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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 9d

There is still *one day* left to post a public comment in response to this proposed regulation. You can do so here: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20... either under your name (as I did) or anonymously.

There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 12d

"...particularly for an administration that has eschewed large foreign interventions"

I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)

Trump-pledged support for Argentina stirs anger among Republicans

Powerful agriculture groups and their Republican allies in Congress are sounding alarms about the deal.

www.politico.com

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 18d

Isn’t this extremely blatantly illegal and unenforceable? H1B fees are set by Congressional statute. I’m confused why all the reporting treats this as a real thing.

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 28d

There are advantages to keeping the locus of debate more local. Election admin has become more politicized in recent years but not as much as most other issues. And people trust their local officials. Congressional hearings could polarize it further. But, as always, tough to know the right strategy

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 28d

Thanks for sharing the paywall-free link! The good news here is that most election officials (from both parties) have balked at these requests for obvious reasons. And it is going to be hard for them to really mess with the existing infrastructure. Doesn’t mean they can’t try and seed doubts tho!

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 28d

Correct. I think it’s smart for Democrats in Congress to remain engaged with a large range of constituencies while still pushing for a shutdown as leverage with the administration. That doesn’t seem contradictory at all

Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 28d

Alternative way of looking at this: if you are interested in promoting elite splits in the regime and its support network, this very much could be the way…

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 28d

Either the authoritarianism requires total opposition now, or this, but you can't have both. You need to choose.

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · Sep 7

I totally agree that "Stop Acting Like This Is Normal" is the right approach. But then what is this? 🤷‍♂️

www.abundancedc.org/speakers

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · 28d

One of the greatest safeguards for American democracy (in contrast with other backsliding cases) is the decentralized nature of its election infrastructure, in the hands of states/localities. The Trump administration is trying to whittle that away. Alarming new report with some of the details:

Trump Administration Quietly Seeks to Build National Voter Roll

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Oren Samet

Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 6

This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state

A brief 🧵 on potential implications

Noan Sereiboth @noansereiboth.bsky.social · Sep 6

Acting Head of State Hun Sen has promulgated the amendments to the Nationality Law. The amendments allow revocation of Cambodian citizenship from dual nationals and citizens deemed likely to obtain another nationality or foreign protection.

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 6

I don’t understand the point of this comment. Is the suggestion that this is normal and acceptable? It’s also inaccurate re: US and very different rule of law contexts

Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 6

I don’t really think this is a fair characterization. The number of times I’ve seen the US compared *by Americans* to 1930s Germany, or Peronist Argentina, or Orban’s Hungary…

There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!

Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · Sep 6

The biggest analytical weakness of Americans in trying to understand the current moment is that their powers of analogy begin and end with US history. The idea that something qualitatively different might be arising simply doesn’t occur to them.

Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 6

This is the next step. Lower level defections apparently aren't enough. They want to aim higher, and this is part of the plan

Cambodia's regime is hardening. The road ahead for opposition becomes even more challenging

Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 6

They have spent the past several years turning the screws to get former CNRP members to defect to the ruling party. It's worked to a large extent (1,000s of lower level officials have embraced the ruling party), but they still aren't satisfied

www.rfa.org/english/news...

More opposition defections lift Cambodia’s ruling party ahead of July election

Three opposition figures send hand-written apologies and pre-recorded videos to Hun Sen in recent days.

www.rfa.org

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 6

The charges were bogus then, and they're bogus now. But the Kem Sokha case demonstrates the extent to which the regime is willing to wield this weapon

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 6

Charges of "treason" were the basis for arresting and convicting opposition leader Kem Sokha, and used as an excuse to dissolve his Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) in 2017

www.hrw.org/news/2023/03...

Cambodia: Opposition Leader Convicted on Bogus Charges

The Phnom Penh municipal court on March 3, 2023, found the Cambodian political opposition leader Kem Sokha guilty of treason and sentenced him to a 27 year prison sentence, and indefinitely suspended ...

www.hrw.org

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 6

This makes for a dangerous combination. The gov will likely use this law to further turn the screws on opposition leaders like Sam Rainsy and others, potentially stripping them of citizenship outright or wielding the threat to try and control them

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 6

Two points of context are critical:

1) after years of crackdown, much of the remaining opposition is in exile, and many hold dual citizenship

2) The Cambodian regime has not been shy about weaponizing claims about "foreign conspiracies" and "treason" in the past

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 6

This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state

A brief 🧵 on potential implications

Noan Sereiboth @noansereiboth.bsky.social · Sep 6

Acting Head of State Hun Sen has promulgated the amendments to the Nationality Law. The amendments allow revocation of Cambodian citizenship from dual nationals and citizens deemed likely to obtain another nationality or foreign protection.

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 4

To be fair, some of that is selection bias. Two more from the Orange side were just blocked from becoming PM in the first place

Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 3

True. A big question is whether these judges prioritize that form of respect or the maximization of partisan aims. I’ve tended to think the former is important and thus viewed earlier rulings as preemptive compliance to bolster institutional credibility. But that interpretation is under strain

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 3

I did write these words yesterday and ponder how close we are to that reality in the United States right now

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 3

Thailand would like a word

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Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 3

Combined as well with the pullback in diplomatic support for democracy/rights. The potential broader consequences of this kind of ecosystem collapse might be hard to overturn, I fear

This is from a working paper I have stashed away (with @jennieb7.bsky.social and @sdhyde.bsky.social ).

Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 3

The US cuts are obviously the most dramatic and make up a huge share of the total drop in ODA. But there are pretty steep declines elsewhere, and they are all compounding one another

Oren Samet @osamet.bsky.social · Sep 3

“Ecosystem collapse” is definitely an apt description. I feel like outside the sector there hasn’t really been an effort to grapple with the implications. Consequence of so many crises unfolding at once, I suppose

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