From Open Mind (Tamino): > **In truly fascinatingnew research, scientists have searched historical records to collect data about when the grape harvest began each year. Their research wasn’t published in the Journal of French Wine (I don’t know if there even is one), it was published in the journal Climate of the Past. That’s because the date when the grape harvest begins is a clue to temperature.**** > **** > ****The importance of clues like this is that they extend farther back in time than thermometer records. The grape harvest dates (GHD) start in the year 1354 — centuries before the thermometer was even invented. Also quite important: they are all for the same location: Beaune, France.**** > **** > ****When the temperature is hotter, the grapes are ready to harvest earlier. When it’s colder, they harvest later. If climate is really heating up, the grape harvest should be getting earlier. And what did they find? This:** > **I can also estimate the trend with a smoothing function, and regular readers know I’m fond of the lowess smooth (but different methods give essentially the same result):** > **It fluctuated before 1978 — real data does that — but since 1978 it has been declining precipitously [by about half a day a year]._This is not natural. It’s because of man-made climate change._**** > **** > ****We can get an “image” of how this indicates temperature has changed throughout the years, simply by turning the graph upside down:** > **That is one steep rise since 1978. Just as obvious as the recent steep rise, is the _lack_ of such things in the previous 600 years. _This is not natural_. It’s man-made climate change. Does the shape of this graph remind you of anything? Maybe … something like … a hockey stick?**** > **** > ****Whenever new evidence of climate change emerges, climate deniers try to dispute it by any means necessary. They especially hate anything that looks like a hockey stick because it shows so clearly how what’s happening today is not like what we’ve seen before. It’s not natural. Perhaps they’ll claim that French wine-grapes are communists who want to destroy our freedom and impose world government.**

By Greg Perry

It was a landmark moment in queer art, painted when homosexuality was illegal in California. As this famous painting of Christopher Isherwood and Don Backardy goes under the hammer, the surviving sitter looks back

Doug and I were inseparable. He taught me a lot about human relationships, and how we are never too ugly to be loved

Every name on a list compiled by health authorities in Gaza of the child victims of Israel’s offensive

From Professor Ray Wills: > **Only excuse for politicians who** > > * **continue subsidies on costly fossil fuels** > * **think nuclear power is cheap** > * **claim clean energy is expensive** > * **want to end decarbonisation?** > > > **Idiots** > > **Only idiots ignore the data** > > **My model projections from 2018, and updated 2025:** Prof Will wasn't 100% correct in his forecasts back in 2018 (nearly 8 years ago). Other the other hand, he was among the least wrong. The IEA (International Energy Agency), for example, consistently, year after year, underestimated the growth in renewables, and overestimated the growth in demand for fossil fuels. I myself thought that emissions from coal peaked in 2018, and instead there was a surge in electricity generation from coal in China. You can read about my latest forecast that emissions have peaked, here. --- 2018 forecasts Wills sees oil peaking in 2027, and coal and gas peaking now. --- 2025 forecasts Note that the two charts below show primary energy consumption, which is much more than, say, electricity production, because three-quarters of the fuel burnt to generate electricity or to power an ICEV is wasted as heat. --- 2018 forecasts --- 2025 forecasts You'll notice that Wills doesn't think nuclear will grow: > **Most important reason nuclear isn't viable in one graph** > > **Apart from long build, it's expensive electricity, [and]if it's really hot, you need to turn them off** > > > Not to mention that all the lethal by-products. > **Global solar output overtook nuclear output 2025** > > **Global wind output will pass nuclear output early 2028** > > **Now here's where some peeps lose it and call me a loony:** > **[In] my model projection, renewable[s] will pass fossil fuel primary energy consumption in 2035** Does that mean that we will have halved emissions by then? No, because there is still growth in demand. But each year that the share of renewables rises means that demand growth will be increasingly supplied by renewables.

The chart below shows the GDP-weighted average of the "Big 8" whole-economy PMI. This is a good guide to what's happening in the world economy, as the Big 8 (the USA, UK, China, Japan, Euro Zone, Brazil, India and Russia) make up ~70% of world GDP. After strengthening since April last year, the Big 8 PMI dipped in September, for the first time since April. The recovery which began in April was in response to the levelling off and then the decline in world Central Bank discount rates. Without Trump's tariff wars and the uncertainty induced by random, rapid policy changes, this recovery would, typically, be strengthening and accelerating. Instead, it's faltering. Yes, it's just one month. It _might_ reverse itself next month. And yes, China is strengthening, apparently. But Russia is in deep trouble, Brazil is sliding fast into recession, the UK is down for the second month, and the US is faltering. An October uptick is entirely possible. Yet, it is not terribly probable, and is likely to be followed (in my opinion) by another fall. We have two forces offsetting each other: the logical and normal upturn (with the usual lag) after interest rates start falling, and the slump caused by Trump's trade wars and resulting heightened uncertainty. Nothing about the Trump administration heightens confidence; everything suggests to business and consumers that spending delay would be prudent and wise. I think the fears about the consequences of Trump's policies are winning over the lagged response to interest rates. And of course, that is self-feeding. As economies slow, spending falls further, and the economy slows even more. Remember: everyone's spending is someone else's income. The traditional way to break that nexus is to cut interest rates and to increase government spending and cut taxes. Instead, Trump's tariffs have hit the US economy with a swingeing tax _increase_ and big _cuts to government spending_ , i.e., a significant fiscal _tightening_. And even if the Fed cuts the Fed Funds rate (and there is no guarantee that it will, as long as inflation is rising), the economy responds with a lag. It's very hard to see this ending well. --- Click on the chart to see a bigger and clearer image As a matter of interest, look what's happening in Brazil. Brazil's Central Bank raised interest rates. Trump hit them with a 50% tariff, and Argentina (a key trade partner) went into free-fall. Notice how deep the 2016 downturn was, when America "sneezed" and Brazil "caught a cold" (had a deep recession.)

Town Hall and State Library train stations join Anzac, Arden and Parkville as city waits for launch date of long-awaited rail line

August data for China's EV/PHEV/EREV* sales are flat. That's mostly due to weak overall car registrations (down 9% YoY in August). But the percentage is also declining, though the latest month shows a tiny uptick. I seasonally adjust these time series, but because Chinese new year can sometimes be in January and sometimes in February, it's tricky to get entirely reliable seasonal factors. This has been complicated by multiple Covid lockdowns. Sometimes the NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) publishes data for one month, sometimes an average for both January and February, and sometimes no data at all for those two months. I might actually just default to fitting a centred 12-month moving average to the data. In the meantime, for what it's worth, here are the charts. *EREV = extended range electric vehicle. A petrol motor drives a generator which charges the battery when it is empty. These produce fewer emissions than plug-in hybrids, because plug-in hybrids from some manufacturers use both the electric and the petrol engine to get better performance out of the PHEV.

> **For sandy coastlines, the rule of thumb is about one metre lost for each centimetre of sea level rise.** (From a news article about how some WA (West Australian) home owners face financial ruin as the sea level rises.) I've noticed at my local beach (Inverloch, in Victoria) that there is already serious coastal erosion, with dunes being washed away at their bases and whole beaches simply disappearing. This report is from the other end of Australia. And it's happening there too. > **Engineering consultants have warned residents in the coastal Shire of Gingin that governments could force them out when the sea renders their homes unsafe, and could well decide to provide no compensation for homes rendered worthless or taken by the sea. > > State policy dictates a controversial process of “managed retreat” for already-developed areas at risk of coastal erosion due to sea level rise. This means public infrastructure is gradually dismantled and moved behind hazard lines, and private properties are surrendered to the sea when utilities or access points are lost. > > Hard protections such as groynes and seawalls are considered a last resort. > > Coastal councils have been ordered to develop coastal hazard plans according to these policies, and the latest council to get one is the Shire of Gingin. > > Engineering firm Cardno’s draft plan depicts the threats Seabird, Lancelin and Ledge Point communities face, and people’s real prospect of being abandoned to deal with financial ruin. > > The shire, with just 1300-odd ratepayers across those areas, is unlikely to have the tens of millions required to buy back homes or build and maintain protective structures across all three towns. > > And governments are under no legal obligation to buy back land or compensate people if property is lost to the sea** [Read more here] The costs of global warming and climate change aren't in some dim and distant future. They are happening right now. And they will only get worse. --- Erosion at Grace Darling Park, Lancelin, late last winter. --- Erosion protection (sandbags) on Marmion Beach, West Coast Highway. Photo: David Prestipino. --- Lancelin after the last storm season. (Source of all pictures: The Age)

President Donald Trump's attempt to give Argentina's fledgling economy financial assistance is creating a headache for him back in the U.S.

The president’s threats to attack Venezuela are regressive, dangerous and almost certain to backfire, says Guardian foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdall

A cartoon by Joe Dator of The New Yorker.

Witnesses screamed ‘he’s got a bomb’ and ‘shoot him’ before suspect was killed by armed police

The chart below shows two different measures of average world Central Bank discount rates. The first is a GDP-weighted average covering the countries which together make up 83% of world GDP, the other shows the median discount rate (unweighted by GDP). Half (by number) of CB discount rates are below the median, and half above. CBs raised their discount rates when inflation rose during the rebound from the covid crash, and have been cutting them as inflation fell and economic growth stopped. Economies respond to falling (or rising) interest rates with a lag, which varies from cycle to cycle, and even from country to country, but which is something between 1 and 2 years, so we would expect world economic activity to be now accelerating. Trump's trade war has complicated this normal process, and though its effect will be mostly felt in the US, it will have some effect on global growth. The US is stagnating; in other countries on the whole, growth is picking up. However, it may be too early to see just how bad swingeing us tariffs, combined with a US recession, will be for US trade partners. If the effect is negative, you can expect CBs outside the US to cut rates faster, but the Fed may be unwilling to cut the Fed Funds rate as inflation accelerates. --- As usual, click on the chart to see a clearer image.