent US demand" buff.ly/nzu1cKC
A 7.9% call for Friday's GDP release in #India is... for the birds: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... (Apologies to my first ever employer.)
India sees an upward economic growth target revision with a warning on Trump tariffs
India's economic growth target for the fiscal year ending March 2026 is now 6.5 percent. This revision from Fitch-owned BMI comes after positive economic data. However, future growth faces potential c...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 26, 2025 at 7:01 AM
A 7.9% call for Friday's GDP release in #India is... for the birds: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... (Apologies to my first ever employer.)
Certainly needed, but surely this is the next government's call, no? Not the interim administration: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...
#Thailand
#Thailand
Thailand hurries B480bn in stalled projects to spur growth
The government is betting that speeding up 480 billion baht in stalled investment projects will help support economic momentum as it races to compete with regional peers for foreign capital.
www.bangkokpost.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Certainly needed, but surely this is the next government's call, no? Not the interim administration: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...
#Thailand
#Thailand
Important context regarding the big build-up in consumer credit in #India post-Covid: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy....
Household spending in India shifts towards asset-building, motor vehicles fastest-growing durable: PM's Economic Advisory Council
Indian households are spending more on assets like appliances and personal goods, moving away from clothing and footwear. Motor vehicle ownership is growing fast, with urban and rural areas catching u...
economictimes.indiatimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Important context regarding the big build-up in consumer credit in #India post-Covid: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy....
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#India's mixed November PMIs don't change the big H2 slowdown story" www.pantheonmacro.com/documents/em...
November 24, 2025 at 2:35 PM
My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#India's mixed November PMIs don't change the big H2 slowdown story" www.pantheonmacro.com/documents/em...
Finally, the September public infra reading - the number that matters and it stinks: business.inquirer.net/559849/govt-...
#Philippines
#Philippines
Gov’t infra spending plummets for 3rd straight month
MANILA, Philippines - Government infrastructure spending plummeted for the third consecutive month in September, falling 42.6 percent amid heightened scrutiny of public works due to the ongoing flood
business.inquirer.net
November 24, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Finally, the September public infra reading - the number that matters and it stinks: business.inquirer.net/559849/govt-...
#Philippines
#Philippines