Paul Bivand
paulbivand.bsky.social
Paul Bivand
@paulbivand.bsky.social
Labour market stats wonk: default mode: cynical. Boosts are not endorsements and may be ironic. Also on avian-dinosaur-site @PaulBivand
It's all there in Jonathan Swift's Modest Proposal in 1759... About the Irish.
November 28, 2025 at 9:37 AM
You have to get the buttons pressed on both sides of the road at exactly the same time and interval...
November 27, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Reposted by Paul Bivand
70% of the additional spending from removing the two-child limit will go to families who are in work. This is targeting support for low-income working households who are being priced out of a decent standard of living despite doing everything asked of them.
November 27, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Got my copy of the Bullock report on industrial democracy (1976) out of the bookshelf for the first time in ages. Complete with employer minority report.
November 27, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Benefit cap excludes those working (enough £) and those on UC Health post WCA, so very much the minority still affected. The DWP spreadsheet linked says how many families benefit by the change (excluding the still benefit capped). www.gov.uk/government/p...
Poverty impacts of social security changes at Budget 2025
Estimates of the impact of social security changes at Budget 2025 on low income poverty levels.
www.gov.uk
November 27, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Getting more/higher rate Patreons may be part of the hype/plan to get this ground-truthed.
November 27, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Reposted by Paul Bivand
And the £1 billion extra employment support results in 20,000 to 40,000 people getting into work by 2029/30. This is more pessimistic than our estimates at the time (45,000-95,000), which @learnworkuk.bsky.social produced for us: 3/3 learningandwork.org.uk/resources/re...
Estimating the impacts of extra employment support for disabled people
learningandwork.org.uk
November 26, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Guess so - presenting it as households and all children in those households rather than the number of children benefiting is rather odd.
November 26, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Looks like it. Probably witter on about work incentives if asked. May say less about UC LCWRA incentives.
November 26, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Will be appearing in Labour MP socials in 10,9,8,7....
November 26, 2025 at 3:00 PM
DWP has published a spreadsheet at www.gov.uk/government/p... on the number of Universal Credit households and children not receiving a child element for at least one child and not Benefit Capped, by Parliamentary Constituency, April 2025. So they know...
Poverty impacts of social security changes at Budget 2025
Estimates of the impact of social security changes at Budget 2025 on low income poverty levels.
www.gov.uk
November 26, 2025 at 2:51 PM