Mykola Bielieskov
@mykolabielieskov.bsky.social
Research fellow at National Institute for Strategic Studies under UA President, senior analyst at UA NGO “Come back alive”; all ideas tabled here are private position
Worst moment in UA-US bilateral relations since its inception as 🇺🇦 is waging war for its very existence.
How can we build mutually beneficial relations with US under this administration if 🇺🇦 President is not heard literally&UA rightful interests are disregarded in real time?
How can we build mutually beneficial relations with US under this administration if 🇺🇦 President is not heard literally&UA rightful interests are disregarded in real time?
February 28, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Worst moment in UA-US bilateral relations since its inception as 🇺🇦 is waging war for its very existence.
How can we build mutually beneficial relations with US under this administration if 🇺🇦 President is not heard literally&UA rightful interests are disregarded in real time?
How can we build mutually beneficial relations with US under this administration if 🇺🇦 President is not heard literally&UA rightful interests are disregarded in real time?
Btw what “mutual concessions by UA&RU for peace” as Trump team said mean in case of RU? There is unfortunately no specifics what RU shall cease to ask out of UA - only hints about what UA might be forced to sacrifice.
Geopolitical experiments paid by blood of Ukrainian Nation.
Geopolitical experiments paid by blood of Ukrainian Nation.
February 12, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Btw what “mutual concessions by UA&RU for peace” as Trump team said mean in case of RU? There is unfortunately no specifics what RU shall cease to ask out of UA - only hints about what UA might be forced to sacrifice.
Geopolitical experiments paid by blood of Ukrainian Nation.
Geopolitical experiments paid by blood of Ukrainian Nation.
All recent statements by Secretary of State Marco Rubio regarding UA-RU war are based on the misguided assumption that with this war dynamics situation is ripe for compromises and durable settlement. References to stalemate are best proof of this misguided idea. Thread 🧵
January 31, 2025 at 9:27 AM
All recent statements by Secretary of State Marco Rubio regarding UA-RU war are based on the misguided assumption that with this war dynamics situation is ripe for compromises and durable settlement. References to stalemate are best proof of this misguided idea. Thread 🧵
All these commemorations related to WWII end are just meaningless show as there is a war going on for 11th year which a kind of appeasement stretched in time.
As people would reiterate “Never again” mantra there is zero courage&leadership to prevent a catastrophe in making.
As people would reiterate “Never again” mantra there is zero courage&leadership to prevent a catastrophe in making.
January 27, 2025 at 12:06 PM
All these commemorations related to WWII end are just meaningless show as there is a war going on for 11th year which a kind of appeasement stretched in time.
As people would reiterate “Never again” mantra there is zero courage&leadership to prevent a catastrophe in making.
As people would reiterate “Never again” mantra there is zero courage&leadership to prevent a catastrophe in making.
After a 1 year pause it seems that it’s a high time to come back to this back up channel of communications.
December 6, 2024 at 2:06 PM
After a 1 year pause it seems that it’s a high time to come back to this back up channel of communications.
Escalation management as basis of Biden Admin policy to UA-RU big war is in contradiction with sound mil strategy which is about destroying enemy in defence&offence quicker than he recovers without giving him a chance to regroup&adjust. Sure gen Patton would have said just that.
November 10, 2023 at 2:08 PM
Escalation management as basis of Biden Admin policy to UA-RU big war is in contradiction with sound mil strategy which is about destroying enemy in defence&offence quicker than he recovers without giving him a chance to regroup&adjust. Sure gen Patton would have said just that.
If RU decides to conduct another major offensive these missiles both in cluster&unitary warheads versions might prove instrumental in easing pressure on frontline UA formations provided proper application.
SRBM ATACMS is surest way for US to sustain UA fighting in short order.
SRBM ATACMS is surest way for US to sustain UA fighting in short order.
November 10, 2023 at 12:17 PM
If RU decides to conduct another major offensive these missiles both in cluster&unitary warheads versions might prove instrumental in easing pressure on frontline UA formations provided proper application.
SRBM ATACMS is surest way for US to sustain UA fighting in short order.
SRBM ATACMS is surest way for US to sustain UA fighting in short order.
Good calculation
November 10, 2023 at 6:32 AM
Good calculation
Today 19th missile brigade of UA Defense Forces celebrated day of its establishment.
19th brigade employed SRBM Tochka-U against RU both in 2014-15 and after 24.02.
But before 2007 19th brigade had SRBM SCUD which Ukraine was pressed to scrap under nonproliferation rubric.
19th brigade employed SRBM Tochka-U against RU both in 2014-15 and after 24.02.
But before 2007 19th brigade had SRBM SCUD which Ukraine was pressed to scrap under nonproliferation rubric.
November 9, 2023 at 8:38 PM
Today 19th missile brigade of UA Defense Forces celebrated day of its establishment.
19th brigade employed SRBM Tochka-U against RU both in 2014-15 and after 24.02.
But before 2007 19th brigade had SRBM SCUD which Ukraine was pressed to scrap under nonproliferation rubric.
19th brigade employed SRBM Tochka-U against RU both in 2014-15 and after 24.02.
But before 2007 19th brigade had SRBM SCUD which Ukraine was pressed to scrap under nonproliferation rubric.
Headlines matter
WashPost - "As war frustrations rise, stalemate tests Zelensky and top general Zaluzhny"
NYT - "Zelensky Rebuke of Top General Signals Rift in Ukrainian Leadership"
Wording matters as unwarranted dramatising might do lot of harm related to people' perception.
WashPost - "As war frustrations rise, stalemate tests Zelensky and top general Zaluzhny"
NYT - "Zelensky Rebuke of Top General Signals Rift in Ukrainian Leadership"
Wording matters as unwarranted dramatising might do lot of harm related to people' perception.
November 8, 2023 at 2:21 PM
Headlines matter
WashPost - "As war frustrations rise, stalemate tests Zelensky and top general Zaluzhny"
NYT - "Zelensky Rebuke of Top General Signals Rift in Ukrainian Leadership"
Wording matters as unwarranted dramatising might do lot of harm related to people' perception.
WashPost - "As war frustrations rise, stalemate tests Zelensky and top general Zaluzhny"
NYT - "Zelensky Rebuke of Top General Signals Rift in Ukrainian Leadership"
Wording matters as unwarranted dramatising might do lot of harm related to people' perception.
Even before 24.02.22 it was obvious that RU is not interested in conventional arms control&confidence building measures as it turned into revisionist state with threat/use of mil force as prime instrument. So days of CFE treaty were numbered.
link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
Russia and Conventional Arms Control in Europe
The chapter gives a comprehensive review of Russia’s policy toward conventional arms control in Europe. In particular, the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty (CFE Treaty), Open Skies Treaty (O...
link.springer.com
November 8, 2023 at 10:56 AM
Even before 24.02.22 it was obvious that RU is not interested in conventional arms control&confidence building measures as it turned into revisionist state with threat/use of mil force as prime instrument. So days of CFE treaty were numbered.
link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
Unfortunately both people inside&outside of UA mostly concentrate on specific personalities analysing war dynamics instead of giving a thought to objective conditions. By this people miss really important things and how they shape limits of possible. Thread 🧵
November 5, 2023 at 2:04 PM
Unfortunately both people inside&outside of UA mostly concentrate on specific personalities analysing war dynamics instead of giving a thought to objective conditions. By this people miss really important things and how they shape limits of possible. Thread 🧵
What is clear by now is that “Prevent RU from winning, prevent UA from losing” favoured by Biden Admin is not sustainable strategy any more.
November 1, 2023 at 3:23 PM
What is clear by now is that “Prevent RU from winning, prevent UA from losing” favoured by Biden Admin is not sustainable strategy any more.
If UA can leverage demands of some Republicans that Biden Admin has to provide proper strategy of UA victory to complement with another major military aid package it will be a kind of unexpected positive development under really dire conditions.
November 1, 2023 at 2:52 PM
If UA can leverage demands of some Republicans that Biden Admin has to provide proper strategy of UA victory to complement with another major military aid package it will be a kind of unexpected positive development under really dire conditions.
105 years ago today as A-H empire collapsed UAs seized key administrative buildings in Lviv to declare West Ukrainian People’ Republic.
Ukraine didn’t come out of blue in 1991. Our claim to statehood is based on feats of people who in 1917-18 made clear desire for independence.
Ukraine didn’t come out of blue in 1991. Our claim to statehood is based on feats of people who in 1917-18 made clear desire for independence.
November 1, 2023 at 11:48 AM
105 years ago today as A-H empire collapsed UAs seized key administrative buildings in Lviv to declare West Ukrainian People’ Republic.
Ukraine didn’t come out of blue in 1991. Our claim to statehood is based on feats of people who in 1917-18 made clear desire for independence.
Ukraine didn’t come out of blue in 1991. Our claim to statehood is based on feats of people who in 1917-18 made clear desire for independence.
Sustained flow along with wise employment of SRBM ATACMS even with cluster munitions warhead is not a silver bullet itself but it might create new dilemmas for RU grouping of forces and new openings for UA Defense Forces to exploit.
November 1, 2023 at 6:08 AM
Sustained flow along with wise employment of SRBM ATACMS even with cluster munitions warhead is not a silver bullet itself but it might create new dilemmas for RU grouping of forces and new openings for UA Defense Forces to exploit.
Instead of just admitting fact that UA 2023 campaign results have proven to be modest despite huge sacrifice, true UA friends shall initiate substantive debate how better align UA political goals, capabilities&combat proficiency for 2024 campaign.
October 31, 2023 at 4:00 PM
Instead of just admitting fact that UA 2023 campaign results have proven to be modest despite huge sacrifice, true UA friends shall initiate substantive debate how better align UA political goals, capabilities&combat proficiency for 2024 campaign.
UA not only surrendered strat&tac nukes+delivery means but things like SRBMs SCUD&bombers Tu-22M3. UA was weakened under nonproliferation/disarmament rubric with no hard security guarantees in NATO. It was ok when RU was weak. But it proved disastrous when RU recovered.
October 31, 2023 at 1:05 PM
UA not only surrendered strat&tac nukes+delivery means but things like SRBMs SCUD&bombers Tu-22M3. UA was weakened under nonproliferation/disarmament rubric with no hard security guarantees in NATO. It was ok when RU was weak. But it proved disastrous when RU recovered.
Year ago UA’s ability to exploit RU’s miscalculations&mistakes was treated as synonymous to idea that UA had somehow gained decisive qualitative&quantitative advantage over RU and strategic initiative. This kind of misinterpretation is the source of all problems down the road.
October 31, 2023 at 6:36 AM
Year ago UA’s ability to exploit RU’s miscalculations&mistakes was treated as synonymous to idea that UA had somehow gained decisive qualitative&quantitative advantage over RU and strategic initiative. This kind of misinterpretation is the source of all problems down the road.
Instead of trying to suggest some ways out of obvious strategic dilemmas UA faces (which have been discussed for some time ago) all TIME journalist managed to do is to repackage known problems in just another “revelation” article. That’s the level of journalism we deserve. 🤦♂️
October 30, 2023 at 6:26 PM
Instead of trying to suggest some ways out of obvious strategic dilemmas UA faces (which have been discussed for some time ago) all TIME journalist managed to do is to repackage known problems in just another “revelation” article. That’s the level of journalism we deserve. 🤦♂️
After gen Christopher Cavoli admitted to US lawmakers behind closed doors at sidelines of Munich SecConf 2023 that UA deep fight capabilities need to be strengthened UA Commander in Chief increased interaction with gen Cavoli who think like true military man not politician.
October 27, 2023 at 7:36 AM
After gen Christopher Cavoli admitted to US lawmakers behind closed doors at sidelines of Munich SecConf 2023 that UA deep fight capabilities need to be strengthened UA Commander in Chief increased interaction with gen Cavoli who think like true military man not politician.
Hope CEE countries (which either possess/going to acquire M142/270) give a thought of establishing joint GMLRS production under agreement with Lockheed Martin with proper offsets and localisation. Bargaining position of CEE countries would be quite persuasive.
October 26, 2023 at 1:39 PM
Hope CEE countries (which either possess/going to acquire M142/270) give a thought of establishing joint GMLRS production under agreement with Lockheed Martin with proper offsets and localisation. Bargaining position of CEE countries would be quite persuasive.
Most of people think in terms of costs/risks of specific action instead of costs/risks of inaction. Unfortunately.
In some distant future people will agree that admitting UA into NATO would have been much cheaper than just transferring billion dollars of arms under Israeli model.
In some distant future people will agree that admitting UA into NATO would have been much cheaper than just transferring billion dollars of arms under Israeli model.
October 23, 2023 at 3:09 PM
Most of people think in terms of costs/risks of specific action instead of costs/risks of inaction. Unfortunately.
In some distant future people will agree that admitting UA into NATO would have been much cheaper than just transferring billion dollars of arms under Israeli model.
In some distant future people will agree that admitting UA into NATO would have been much cheaper than just transferring billion dollars of arms under Israeli model.
Reposted by Mykola Bielieskov
A cogent and insightful summary of where Ukraine’s strategy may be heading for 2024.
October 22, 2023 at 9:48 AM
A cogent and insightful summary of where Ukraine’s strategy may be heading for 2024.
I just want to acclaim WSJ&The Economist which have not turned a blind eye on ongoing UA-RU war. Let be honest most of media “got bored” with war where little terrain change hands. Covering ME is right. What is not - to pretend that biggest war in Europe somehow settled itself.
October 21, 2023 at 9:15 AM
I just want to acclaim WSJ&The Economist which have not turned a blind eye on ongoing UA-RU war. Let be honest most of media “got bored” with war where little terrain change hands. Covering ME is right. What is not - to pretend that biggest war in Europe somehow settled itself.