Paul Bivand
@paulbivand.bsky.social
1.2K followers 1K following 910 posts
Labour market stats wonk: default mode: cynical. Boosts are not endorsements and may be ironic. Also on avian-dinosaur-site @PaulBivand
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
Reposted by Paul Bivand
omaromalleykhan.bsky.social
Sometimes a statistic is counterintuitive. This is not one: every adult in Britain has experienced greater interaction with people of different ethnic backgrounds over their lifetime

As I say in this thread, this statistical fact is obvious in every aspect of our lives, & all of us know/feel it
omaromalleykhan.bsky.social
I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter

Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them
Reposted by Paul Bivand
Reposted by Paul Bivand
hetanshah.bsky.social
Great column from @sarahoconnorft.ft.com where she casts her forensic eye over the introduction of collective bargaining in the social care sector. TL:DR it could work given adult care is a weird market largely paid for by local authorities; but as usual will there be enough cash? on.ft.com/4mSfeVm
The most radical Labour plan you haven’t heard about
Collective bargaining in social care could save an ailing sector — but only if it’s done properly
on.ft.com
paulbivand.bsky.social
Looked at OECD data on ageing population, and think we may have missed the fiscal effects of declining numbers of children. OECD chart ages only, France as similar population, more extreme changes.
Chart from OECD data showing age dependency rations (of 20-64 population) for UK and France from 1950 on.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
samfr.bsky.social
This whole obsession with "too many people going to uni" is such a classic example of the parochialism of UK policymaking. No one bothers to ask why the % here is lower than in most other developed countries or whether that might be relevant.
paulbivand.bsky.social
Visiting Czechoslovakia in 1972, 4 years after the tanks went in, might be a study in propaganda.
paulbivand.bsky.social
With the demand following graduate earnings premia over A Levels or GCSEs. The case for young people doing qualifications below degrees based on earning/employment isn't clear, despite loud (and usually self-interested) voices.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
jamesrball.com
A pub in London Fields is trying to put up a timber canopy over its outside seating.

The planning process so far has taken FIVE YEARS. That’s longer than it took to build the entire Hoover Dam. capx.co/nimby-watch-...
READ MORE
Hackney council is coming down on a popular East London pub
capx.co
paulbivand.bsky.social
Fortunately, no evidence yet that AI thinks hallucinating debts is just fine.
paulbivand.bsky.social
So this is a partially AI report into the earlier version of AI known as 'Robodebt' which penalised low-income Australians on imaginary evidence. @annadent.bsky.social
Reposted by Paul Bivand
jamesrball.com
Reminder: this is to put a canopy on an existing outdoor pub deck. 🙃
Let’s take a look at this application. The application form is 21 pages long, and that’s just the very beginning. It has 26 supporting documents attached to it. Among them is a 16-page proposal document prepared by the consultancy Magenta Planning. There is a six page long form on the Community Infrastructure Levy. There is a 14-page long biodiversity survey and report, prepared by Arbtech, a second consultancy. That’s in turn dwarfed by a 59-page long heritage assessment, produced by Cotswold Archaeology – a third consultancy. And there’s absolutely no guarantee that this application will even succeed.
paulbivand.bsky.social
Though on the nimby/yimby dimension, conservatives look more like Lib Dems and Ramsay/Chowns Greens, and fairly clearly that has had an impact on local council votes.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
resfoundation.bsky.social
None of the proposed two-child limit options are as efficient in lifting children out of poverty as fully scrapping the policy.

Fully abolishing the two-child limit should be the starting point of any successful Child Poverty Strategy.

Read more➡️ buff.ly/DyvTYGN
Table 1 shows the cost per child lifted out of poverty for fully scrapping the two-child limit 
and each of the floated options. The only option that has a similar cost-effectiveness to full 
abolition is exempting families who are in work, at £7,540 per child lifted out of poverty, 
(compared to £7,480 for full abolition). The lower cost-effectiveness of the other options 
should be considered alongside the issues outlined above that each option would introduce.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
garius.bsky.social
A lot of people don't understand how pensions (or benefits) really work.

They picture a national savings account in which their 'own' taxes are stored until they retire.

Not that they were paying for the person before them, and now someone else is doing it for them, so inflation doesn't screw them
silversprite.bsky.social
On a bus. Fares across Worcestershire are £1 per journey every weekend in October.

Four seniors boarded. They are loudly complaining. Quote: "They shouldn't do this £1 fare. It's workshy folk getting stuff for free yet again. No-one gives us pensioners anything."

The seniors all used bus passes.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
workfoundation.bsky.social
🏆 Our #ResearchOfTheMonth goes to @timewise.bsky.social for their research paper 'Healthy By Design?' which shows that just 60,000 of the 2.4 million people economically inactive due to long-term ill health find a job each year. (1/5)

Read here: timewise.co.uk/article/why-...
Front cover of Timewise report, Health by design? Why better jobs for all should be a goal for UK Industrial Policy.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
rathfelder.bsky.social
Having children leads to a substantial and long-lasting reduction in mothers’ earnings; five years after the birth of a first child (Quarter 20), monthly earnings were reduced on average by 42%, or £1,051 per month, compared with earnings one year before the birth. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
The impact of motherhood on monthly employee earnings and employment status, England - Office for National Statistics
The change in employee earnings and employment after having a first, second and third child, for people with children.
www.ons.gov.uk
Reposted by Paul Bivand
merchantshallyork.org
Things in our collections with a smile, for #worldsmileday

A thread. 🧵😃
We are looking at three ceramic jugs. Two of which have bearded faces on the necks and look very cheery indeed.
paulbivand.bsky.social
Mentioned in the paper.... But looks like the calculations relate only to the 2-child policy. The options look like rolling pitches for ones that would poll better. The one they've missed off (because there isn't data...) is exempting children born before the claim started.
paulbivand.bsky.social
She grew up under a series of military dictatorships, which unlike some others, did not claim to be socialist.
paulbivand.bsky.social
The 65 is partly of international comparison. OECD do data for old age dependency, young age dependency and total dependency as % of population 20-64. UK total dependency in those terms peaked at 81% in 1975, minimum 67% in 2007, now up to 72%. Big shift in dependency from young to old.
Reposted by Paul Bivand
gavinjackson.bsky.social
Looking and thinking about this graph: it’s weird that they only do 65+ when children are also dependents and the state pension age is 67.
stevensenior.bsky.social
I think it would do people good to spend more time looking at and thinking about this graph.

From the excellent www.gov.uk/government/p...
A graph showing the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 people from around 1950 to present with projections to 2065. The ratio is flat between 1970 and 2010 ish and then starts to increase. The projection is for the ratio to roughly double by 2065.
paulbivand.bsky.social
Led by the most highly skilled, tool makers as I remember.
paulbivand.bsky.social
That looks like the generation that weren't socialised through manufacturing jobs and union closed shops, but through Youth Training Schemes.