Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 22h

Always fun to get an @andrewvandam.bsky.social read like this

Column | Why this one area of cities is usually the poorest

Research reveals industrial pollution’s historical link to urban poverty, with eastern parts of cities often more impoverished because of prevailing winds.

wapo.st

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Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 5d

We used to be a country

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Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 5d

I mean, they really nailed the headline this time

The Jobs Report That Wasn’t Leaves Economists Guessing

www.nytimes.com

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Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 5d

queso, what are we, monsters?

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Reposted by Mike Madowitz

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 6d

"The government shutdown is expected to delay the Labor Dept. report, leaving more questions about the health of the economy.

"Labor economist [me] said the jobs report... is the 'most important economic data release in the world. Period.'”
foxbaltimore.com/news/nation-...

The government shutdown is expected to delay the Labor Department report, leaving more questions about the health of the economy.

Labor economist Aaron Sojourner said the jobs report from the government, which comes out the first Friday of each month, is the “most important economic data release in the world. Period.”

Those monthly updates on the health of the American labor market are closely watched by investors to understand how the economy is changing.

“Billions of dollars of investment sort of shift on this report,” Sojourner said. “It's not perfect. It's an estimate. It's incredibly challenging to measure the 160 million, roughly, jobs in the economy in real time.”

But he said it’s the best available information at the time it’s released.

And the shutdown-induced delay in the release of the jobs data “clouds everyone's view of the economy.”

“Everybody is making high-stakes decisions with sort of worse information, worse visibility into what's happening around them,” said Sojourner, who works for the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

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Reposted by Mike Madowitz

Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 7d

Challenger hiring intentions for September way down vs last September — once employers hear that Congress cut taxes months ago I’m sure that’ll change:

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Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 7d

This is quote isn't super germane to the article, but you gotta respect @nicktimiraos.bsky.social for getting good material into a great writeup!

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 7d

"So you're saying there's a chance!"
-Kevin Hassett

MarketTwits @markettwits.bsky.social · 7d

HASSETT WANTS FED TO KEEP CUTTING RATES AGGRESSIVELY - PUNCHBOWL

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Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 7d

Matches BLS trend for the last 3 months.

The weird part is it doesn't make sense w/ HH survey--I wrote this up briefly for the limbic October jobs day rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/mixed-s...

Mixed Signals on Job Gains for Women - Roosevelt Institute

One of the bigger economic puzzles of 2025 is what is going on with women in the labor market. The monthly Employment Situation report uses two separate surveys—one for households and one for business...

rooseveltinstitute.org

Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 7d

Remember, it’s not a bubble til @elsevierconnect.bsky.social introduces vibe peer review

Microsoft launches ‘vibe working’ in Excel and Word

Vibe working is all about Office’s new Agent Mode.

www.theverge.com

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Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 7d

Have played this tool,
Have worked with Austin

Can confirm both are cool!

Austin Clemens @austinclemens2.bsky.social · 7d

This coming Monday, October 6th, I'm doing a 1 hour event talking about @equitablegrowth.bsky.social's inequality tracker and new gov data on inequality. Anyone can join, come check it out! (registration link in the next skeet)

A stacked bar graph showing the evolution of income for bottom 50% households over the course of the last economic expansion (2009-2019). It shows that these households saw their income growth by a bit less than 30%, compared to about 41% for top 10% households.

The stacked bars show what components of income made up this growth. About half was from wages, with most of the rest from increased transfer payments.

Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 7d

You: panicking about noosy ADP data
Me:
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/b...

Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 8d

If you care about public access to the best data in the world, you owe some thanks to Bill Beech, @ericagroshen.bsky.social and Friends of BLS today

www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

Statement of the Friends of BLS on the White House’s Withdrawal of Dr. Antoni’s Nomination — The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Following the withdrawal of Dr. Antoni’s nomination, the Friends of BLS urges President Trump to find a new nominee who possesses the key characteristics identified by the Friends in our statement of ...

www.friendsofbls.org

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Reposted by Mike Madowitz

David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 8d

Former Fed staffer(now ISI/Evercore) John Roberts' model-based analysis of Fed’s latest economic projections finds median SEP outlook reverses hawkish tilt introduced in June & is more clearly consistent with an approach of “looking through” the effects of tariffs on inflation.

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Reposted by Mike Madowitz

Elizabeth Weber Handwerker @elizwebhand.bsky.social · 8d

And now I start working my way through that list. I'm glad to have some extra time for home production in the middle of my holiday season, but frustrated to be forced to pause what I was in the middle of doing yesterday.

And I really don't like the look of this: kalshi.com/markets/kxgo...

Days of government shutdown | Trade on Kalshi

Track what Kalshi's markets predict for "Days of government shutdown", or trade it yourself.

kalshi.com

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Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 8d

🥳

Kieran Healy @kjhealy.co · 8d

Looks like someone sank the BLS mark.

White House withdraws Antoni’s nomination to lead BLS | CNN Politics

The White House has sent paperwork to the Senate to withdraw the nomination of E.J. Antoni as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, three sources told CNN.

www.cnn.com

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Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 8d

1 clear takeaway from JOLTS today:

If this is the last major economic data release before they stop for a government shutdown...It's a really bad time for a government shutdown

Elise Gould @elisegould.bsky.social · 8d

Latest #JOLTS data out this morning for August 2025 tells us job openings remained unchanged since July. Hires and quits both ticked down while layoffs and discharges held steady. The low hires rate is troubling, now at a rate similar to the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession.
#EconSky

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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 8d

This isn't a forecast/prediction but the timing of this shutdown and going into the dark on economic data in this moment gave me some flashbacks to Bush/Gore in Florida in Nov/Dec 2000. @hmeisler.bsky.social

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Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 8d

This is so good!

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 8d

Three responses I'm hearing a lot of here:
1. "Aha! Any excuse to hide the bad numbers!"
2. "The numbers were cooked anyway so who cares?"
3. "Fine, we'll just rely on private data."
Let's address all three in a 🧵:

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 8d

Friday's jobs report will provide key evidence on whether slower hiring is turning into deeper weakness in the labor market.
If there is a jobs report on Friday at all.
My story on how a shutdown could leave us flying blind at a vital moment for the economy. #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/b...

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Reposted by Mike Madowitz

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 8d

I'm in regular touch with people inside BLS who I'm confident would tell me if they were being pressured to change numbers.
(Are YOU a staffer at BLS or another stats agency with something I should know? Reach out!)

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Reposted by Mike Madowitz

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 8d

Friday's jobs report will provide key evidence on whether slower hiring is turning into deeper weakness in the labor market.
If there is a jobs report on Friday at all.
My story on how a shutdown could leave us flying blind at a vital moment for the economy. #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/b...

Government Shutdown Could Delay Economic Data at a Critical Moment

www.nytimes.com

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Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 9d

Not great!

US Economy Will Only Get Murkier If Key Data Is Delayed in Shutdown

Lawmakers are careening toward a shutdown of the federal government that could deprive policymakers, business leaders and investors of critical data they need to assess the state of the US economy.

www.bloomberg.com

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Mike Madowitz @mikemadowitz.bsky.social · 9d

[ominous music playing]

"A delay of the CPI release during October of each year might have an impact on the Cost of Living Adjustment announcement by the Social Security Administration."

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 9d

The Department of Labor has released its plan in the event of a government shutdown.
Key takeaway for econ data: There will NOT be a jobs report on Friday (or any subsequent data releases) if funding isn't restored in time. #NumbersDay #EconSky
www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov...

www.dol.gov

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Reposted by Mike Madowitz

Chabeli Carrazana @chabeli.bsky.social · 12d

In every category surveyed — groceries, housing, child care, medical bills and retirement — women are more likely to say they are worried about covering those expenses.

Latinas consistently reported higher rates of worry than any other group across nearly all categories
19thnews.org/2025/09/poll...

When it comes to rising costs, women are more worried than men — about everything

A new 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll found that women — especially women of color — were more worried about covering the cost of groceries, housing, medical bills, child care and rent.

19thnews.org

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Reposted by Mike Madowitz

michael röbbins @alienvsrobbins.bsky.social · 12d

repeating the phrase "full books" as I slam my head against my desk until I pass out

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